GET DAILY SIGNALSAsbury Automotive (ABG): Path to +26% Upside on Analyst Targets
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $260 is the average of the three recent analyst price targets that remain above the current price — Seaport Research ($300), Craig-Hallum ($250) and Bank of America ($232).
- The latest verified close is $206.67, so reaching $260 implies roughly 26% upside — a substantial move that would also exceed the stock's 52-week high.
- The overall analyst mean is lower, near $224 (S&P Global, 11 analysts), with a wide range of roughly $184 to $295; the full mean sits only about 8% above the current price.
- The strongest support comes from a near-trough valuation (about 8x trailing earnings), completed technology rollouts, aggressive buybacks, and upgrades citing a 2027 earnings inflection.
- The biggest risks are declining earnings, new-vehicle margin normalization, elevated leverage, and a consumer cyclicality tied to interest rates.
- Explore Major News, Today's Price Move, the Forecast, and Earnings pages for more context on ABG.
- Discover actionable ideas with Trending AI Robots.
Understanding the Analyst Consensus for ABG
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) is a U.S. automotive retailer operating roughly 155 dealerships across 14 states and 34 brands, alongside its Total Care Auto (TCA) finance-and-insurance segment. S&P Global polls 11 analysts covering the stock, with an average price target near $224 and a range spanning about $184 to $295 — unusually wide, reflecting genuine disagreement on the cycle.
That overall mean is only about 8% above the latest close, below a meaningful 10% threshold. Accordingly, the central target here is the average of the recent analyst targets that remain above the current price: Seaport Research's Glenn Chin set a $300 target (upgrade to Buy, September 2026), Craig-Hallum set $250 (upgrade to Buy, October 2026), and Bank of America reiterated Buy at $232 (October 2026). Their average rounds to $260. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Views diverge sharply. Bullish firms argue Asbury has passed an earnings trough, that technology integrations are complete, and that shares trade at near-cyclical-trough multiples. More cautious analysts — including JPMorgan (Underweight, $220), UBS (Neutral, $204) and Citigroup (Neutral, $212) — point to softening near-term fundamentals and margin pressure.
Current Position and Potential Move to Target
At the latest verified close of $206.67, moving to $260 requires about a 26% advance. Asbury rallied roughly 20% over the preceding week following third-quarter results and a cluster of upgrades, so a further 26% would represent a substantial continuation.
The path depends on whether earnings trough. Third-quarter revenue fell about 8% year over year to $4.4 billion, and net income declined roughly 29% to $105 million, pressured by lower new-vehicle margins. Analysts on the bullish side expect an inflection into 2027 as the Herb Chambers acquisition is digested, Tekion dealership-management technology is fully deployed, and Total Care Auto protection products roll out across all stores.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Valuation: The stock trades near 8x trailing earnings and a single-digit forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio), near cyclical-trough levels.
- Buybacks: Asbury repurchased about $278 million of stock in the first nine months of 2026, reducing share count.
- Stable parts-and-service mix: Higher-margin fixed operations and finance-and-insurance revenue provide a less cyclical earnings base.
- Operational catalysts: Completed Tekion and Total Care Auto rollouts are seen as efficiency and earnings drivers.
- Analyst revisions: Recent upgrades to Buy from Seaport and Craig-Hallum signal improving sentiment.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Earnings decline: Quarterly net income is still contracting, and another miss could reset expectations lower.
- Margin normalization: New-vehicle gross profit per unit remains under pressure as supply normalizes.
- Leverage: Total debt of about $5.4 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio above 130% leave limited balance-sheet flexibility.
- Rate sensitivity: Higher financing costs can dampen vehicle demand across the consumer-discretionary sector.
- Valuation compression risk: If 2027 growth disappoints, today's "cheap" multiple may prove justified rather than an opportunity.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The 52-week high of $258.75 is the most important resistance level, sitting just below the $260 target — reaching the target would require clearing this prior peak. The 52-week low of $160.30 marks the lower bound of the recent range. After the sharp recent advance from the mid-$170s, the $200 round-number level and the prior high near $259 are key zones to watch, as a failure to hold gains could signal a retreat toward support.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual analysts apply differing assumptions. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings and guidance (the next report is anticipated in early February 2027), same-store sales and new-vehicle margins, progress on Tekion and Total Care Auto, buyback activity, debt reduction, and any further analyst target revisions. Interest-rate decisions and broader auto-demand data also matter for the cycle. From what I see, keeping an eye on these factors helps clarify whether the bullish case holds.
AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals helpful for tracking momentum in names like ABG. The tool uses artificial intelligence to monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs in real time, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on technical behavior and market conditions. It serves as a useful complement when reviewing consumer-discretionary holdings or sector trends, allowing quicker identification of shifts without replacing traditional analysis.
Final Assessment
The $260 central target is the average of three recent analyst price targets above the current price, not an official consensus — and it sits well above the broader mean of roughly $224, underscoring how divided the Street is on Asbury. Reaching $260 would require a substantial gain of about 26%, including a break above the 52-week high. A genuine 2027 earnings inflection, completed technology rollouts, and ongoing buybacks support the bull case, while still-declining earnings, margin pressure, and elevated leverage represent the principal obstacles. Investors should weigh the wide analyst dispersion and watch upcoming earnings, guidance, and target revisions before drawing conclusions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for ABG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ABG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 93 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 75 of the 93 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ABG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ABG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
ABG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ABG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 18 of 24 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +12.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ABG advanced for three days, in 218 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ABG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
ABG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ABG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 51 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.947) is normal, around the industry mean (1.497). P/E Ratio (7.691) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.449) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.207) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ABG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ABG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
an operator of an automotive retailers
Industry AutomotiveAftermarket
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