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Jan 10, 2019
CNBC: Last year's 'rolling bear market' is now a 'rolling bottom': Morgan Stanley

CNBC: Last year's 'rolling bear market' is now a 'rolling bottom': Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is shifting its focus from defensive stocks to cyclical stocks as Wall Street starts pulling away from bear market territory, chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson told CNBC on Tuesday.

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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.


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Q4 2025 gross profit grew about 24% year over year to roughly 2.87 billion dollars, with Cash App gross profit up about 33% and Square gross profit up around 7%. Adjusted operating income jumped to about 588 million dollars in Q4 (around a 20% margin), up strongly from the prior year. For the full year, gross profit was roughly 10.36 billion dollars, up about 17% year over year, showing broad‑based growth across the business.
NVDA shares declined 5.47% on Thursday, February 26, 2026, closing at $184.87, down from the prior session close of approximately $195.56. The primary catalyst was a "sell the news" reaction to Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings that beat estimates on every headline metric but failed to ignite meaningful buying interest.
Shares of UHS fell approximately 9.15% on February 26, 2026, closing near $209.62, down from a prior close of $230.73. The primary catalyst was a mixed Q4 2025 earnings report: adjusted EPS of $5.88 missed the consensus estimate of $5.92, and revenue of $4.49 billion fell short of the $4.50–$4.51 billion analyst forecast.
HEI shares fell approximately 9.21% on February 26, 2026, closing at $312.98 versus a prior close near $344.72. The primary catalyst was HEICO's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report, which delivered headline beats on EPS and revenue but disappointed investors on margin quality, Adjusted EBITDA, and cash flow generation.
IONQ surged +21.70% on February 26, 2026, closing at $40.88 versus the prior session's close of $33.59. The primary catalyst was a powerful Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings beat, with annual revenue of $130 million coming in 20% above guidance and representing 202% year-over-year growth.
Shares of CRWV declined approximately 11.38% in Friday's session, falling from a prior close of $97.63 to around $86.52, after the company reported Q4 2025 earnings after the bell on Thursday, February 26. The primary catalyst was a wider-than-expected net loss of $0.56 per share on EPS expectations of −$0.49, alongside a massive capex plan calling for $30–$35 billion in infrastructure spending in 2026, more than doubling the prior year.
DELL shares surged 16.64% during Friday's session, last trading around $141.65, up from the prior close of $121.45. The primary catalyst was a blowout Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings report, with revenue of $33.4 billion — up 39% year-over-year — beating consensus estimates by roughly $2 billion.
Stifel Financial (SF) appears to be down over 30% on your screen today primarily because its shares began trading split‑adjusted following a three‑for‑two stock split (a 50% stock dividend), not because of a sudden collapse in the company’s fundamentals. After the split, the per‑share price is mechanically lower, even though the underlying value of the business has not changed.
Sunrun (RUN) sank more than 35–37% today even after posting a massive Q4 beat because its outlook and strategic commentary signaled slower volume growth, tighter financing conditions, and a more defensive stance on 2026, which together triggered a sharp reset in already‑volatile solar sentiment.
PAR Technology Corp. (PAR) dropped more than 28% today after its latest earnings report, even though it beat on revenue and EPS, because investors focused on weak profitability, continued operating losses, and a wave of sharply lower analyst price targets that signaled reduced confidence in the stock’s near‑term upside.
Carter’s (CRI) dropped more than 21% today because, even though it beat Q4 expectations on both sales and earnings, management issued a much weaker 2026 earnings outlook, highlighted ongoing margin pressure from tariffs and product costs, and guided to a sharp near‑term EPS drop that jarred investors.
WES is an oil & gas midstream partnership (NYSE: WES) with largely fee‑based, long‑term volume contracts in key basins such as the Delaware and DJ, which insulate cash flows from direct oil price swings but still tie them to producer activity and throughput. Current positioning: The units trade around 41–42 dollars with a high cash yield (roughly 9% dividend), solid profitability (P/E about 14), and strong returns on equity above 40%, signaling a mature, cash‑generative infrastructure asset.
SD is a pure‑play upstream energy company with operations concentrated in U.S. onshore oil and gas, so its revenues are directly influenced by global oil and gas price movements.
TTI is an oilfield services and specialty chemicals company, not a direct oil producer, so it tends to benefit when higher oil prices lead to sustained drilling and completion activity rather than from price moves alone. The Iran war raises the odds of major supply disruptions, and several commentators see a path to Brent near 100 dollars per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is impaired, which would support energy capex and, by extension, demand for TTI’s services and fluids.
COP is a global upstream heavyweight, producing more than 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and generating over 60 billion dollars in annual revenue, with a strategy centered on disciplined capex and robust cash returns to shareholders. The Iran war introduces a structural risk premium into oil markets; if supply from the region or traffic through Hormuz is disrupted, analysts see Brent potentially trading nearer 90–100 dollars per barrel or higher, which is supportive for ConocoPhillips’ cash flows and valuation.
ONEOK is a diversified midstream operator focused on gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export of natural gas, NGLs, refined products, and crude, with most revenue coming from relatively stable fee‑based contracts. The US–Iran war increases the odds of supply disruptions or perceived risks in the Gulf, which has already contributed to higher oil and LNG prices and a persistent geopolitical risk premium.
Exxon Mobil is a global energy giant with roughly 324 billion dollars in trailing revenue, around 29 billion dollars in earnings, record production near 4.7 million barrels per day, and a long runway of projects in Guyana, the Permian, LNG and carbon capture. The Iran war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and could keep a 10–20 dollar‑per‑barrel risk premium in crude if tensions stay high, which would generally be positive for XOM’s upstream earnings and refining margins.
Chevron is a global integrated oil and gas major with growing production, a strong balance sheet, and significant exposure to long‑life projects in the Permian, LNG, and Venezuela, aiming for structurally higher cash flows through 2026 and beyond. The Iran war has increased the probability of supply disruptions or perceived risk in the Gulf, and several analysts warn that Brent could move above 100 dollars per barrel if Hormuz traffic is impaired, which would generally be supportive for Chevron’s earnings and free cash flow.