GET DAILY SIGNALSApple (AAPL) Reports Record Revenue of $114.5 Billion, Up +12%
Key Takeaways
- Apple posted record September-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% year over year and above the $113.39 billion consensus.
- Diluted EPS (earnings per share) rose 14% to $2.10, beating the $1.99 estimate — helped by roughly $0.05 per share from a one-time tariff refund.
- iPhone revenue climbed 17% to $57.6 billion and Mac surged 24% to $10.8 billion, while iPad (down 10%) and wearables (down 8%) lagged.
- Services set an all-time record of $31.6 billion (up 10%), and the active-device installed base reached a new high across all major categories and regions.
- Gross margin of 47.9% included about one percentage point of tariff-refund benefit, a one-time lift that drew close attention from analysts.
Why This Quarter Matters
Apple's fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, ended September 27, 2026, marked the first full earnings cycle under new CEO John Ternus and capped a fiscal year the company called its best ever. I was watching closely because the quarter captured the first weeks of iPhone 18 Pro sales, even though the flagship foldable "iPhone Duo" did not launch until after the period closed. With shares up roughly 27% year to date heading into the report, expectations were high. The results mattered not only for Apple's product momentum but also for gauging Services growth, China demand, and whether rising costs could pressure profitability in the quarters ahead. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
Apple reported total revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% year over year and ahead of the $113.39 billion consensus. Diluted EPS came in at $2.10, a 14% increase that exceeded the $1.99 estimate, while net income rose 12% to $30.71 billion. Gross margin was 47.9%, above the expected 47.5%, and operating income increased 10% to $35.63 billion.
Product strength was the story. iPhone revenue reached $57.6 billion, up 17% and above the $56.48 billion estimate, while Mac revenue climbed 24% to $10.8 billion, topping the $9.69 billion forecast. Services grew 10% to an all-time record of $31.6 billion, essentially in line with expectations. The quarter was not uniformly strong: iPad revenue fell 10% to $6.2 billion and wearables, home, and accessories declined 8% to $8.3 billion, both missing consensus. Greater China revenue rose 21% to $17.5 billion but fell short of the $18.55 billion estimate.
A notable caveat: the beat was partly padded by a one-time tariff refund that added about one percentage point to gross margin and $0.05 to EPS. Excluding that item, underlying earnings growth was closer to sales growth. From what I see, this detail helps explain why the market did not react more strongly.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite a headline beat, the market's initial response was muted. Shares were roughly flat to slightly lower in after-hours trading, reflecting investor focus on the one-time nature of the tariff refund and on softer results in iPad, wearables, and Greater China. Heading into the report, sentiment had been strong, with AAPL a favored megacap tech name and the stock up about 27% for the year. The cautious reaction suggests that, while the core iPhone and Mac franchises delivered, Wall Street is already looking past the September quarter toward the competitive holiday season and the margin implications of a crowded product lineup.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The next report to watch is Apple's fiscal 2027 first quarter, which captures the critical holiday shopping season. This period will be the first full test of the new iPhone Duo foldable, which went on sale October 23, alongside the iPhone 18 lineup and a rebuilt Siri. A product launch this broad could pull forward upgrades, but it also raises the stakes for supply availability and component costs.
Investors should monitor gross margin closely, since the tariff-refund tailwind will not repeat. Management indicated that higher memory costs had already pressured margins on a sequential basis when excluding refunds, and early production runs of new hardware can carry higher costs.
Research and development (R&D) spending also bears watching: it rose 32% year over year to $11.73 billion, reflecting heavy investment in AI, software, and new devices. Finally, watch for any commentary on China, where AI software recently received approval, and on whether the record installed base translates into continued Services momentum. These factors, rather than a single quarter's headline numbers, will likely shape investor sentiment going forward. I’m watching this closely as the details unfold.
Exploring AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my own research process, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics. It helps surface relevant ideas and compare names like AAPL against peers without spending hours on manual work, giving a data-driven starting point before diving into the numbers.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for AAPL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AAPL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 64 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 50 of the 64 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAPL advanced for three days, in 230 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 197 of 307 cases where AAPL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 31 of 62 cases where AAPL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAPL turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAPL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAPL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAPL's P/B Ratio (45.922) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.970). P/E Ratio (38.621) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.650). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.709) is also within normal values, averaging (4.647). Dividend Yield (0.003) settles around the average of (1.690) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.526) is also within normal values, averaging (4.260).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a manufacturer of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players
Industry ComputerPeripherals
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