GET DAILY SIGNALSBloomin' Brands (BLMN) Delivers Revenue Beat but Shares Slip -2.8% on Outlook Concerns
Key Takeaways
- Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) posted fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue of $944.3 million, a 1.7% year-over-year increase that topped the consensus estimate of roughly $925 million.
- Adjusted loss per share narrowed to $0.17, better than the $0.24 loss analysts had projected.
- U.S. comparable restaurant sales rose 1.9% overall, with traffic down 1.8% but offset by a 3.7% rise in average check size.
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was lifted to a $1.00 midpoint, though the near-term quarterly outlook missed Wall Street expectations.
- Shares declined about 2.8% to $10.17 in after-hours trading as investors weighed the mixed signals.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Bloomin' Brands operates Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. The company continues to focus on a multi-year effort to refresh its core Outback brand and stabilize operations. This latest quarterly update provides an important checkpoint on whether those initiatives are translating into sustainable sales and margin improvement. With the casual-dining industry still facing cautious consumer behavior, the report offers insight into how effectively pricing strategies and marketing are balancing softer traffic numbers.
Reported Results
For the quarter ended September 27, 2026, total revenue reached $944.3 million, up 1.7% from $928.8 million in the prior-year period and ahead of estimates near $925 million. The figure included roughly $13 million in gift-card breakage revenue from an accounting change; without that item, revenue was essentially flat year over year.
Adjusted diluted loss per share came in at $0.17, narrower than the $0.24 loss forecast but wider than the $0.03 loss recorded a year earlier. On a GAAP basis, the loss from continuing operations improved to $0.02 per share from $0.54 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Combined U.S. comparable restaurant sales advanced 1.9%, while traffic fell 1.8%. Outback posted a 1.9% comparable-sales gain, Carrabba's rose 0.6%, Bonefish Grill climbed 5.3%, and Fleming's was flat. Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a $1.00 midpoint, representing a 4.7% increase over prior expectations. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite the revenue beat and narrower loss, shares of BLMN fell roughly 2.8% to $10.17 in immediate post-earnings trading. The reaction appeared driven by the softer next-quarter outlook relative to consensus and ongoing traffic softness across the portfolio. While Outback has now posted five straight quarters of year-over-year gains in guest satisfaction scores, the market remains focused on how much of the sales improvement stems from pricing actions and one-time items rather than genuine increases in guest counts.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, attention will center on whether improving guest satisfaction scores can translate into positive traffic trends. The raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a $1.00 midpoint signals confidence in the second half of fiscal 2026, yet the cautious near-term outlook points to continued pressure in the coming quarter.
Several items stand out for closer watching. The “Best Steaks Ever” campaign and affordability initiatives such as the Aussie 3-Course platform will be tested for their ability to drive visits without hurting margins. Commodity, labor, and advertising cost trends will also matter, especially as marketing spend rises in the second half of the year.
The Out West franchisee bankruptcy remains another variable. Bloomin' Brands has entered a stalking-horse agreement to acquire the 61 affected restaurants, which could expand its company-owned footprint if the bid succeeds. Finally, the pace of Outback restaurant refreshes—targeted at about 85 locations in 2026—will serve as a gauge of long-term brand investment.
My Take on Using Tickeron Tools for Earnings Reviews
In my analysis of names like BLMN, I sometimes run quick screens with Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare performance metrics and pattern signals across the restaurant sector. It helps surface context on volatility and relative strength without replacing fundamental work. The tool has become a regular part of how I organize ideas around quarterly updates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BLMN saw its Stochastic Oscillator leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for BLMN moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 59 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 52 of the 59 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BLMN moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 25 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BLMN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
BLMN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BLMN as a result. In 62 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BLMN just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where BLMN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
BLMN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BLMN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +17.73% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BLMN advanced for three days, in 203 of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 118 of 180 cases where BLMN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BLMN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.933) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.873). P/E Ratio (30.469) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.745). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.120) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.062) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.173) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BLMN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of restaurants
Industry Restaurants
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