GET DAILY SIGNALSCalifornia Resources (CRC) Delivers Solid Q3 Results with 21% EPS Beat
Key Takeaways
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.17 exceeded the Wall Street consensus estimate of $0.97, a beat of roughly 21%.
- Reported revenue of $421 million reflected a $675 million non-cash loss on commodity derivatives, falling well short of the roughly $967 million analysts had modeled.
- Adjusted EBITDAX of $341 million topped quarterly guidance, while free cash flow climbed to $147 million from $114 million in the prior quarter.
- The board raised the quarterly dividend by about 4% to $0.42 per share, lifting the annualized payout to $1.68.
- Strategic activity advanced, including a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Bloom Energy, a roughly $90 million Uinta Basin divestiture, and the completed Crimson Midstream acquisition.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
California Resources Corporation is California's largest oil and natural gas producer and an emerging carbon management player, so its quarterly results are closely watched as a barometer of both Golden State energy output and the company's energy-transition ambitions. The third quarter tested how well CRC's low-decline, conventional asset base could convert favorable commodity prices into cash flow while management digested recent acquisitions. Coming off a period of merger-driven integration and a strategic pivot toward infrastructure, the report offered investors a clearer read on whether the company's cost discipline and free-cash-flow engine are durable enough to support both shareholder returns and its growing carbon capture and storage (CCS) platform. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how CRC compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
CRC reported adjusted diluted EPS of $1.17 for the third quarter of 2026, surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.97 by roughly 21%. The headline result, however, was complicated by derivatives accounting. Total operating revenues of $421 million included a $675 million non-cash loss on commodity derivatives tied to mark-to-market swings, which drove the figure well below the roughly $967 million consensus and produced a GAAP net loss of $315 million for the quarter.
Strip out that non-cash derivative impact and the operational picture is considerably stronger. Oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) sales totaled $1,002 million. Adjusted EBITDAX reached $341 million, exceeding guidance and edging up from $338 million in the second quarter. Free cash flow rose to $147 million from $114 million sequentially, supported by net cash from operating activities of $305 million. Oil production per day increased 13.1% year over year. From what I see, the underlying cash generation looks resilient.
Management also reaffirmed its commitment to returning capital, raising the quarterly dividend by about 4% to $0.42 per share and returning $66 million to shareholders during the quarter through dividends and share repurchases.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
CRC released its results after the market close on November 2, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for the following morning, meaning the full market reaction is still taking shape. The adjusted EPS beat and rising free cash flow are likely to be read as positives by investors focused on core operating performance, while the steep GAAP revenue miss driven by non-cash derivative mark-to-market losses may add noise and prompt questions about hedge positioning. The dividend increase and continued share buybacks signal management's confidence in cash generation. Sentiment will likely hinge on whether investors focus on the operational momentum and capital returns or on the accounting distortions from commodity derivatives, which are common across upstream producers but can obscure underlying trends.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Management's fourth-quarter guidance assumes a Brent price of $102.90 per barrel and a NYMEX natural gas price of $3.25 per Mcf, underscoring the company's sensitivity to commodity markets. Investors should watch whether realized prices and production volumes track those assumptions and how the non-cash derivative line behaves as hedging positions roll forward.
Beyond the near term, CRC is shifting from acquisition to optimization. Having built what it calls California's leading energy infrastructure platform, the company says its focus now turns to lowering costs, improving capital efficiency, and monetizing midstream, power, and carbon opportunities. Cost-reduction targets tied to the 2027 plan will be a key measure of execution.
Several catalysts are worth monitoring. The Uinta Basin divestiture, expected to close around year-end, is intended to refine the portfolio, while the Bloom Energy partnership targets up to 1 gigawatt of solid-oxide fuel cell generation paired with CCS. Progress on CRC's Carbon TerraVault sequestration projects and first CO2 injection timelines will also shape the longer-term narrative as the company balances traditional oil and gas cash flow with its energy-transition ambitions.
Exploring AI Tools for Energy Stock Analysis
When reviewing names like CRC, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter peers by fundamentals, technical patterns, and performance metrics. It helps surface comparable ideas and signals across the sector without manual effort. The tool is straightforward to use and integrates well into a broader research workflow for energy investors.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CRC in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
CRC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CRC as a result. In 66 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CRC just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where CRC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The 10-day moving average for CRC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +3.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CRC advanced for three days, in 231 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CRC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
CRC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CRC entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.448) is normal, around the industry mean (3.876). CRC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-44.368) as compared to the industry average of (4.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.439) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.263) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CRC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
an oil and natural gas exploration and production company
Industry OilGasProduction
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