BlackBerry (BB) Shares Advance +12% in 30 Days on QNX Strength and Earnings Surprise
Key Takeaways
- BlackBerry (BB) shares climbed roughly 12% over the trailing 30 days, from $7.79 to $8.73, rebounding off early-September lows.
- The move was driven primarily by stronger-than-expected fiscal 2027 second-quarter results, with revenue up 26% and adjusted EPS of $0.07 beating consensus estimates.
- Record QNX revenue and BlackBerry's first Alloy Kore design win, which added more than $100 million to its royalty backlog, reinforced momentum in automotive software.
- Even after the rebound, the stock remains down about 16% over the trailing three months, reflecting a pullback from its early-July peak.
- Shares have gained roughly 121% year to date, supported by the company's software-defined vehicle and "physical AI" growth narrative.
BlackBerry's Current Business Focus
BlackBerry Limited is a Waterloo, Ontario-based enterprise software and Internet of Things company that has long since moved beyond the smartphones it was once known for. Today the business operates across three main segments: QNX, Secure Communications, and Licensing. QNX is an embedded, safety-certified operating system embedded in roughly 275 million vehicles and widely used in automotive infotainment and safety-critical systems. Secure Communications provides cybersecurity and mission-critical communications software to governments and regulated industries, while Licensing monetizes the company's patent portfolio. Investors follow BB primarily as a play on software-defined vehicles, centralized vehicle computing, and emerging physical AI applications. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Stock Performance: 30-Day Gain Versus Quarterly Pullback
Over the last 30 days, BB shares rose approximately 12%, advancing from a closing price of $7.79 to $8.73. That gain marks a sharp recovery from the stock's early-September trough, when shares traded near $7.46. The rebound accelerated following the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings report in late September, when the stock closed up more than 4% on elevated volume.
The longer-term picture is more mixed. Over the trailing quarter, BB is still down roughly 16%, measured from about $10.34 in late June. The stock rallied to a peak near $12.81 in early July before giving back those gains through August, ultimately bottoming near $7.46 in early September and then recovering into the most recent earnings release.
Earnings Beat and QNX Momentum Behind the Recent Advance
The primary catalyst behind the 30-day advance was BlackBerry's fiscal 2027 second-quarter results, reported for the quarter ended August 31, 2026. Total revenue rose 26% year over year to $163.3 million, ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $142 million to $146 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.07, well above the consensus estimate of about $0.04, while adjusted EBITDA increased 81% to $47.0 million. GAAP net income reached $33.9 million, marking the company's sixth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income.
QNX delivered a record quarter, with revenue up 27% to $80.3 million, driven by strength in the core automotive business. BlackBerry also announced its first Alloy Kore design win with Coretura, a commercial-vehicle software joint venture between Volvo Group and Daimler Truck, which the company described as the largest design win in QNX history and one that adds more than $100 million to its royalty backlog. Management also highlighted physical AI momentum, including the selection of QNX OS for Safety by Momenta and XHEART and added support for the Hailo-8 AI accelerator. Licensing revenue surged to $22.1 million from $6.6 million a year earlier, and the company raised its full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS guidance.
The Quarterly Pattern of Rally, Pullback, and Recovery
The quarterly trend reflects a broader "rally, pullback, and partial recovery" pattern. In late June, BlackBerry's fiscal 2027 first-quarter results — with revenue up 26% to $152.9 million — sparked a sharp rally that carried shares from around $8.60 to a peak near $12.81 by early July. That enthusiasm around the software-defined vehicle and physical AI story was followed by several weeks of consolidation and profit-taking through July and August, sending the stock back down to roughly $7.46 by early September. The most recent earnings beat and raised guidance then provided the foundation for the late-September rebound, leaving the stock higher over 30 days but still below its quarterly peak.
Key Factors to Monitor Going Forward
Looking ahead, several factors are likely to shape BB's share price. Management guided to fiscal third-quarter revenue of $143 million to $154 million and raised its full-year outlook, so quarterly execution against those targets will be closely monitored. The ramp of the Alloy Kore platform and the translation of record design-win activity into royalty revenue represent key growth signposts, as does continued adoption of the next-generation SDP 8.0 platform. On the Secure Communications side, management cited geopolitical uncertainty and U.S.-Canada trade tensions as reasons for trimming that segment's full-year outlook, a factor worth tracking. Investors are also likely to weigh BB's elevated valuation and notable year-to-date gains against the inherent lumpiness of licensing revenue and broader macroeconomic and automotive-industry conditions. From what I see, this is important because execution on these fronts will determine whether the recent rebound holds.
AI Tools I Use for Ongoing Monitoring
In my research process, I often review automated strategies through Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to compare different approaches and timeframes for stocks like this one. The platform highlights top performers across various styles, which helps me stay objective when evaluating momentum plays and longer-term trends without relying solely on manual charts.
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BB's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BB turned positive on September 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where BB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BB as a result. In 56 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
BB moved above its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +2.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BB advanced for three days, in 214 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
BB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BB entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.527) is normal, around the industry mean (17.861). P/E Ratio (67.692) is within average values for comparable stocks, (159.605). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.472) is also within normal values, averaging (3.648). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.843) is also within normal values, averaging (104.490).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of hardware and software solutions for mobile communications
Industry ComputerCommunications
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