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Aug 13, 2023

Coal Industry($ARLP, $BTU, $HNRG...)A Stellar 10.43% Gain Last Month - A Technical Analysis

The coal industry, a stalwart of global energy production, accounted for a laudable 10.43% gain last month, echoing its importance in worldwide energy dynamics. As coal contributes nearly 30% of global energy, its continued relevance, especially in electricity generation, cannot be understated. Heavyweights such as Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation, and Arch Coal Inc. reinforce the U.S.'s formidable position in this arena.

Tickers in Industry Coal y Hotels/Resorts/Cruiselines - $ARLP, $BTU, $HNRG, $NRP, $NC, $SXC, $HCC, $ARCH, $METC, $CEIX, $AMR, $METCB

Swing Trader, Long Only: Valuation & Efficiency Model (TA&FA) - Annualized Return + 29%

Market Capitalization – A Diverse Landscape

Diving into the heart of financial metrics, market capitalization stands out prominently. The group under scrutiny boasts an average market cap of $1.5B, oscillating between the modest $262M (NC) to a robust $3B (BTU). This diversity paints a vibrant financial canvas, allowing investors various entry points. When contrasted with the broader coal industry, the average market capitalization swells to $6.3B, ranging from a mere $134.4K to a staggering $75.9B, championed by CUAEF.

Stock Trajectory: Peaks and Valleys

The previous month's gain of 10.43% wasn't without its accompanying drama. Weekly and quarterly price growths hovered around 2.87% and 7.86%, respectively. CEIX outshone its peers with an 11.59% price ascent, while METC's descent by -7.99% served as a sobering contrast.

Peabody Energy (BTU) notably clinched top weekly gainer spots twice, registering surges of +9.44% and +5.37%. Conversely, Warrior Met Coal's (HCC) weekly decline of -9.96% served as a reminder of the industry's intrinsic volatility.

Broadening our view to the entire coal industry, a more subdued monthly growth of 2.57% emerges, suggesting varied market responses to macro and micro-economic stimuli.

Volume Dynamics: Indicators of Market Temperature

Volume, a pivotal indicator of market activity, depicted a declining trend for the group, with average weekly, monthly, and quarterly drops of -10.99%, -8.33%, and -16.2%, respectively. This decline, however, was punctuated with record-breaking surges: Hallador Energy's whopping 414%, Alpha Metallurgical Resources' 209%, and Suncoke Energy's 211% daily volume growths compared to their 65-Day Volume Moving Averages.

In comparison, the coal industry, on the whole, had a mixed bag: a weekly volume growth of 1.57% was overshadowed by monthly and quarterly dips of -9.74% and -33.24%, respectively.

Fundamental Analysis Ratings: The Subtext

While the specific ratings were not provided, fundamental analysis ratings provide a crucial underpinning to any technical analysis. On a scale where 1 shines as the best and 100 as the worst, these ratings encapsulate the financial health and prospective performance of companies within the sector.

The coal industry's 10.43% monthly gain underscores its resilience and enduring relevance. Despite the inherent volatility, the sector showcases promising opportunities for discerning investors. As always, it's pivotal to juxtapose technical metrics with fundamental analysis, enabling a holistic approach to investment strategies in the coal domain.



On August 10, 2023, BTU's 10-day RSI Oscillator exited its overbought position, hinting at a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trajectory. Investors might consider selling their holdings or exploring put options. Historical analysis by Tickeron's A.I.dvisor reveals that in 26 out of 27 previous occurrences where the RSI left the overbought zone, BTU witnessed a decline in subsequent days. This suggests a 90% probability of a downward movement for the stock.


On August 11, 2023, the 10-day RSI for HNRG exited its overbought state, suggesting a potential transition from a bullish to a bearish phase. Market participants might contemplate offloading their shares or considering put options. Historical data from Tickeron's A.I.dvisor shows that out of 33 past events where the RSI departed the overbought region, the stock declined in 29 subsequent sessions. This statistic implies an 88% likelihood of HNRG trending downwards in the near term.


On August 11, 2023, the Aroon Indicator for NRP displayed a promising bullish sign. The analysis from Tickeron's A.I.dvisor revealed that the AroonUp line surged above 70 while the AroonDown line remained under 30. Such a configuration usually anticipates a bullish trend for the stock. This could be a prime opportunity for traders to acquire shares or explore call options. Out of 277 historical events with a similar Aroon profile, the stock experienced an upward movement in 212 instances. This data suggests a 77% probability of NRP moving northward in the coming days.


ARLP sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for ARLP moved above the 200-day moving average on August 31, 2023. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 13, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ARLP as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARLP just turned positive on September 15, 2023. Looking at past instances where ARLP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARLP advanced for three days, in of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 241 cases where ARLP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARLP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ARLP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 28, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.656) is normal, around the industry mean (2.299). P/E Ratio (4.077) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.785). ARLP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (36.460). Dividend Yield (0.113) settles around the average of (0.145) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.111) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARLP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alliance Resource Partners LP (NASDAQ:ARLP).

Industry description

Companies that mine, process and distribute coal and lignite. Coal goes towards around 30% of global energy production, and is heavily relied upon for electricity generation. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., Peabody Energy Corporation and Arch Coal Inc. are major coal companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Coal Industry is 6.31B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 134.43K to 75.88B. CUAEF holds the highest valuation in this group at 75.88B. The lowest valued company is CERX at 134.43K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Coal Industry was 4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 9%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. AREC experienced the highest price growth at 26%, while ITAYY experienced the biggest fall at -7%.


The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Coal Industry was 117%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 96% and the average quarterly volume growth was 23%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 36
P/E Growth Rating: 66
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 45
Profit Risk Rating: 59
Seasonality Score: 12 (-100 ... +100)
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a producer of coal

Industry Coal

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ARLP and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARLP has been loosely correlated with CEIX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ARLP jumps, then CEIX could also see price increases.

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