CNBC: Retail is on pace for worst December ever, but new year rally could be ahead
There's been little yuletide cheer for the retailers.
The XRT retail ETF is down 17 percent this month, tracking for its worst December since its inception in 2006.
One market watcher says indiscriminate selling may have unfairly taken retail down. READ MORE...
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
XRT in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 09, 2026
XRT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 38 of 39 cases where XRT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 59 cases where XRT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XRT as a result. In 75 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XRT just turned positive on September 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where XRT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +0.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XRT advanced for three days, in 238 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XRT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for XRT entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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