GET DAILY SIGNALSCleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Delivers Q3 Turnaround as Net Income Swings to Profit
Key Takeaways
- Cleveland-Cliffs swung to net income attributable to shareholders of $152 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared with a net loss of $251 million a year earlier.
- Revenue climbed roughly 18.5% to $5.61 billion, supported by higher steel selling prices and steady shipment volumes.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $612 million, comfortably above the company's own guidance of $575 million.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations of $0.26 exceeded analyst consensus of $0.24.
- Management guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to $715 million and signaled a full-year 2026 target above $4 billion.
Why This Quarter Matters
Cleveland-Cliffs stands as a key North American flat-rolled steel producer, and its results often serve as a useful gauge for domestic steel demand, especially from the automotive sector. Following a period of losses, the third-quarter numbers marked a clear turnaround, with pricing, volumes, mix, and costs all aligning favorably. The report also carries wider relevance for those following steel pricing trends, trade developments, and supply-chain shifts. Shares reacted with a strong move higher, highlighting how operating leverage can amplify results for an integrated producer once conditions improve.
Breaking Down the Reported Figures
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, revenue reached $5.61 billion, up from $4.73 billion the prior year. Net income attributable to shareholders totaled $152 million, reversing the $251 million net loss from a year earlier, while diluted EPS from continuing operations came in at $0.26. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $612 million from $143 million a year ago and exceeded the $575 million guidance issued three months earlier. Shipments totaled about 4.2 million net tons, with the average net selling price advancing to $1,177 per ton, up $53 sequentially. Unit costs fell by $17 per net ton, which management cited as the main contributor to the EBITDA outperformance.
Compared with expectations, the $0.26 EPS topped the $0.24 consensus, though revenue of $5.61 billion landed slightly below the roughly $5.72 billion estimate, consistent with a focus on pricing and margins rather than volume growth.
Market Reaction and Broader Context
Investors welcomed the results, sending CLF shares up roughly 16% on October 19, 2026, to close near $14.10 and ending a five-day losing streak. The move reflected both the return to profitability and the solid adjusted EBITDA figure, along with constructive commentary on the fourth quarter and beyond.
Supportive industry conditions played a role as well, including higher U.S. steel index prices, longer lead times, and import volumes that stayed below historical averages. Management observed that customers are prioritizing volume security over price, which has aided margin expansion. One area of caution was the indefinite idling of galvanizing lines at the Stelco operations in Canada, presented as a response to oversupply in that market.
Guidance and Factors to Watch
Looking forward, management set fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance at $715 million, pointing to an increase of about $100 million from the third quarter even after accounting for typical seasonal factors, maintenance, higher input costs, and compensation accruals. The full-year 2026 target was raised above $4 billion, versus just $37 million in 2025.
Executives also highlighted a stronger 2027 outlook, with potential to average more than $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA per quarter under current conditions. This outlook rests on pricing momentum, new contracts, and the decision to delay the Burns Harbor C blast furnace reline until April 2028, preserving around 500,000 tons of capacity amid solid demand.
Investors will want to track U.S. steel index price trends, automotive demand and shipments, and progress toward the under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA target by mid-2027. Cost control and labor negotiations remain key variables for margin performance in coming periods.
My Research Process with Tickeron Tools
When reviewing earnings like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare CLF against industry peers on fundamentals, technical patterns, and recent performance. It helps surface comparable names efficiently and adds context to how the quarter stacks up across the sector. The tool’s customizable filters make it straightforward to scan for similar opportunities without spending hours on manual checks.
Disclaimer
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
CLF in -3.66% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CLF declined for three days, in 255 of 306 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 52 of 65 cases where CLF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CLF as a result. In 63 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CLF just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CLF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
CLF moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for CLF moved above the 200-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLF advanced for three days, in 260 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CLF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 177 of 216 cases where CLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.234) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). P/E Ratio (-7.623) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.346) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
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a miner of iron ore
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