CNBC: Retail is on pace for worst December ever, but new year rally could be ahead
There's been little yuletide cheer for the retailers.
The XRT retail ETF is down 17 percent this month, tracking for its worst December since its inception in 2006.
One market watcher says indiscriminate selling may have unfairly taken retail down. READ MORE...
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for XRT turns negative, indicating new downward trend
XRT saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on August 11, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XRT turned negative on August 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
XRT moved below its 50-day moving average on August 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XRT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XRT advanced for three days, in of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XRT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 263 cases where XRT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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