GET DAILY SIGNALSClover Health (CLOV) Delivers Q3 2026 Revenue Beat and Improved Path to Profitability
Key Takeaways
- Clover Health reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $759.3 million, up 52.9% year over year and above analyst consensus estimates of roughly $740 million.
- GAAP earnings came in at $0.01 per share, ahead of consensus expectations of approximately breakeven, and flipped from a net loss of $24.4 million a year earlier to net income of $6.4 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $16.05 million, well above the roughly $10 million analysts had projected.
- Period-end Medicare Advantage membership climbed 45% year over year to 158,907, while the Insurance Benefit Expense Ratio (BER) improved 240 basis points to 91.1%.
- Management raised the low end of its full-year 2026 guidance, signaling expectations for the company's first full year of GAAP net income profitability.
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Why These Results Matter
Clover Health's quarterly performance serves as an important indicator of whether its technology-driven Medicare Advantage approach can turn rapid membership expansion into lasting profitability. The company has focused on growing enrollment while using its Clover Assistant platform to manage care and keep medical costs in check. Last year's third quarter saw pressure from higher utilization and new members, which weighed on margins. This report stands out because it shows whether those newer cohorts are maturing into profitable contributors and whether CLOV can maintain above-market revenue growth while protecting its Insurance BER. The broader managed-care sector is also paying attention amid elevated medical costs and shifting Medicare Advantage payment rules.
Breaking Down the Reported Figures
CLOV posted a top- and bottom-line beat in the third quarter of 2026. Revenue increased 52.9% year over year to $759.3 million, topping the consensus estimate of about $740 million. GAAP net income reached $6.4 million, or $0.01 per share, compared with a net loss of $24.4 million, or $0.05 per share, in the prior-year period. Analysts had expected roughly breakeven results. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $16.05 million, surpassing the consensus of roughly $10 million and producing a 2.1% margin. Operating margin improved to 0.8% from negative 4.9% a year earlier, and free cash flow margin rose to 9.2% from 2.3%. The improvement stemmed from strong enrollment and tighter cost control: period-end Medicare Advantage membership reached 158,907, up 45% year over year, while the Insurance BER improved 240 basis points to 91.1%. Insurance segment gross profit increased to $94.7 million from $50.3 million in the same quarter last year.
Management also raised the lower end of its full-year 2026 outlook. The company now projects total revenue of $2.97 billion to $3.00 billion, GAAP net income of $25 million to $35 million, consolidated gross profit of $540 million to $555 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $75 million to $85 million.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Shares held steady near $4.67 right after the release, showing a relatively muted initial response. This contrasts with the prior-year quarter, when a profitability shortfall and higher cost guidance led to a sharper decline. The beats on revenue, earnings per share, and adjusted EBITDA, along with the raised guidance, seem to have reassured investors that growth is starting to produce operating leverage. Sentiment remains supported by progress toward the first full year of GAAP profitability, though attention stays on whether medical cost trends remain contained as membership continues to expand.
Key Factors to Monitor Ahead
The central question going forward is whether CLOV can continue converting its large base of newer members into profitable, repeat cohorts. The updated 2026 guidance points to roughly $80 million in adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint and the first full year of GAAP net income, yet success hinges on sustaining the Insurance BER improvement.
Investors will want to track medical cost trends, including utilization and pharmacy expenses, which have been the primary variables affecting Medicare Advantage margins. Any renewed pressure in this area could offset gains from enrollment growth.
Membership momentum and the 2027 open enrollment period will also draw scrutiny, especially as CLOV competes in a market where some larger players have scaled back. Retention rates, plan benefits, and star ratings will influence payment rates and long-term growth capacity.
Finally, the rollout of Counterpart Health, the company's technology platform for providers outside its own plans, represents an additional area to follow. While still a smaller part of near-term results, success here could diversify revenue beyond the Medicare Advantage segment.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Screener for Deeper Insights
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful when comparing names like CLOV against sector peers. It lets users apply filters for technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics to surface ideas more efficiently. This kind of tool adds structure when evaluating how individual stocks fit into broader trends.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CLOV sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
CLOV saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 23, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CLOV as a result. In 67 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CLOV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 56 cases where CLOV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
CLOV moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLOV advanced for three days, in 223 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CLOV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CLOV's P/B Ratio (6.324) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.512). P/E Ratio (-112.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.100). CLOV's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.970) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CLOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CLOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
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