GET DAILY SIGNALSCalumet (CLMT) Stock Declines -40% in 30 Days After Record Q3 Results
Key Takeaways
- CLMT shares declined roughly 40% over the last 30 days, falling from about $57.53 to a recent price near $34.47.
- The pullback occurred even as Calumet reported record third-quarter 2026 results, with revenue up 56.1% year over year and adjusted EBITDA of $347.2 million.
- Management's caution that elevated specialty margins are not the "new normal," along with planned fourth-quarter downtime, weighed on investor sentiment.
- Over the past quarter, the stock fell about 29%, reflecting a sharp rally toward $59 in mid-October followed by a steep reversal.
- The company retired roughly $265 million of high-cost debt, reducing net leverage to approximately 3x and strengthening its balance sheet.
- For additional context on this ticker, explore detailed Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
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Calumet's Business and Market Position
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT), formerly Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P., is a specialty products refiner and renewable fuels producer headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. The company operates three reportable segments: Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS), which produces specialty hydrocarbons such as base oils, solvents, and waxes; Performance Brands, which markets consumer and industrial branded products; and Montana/Renewables, anchored by its Montana Renewables facility, one of North America's largest producers of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel.
Investors follow CLMT because it sits at the intersection of a historically tight global specialty products market and the fast-growing renewable fuels transition. Its competitive strengths include an integrated specialty refining platform supported by advantaged domestic crude, a leading SAF position, and a stated strategy of converting strong cash flows into debt reduction and shareholder value. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
CLMT Stock Performance Over the Last 30 Days and Quarter
Over the last 30 days, CLMT fell approximately 40%, declining from a closing price near $57.53 in mid-October to a recent price around $34.47. The decline was sharp and broad-based, with the stock giving back much of the gains accumulated earlier in the year.
The past quarter tells a more nuanced story. Roughly three months ago, CLMT traded near $48.79. The stock then rallied to a peak around $59 in mid-October before reversing decisively, ending the quarter down approximately 29%. In short, the quarterly move was characterized by a strong upward run followed by a steep correction, leaving the stock below its level of three months prior. From what I see, reviewing the charts on Tickeron helped put these swings in perspective.
Factors Behind the 30-Day Decline
The 30-day decline reflects a combination of profit-taking after a prolonged rally and a shift in the market's interpretation of Calumet's earnings outlook. CLMT entered the period near its 52-week high, leaving shares vulnerable to a reversal.
The company's third-quarter 2026 results, reported in early November, were strong on the surface: revenue rose 56.1% year over year to $1.68 billion, and adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes reached a record $347.2 million, driven by exceptional specialty margins and record Montana Renewables results. However, management explicitly cautioned that elevated specialty margins stem from temporary global supply disruptions, with more than 10% of worldwide paraffinic base oil capacity offline, and that quarterly Specialty Products and Solutions results of roughly $250 million are not a new baseline.
Near-term operational headwinds also weighed on sentiment. Fourth-quarter guidance pointed to reduced throughput from the Shreveport turnaround completed in October and the Montana Renewables tie-in during November, along with catalyst damage from an earlier power outage limiting production rates. On the GAAP side, an unrealized derivative loss partially offset gains, contributing to a reported EPS decline versus the prior year despite the revenue beat.
Drivers of Quarterly Performance
The quarterly trend was defined by two opposing forces. Through the late summer and early autumn, CLMT rallied on a tight specialty products market, the ramp of Montana Renewables following the SET2 Renewable Volume Obligation, and progress on the MaxSAF expansion, which targets roughly 200 million gallons of annual SAF production by year-end 2028.
The subsequent reversal reflected growing recognition that a portion of the earnings surge is cyclical rather than structural. As management acknowledged, specialty margins are expected to normalize gradually once global capacity is repaired and supply chains rebuild. At the same time, the company's deleveraging progress—retiring about $265 million of debt and lowering net leverage to roughly 3x from more than 9x a year earlier—remains a durable positive that underpins the longer-term investment case even as the stock price corrected.
What to Watch Next for CLMT
Looking ahead, investors should monitor several factors. The pace of specialty margin normalization will be critical, as will the durability of paraffinic base oil pricing as offline global capacity returns. Fourth-quarter results will be shaped by the scheduled Shreveport turnaround and the Montana Renewables tie-in, with management guiding for lower near-term throughput. Progress on the MaxSAF expansion—including the 80 million annual gallon SAF run-rate target by year-end—and continued debt reduction, particularly the remaining 2028 notes and the 2029 notes becoming callable at par in January 2027, will also be closely watched. Finally, commodity and refining margins, renewable fuel credit dynamics, and broader macroeconomic conditions will continue to influence sentiment. I'm watching this closely as these elements unfold.
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CLMT's RSI Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 7 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 17 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLMT advanced for three days, in 262 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
CLMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CLMT as a result. In 51 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CLMT turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
CLMT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for CLMT entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-3.064) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-25.740) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.069) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.100) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CLMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a producer of specialty hydrocarbon products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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