GET DAILY SIGNALSBridger Aerospace (BAER): What to Expect from Its Q3 2026 Earnings Report
Key Takeaways
- Bridger Aerospace is scheduled to report its third quarter 2026 results on November 16, 2026, after the market close, covering the period ended September 30, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus points to earnings of roughly $0.58 per share on revenue near $80–83 million, reflecting the seasonally strong peak wildfire quarter.
- Management has reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $135–145 million in revenue and $55–60 million in Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
- In last year's third quarter, Bridger delivered revenue of $67.89 million and EPS of $0.37, beating expectations and setting a high bar for this year's comparison.
- Bridger's shares have been under significant pressure, trading well below their 52-week high and far below the average analyst price target.
- For more detail on Bridger Aerospace's major news, today's price move, price targets, and forecasts, visit the dedicated ticker pages for the latest updates and analysis.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) operates as one of the largest aerial firefighting companies in the United States, with a fleet that includes Super Scooper aircraft and Air Attack surveillance planes. Wildfire demand follows a highly seasonal pattern, which makes the third quarter the company's most critical reporting period each year. This is when the bulk of annual revenue and profitability typically comes in. The upcoming results will show whether the 2026 fire season produced the fleet utilization and contract performance needed to back up management's full-year targets. In my view, the report also offers a useful check on recent strategic moves, such as longer-duration government task orders and efforts to diversify into geophysical surveying services.
Consensus Estimates and Year-Over-Year Comparisons
Analysts expect Bridger Aerospace to post a solid seasonal rebound in the third quarter of 2026. Consensus estimates call for earnings of approximately $0.58 per share on revenue in the range of $80–83 million, based on aggregated analyst forecasts. These numbers align with the peak wildfire season, when aerial firefighting hours and billings usually rise sharply. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The bar is set high by last year’s results. In the third quarter of 2025, Bridger reported revenue of $67.89 million and EPS of $0.37, which beat consensus at the time. A meaningful year-over-year revenue increase would line up with management’s reiterated 2026 outlook of $135–145 million in full-year revenue and $55–60 million in Adjusted EBITDA. Investors will likely focus on operating costs, fleet utilization rates, and the early contribution from non-seasonal initiatives such as the multi-year Texas A&M Forest Service aircraft contract and the recently announced Metatek Group aircraft services agreement, both of which are expected to scale more meaningfully in 2027.
Current Market Sentiment and Share Price Dynamics
Sentiment ahead of the report appears cautious. Bridger shares have dropped sharply from their 52-week high of $3.44 and have traded below the $0.30 level in recent sessions, even though the consensus analyst rating remains a “Strong Buy” with an average price target of roughly $3.37. The gap between analyst targets and the current share price highlights investor concerns around liquidity, a substantial debt load, and a pattern of earnings misses in prior quarters.
In the most recent quarter, Bridger missed expectations on both revenue and EPS, posting revenue of $30.49 million versus the $37.04 million consensus and a loss of $0.13 per share versus an expected $0.03 loss. The stock reacted negatively to those results. A strong seasonal quarter could help restore some credibility, while another miss would probably reinforce concerns about the company’s cash position and capital structure.
Key Factors to Watch Going Forward
Beyond the headline numbers, several forward-looking items stand out. Management’s full-year 2026 guidance remains the main reference point. If third-quarter performance keeps the company on track for $135–145 million in revenue and $55–60 million in Adjusted EBITDA, that would support the view that the peak season performed as anticipated.
Balance-sheet details will also matter. Bridger ended its second quarter with roughly $7.2 million in cash, down from $31.4 million at the start of the year, due to seasonal working capital needs and ongoing fleet investments. Management has highlighted available credit facility capacity as a buffer, yet liquidity and debt servicing costs continue to be closely watched risks.
Progress on diversification efforts deserves attention as well. Longer-duration U.S. Forest Service task orders and the Texas A&M contract point toward more predictable, less seasonal revenue streams, though meaningful contributions from these initiatives are not expected until 2027. Broader industry factors, including wildfire severity, federal and state firefighting budgets, and competitive contract awards, will shape demand for the company’s services. Commentary on fleet utilization, cost trends, and contract visibility should help clarify the outlook beyond the 2026 fire season.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When preparing for earnings reports like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and volatility metrics. It helps surface relevant comparisons and narrow down watchlists ahead of key events, which can save time when reviewing multiple companies in the same sector. This approach keeps my analysis focused on the data that matters most for the upcoming quarter.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BAER's Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in oversold zone for 21 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
BAER may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BAER turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BAER declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for BAER entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-0.031) is normal, around the industry mean (3.026). P/E Ratio (-0.286) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.906). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (5.749). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.316) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.475) is also within normal values, averaging (2.085).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BAER’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BAER’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry MiscellaneousCommercialServices
Advertisement