GET DAILY SIGNALSAstrana Health (ASTH) Q3 2026 Earnings: Key Numbers and Investor Focus Areas
Key Takeaways
- Astrana Health (ASTH) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 5, 2026, after the market close.
- Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $1.02 billion, near the midpoint of the company's own guidance of $1.0 billion to $1.03 billion.
- Management has guided to third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $72.5 million to $77.5 million.
- Investors will focus on medical cost trends, membership growth, and progress integrating the Prospect acquisition.
- The stock has faced added scrutiny from a GlassHouse Research short report and related securities-law inquiries, raising the stakes for this quarter's print.
- For additional context on this ticker, explore Astrana Health's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see AI-driven trading strategies in action.
Why the Report Matters
Astrana Health operates as a physician-centric, technology-powered, risk-bearing healthcare management company. Rather than relying on traditional fee-for-service models, it takes on financial risk for patient populations, so medical cost trends have a direct impact on profitability. The third-quarter release will test whether the company can maintain rapid revenue growth while controlling those costs. Second-quarter revenue climbed 49% year over year to $972.5 million, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance stands at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. With the Prospect integration in progress and ongoing investment in its AI-native operating system, this report should clarify if scale is translating into sustainable margins. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Analysts Expect
Consensus estimates call for third-quarter 2026 revenue of about $1.02 billion, which aligns with the company's guided range of $1.0 billion to $1.03 billion. Management has also guided to adjusted EBITDA of $72.5 million to $77.5 million for the quarter, reflecting expectations of continued growth in full-risk contracts and favorable cost performance.
For context, Astrana reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $972.5 million, slightly below the roughly $985.3 million consensus at the time, alongside adjusted EPS of $0.80, up from $0.55 a year earlier. After that report, the company raised its full-year outlook to revenue of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $255 million to $280 million. Analysts will be watching whether third-quarter results support that trajectory, especially given heightened attention on reserve estimates and medical cost trends.
Market Sentiment and Recent Pressure
Sentiment ahead of the report is mixed. Astrana Health shares have posted strong gains over the past year but recently faced pressure after GlassHouse Research released a short report questioning the company's profitability reliance on management estimates. The stock declined about 8% after the report, and several law firms announced investigations into potential securities-law violations. At the same time, sell-side views remain largely positive: the consensus is a Strong Buy with an average 12-month price target near $51.67, and firms including Barclays, Truist, BTIG, and Oppenheimer have raised targets or initiated coverage recently. This environment increases the importance of the earnings print as investors balance growth and raised guidance against questions on cost trends, reserve assumptions, and integration execution. From what I see, checking patterns with Tickeron’s AI Pattern Search Engine highlights how similar setups have played out in the sector.
Forward Signals to Watch
Beyond the headline revenue and adjusted EBITDA numbers, several forward-looking items deserve attention. Medical cost trends and the medical loss ratio will be key, as any adverse shift could pressure margins in a risk-bearing model. Commentary on the Prospect integration and deleveraging progress will also matter, since management has noted the balance sheet is improving ahead of plan.
Membership and contract growth in full-risk arrangements remain central to the revenue path and the ability to reach the upper end of full-year guidance. The market will also listen for any direct response to the short-seller report and whether management can provide reassurance on the integrity of reserve and cost estimates. Regulatory and legal developments from the announced investigations could affect sentiment regardless of operating results. As always, the tone of fourth-quarter guidance and any update to the full-year outlook will likely carry as much weight as the third-quarter figures themselves. I’m watching this closely for signs of sustained momentum.
Refining My Research with Tickeron
In preparing for reports like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to run scenario tests on healthcare names and see how different cost or membership outcomes might affect trading setups. It adds a useful layer when evaluating risk around earnings events and helps confirm whether a stock fits broader sector patterns before taking a position.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ASTH in downward trend: price may drop because broke its higher Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
ASTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 41 of the 50 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 54 cases where ASTH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ASTH as a result. In 69 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASTH just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where ASTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
ASTH moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +4.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASTH advanced for three days, in 241 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 118 of 195 cases where ASTH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.099) is normal, around the industry mean (204.059). P/E Ratio (42.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.581). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.498). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.091) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.485) is also within normal values, averaging (2.688).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ASTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
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