GET DAILY SIGNALSCSN (SID) Earnings Preview: Narrowing Losses and Steel Margin Targets in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on November 12, 2026.
- Analysts expect a narrowed net loss of roughly $0.04 per share on revenue of about $2.15 billion, compared with a $0.12 loss and $2.24 billion in revenue in the prior quarter.
- The central question is whether steel profitability keeps climbing toward management's 15% to 17% second-half EBITDA margin target.
- Mining remains a swing factor, with softer iron ore prices and higher freight costs pressuring realized revenue per ton.
- Investors are also watching for progress on the planned cement divestiture and efforts to reduce net leverage, which ticked up to 3.49x last quarter.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
This report matters because (SID), one of Brazil's largest integrated steel and mining groups, is trying to prove that its operating turnaround is durable rather than a single strong quarter. Last quarter the company delivered record cement results, returned steel margins to double digits, and generated positive free cash flow, yet still swung to a deeper net loss because of currency-driven financial expenses. With shares trading well below their longer-term averages, the Q3 2026 update will test whether management's confident guidance on steel margins and asset sales is translating into sustained improvement. In my view, this is a key checkpoint for investors weighing the company's recovery.
What Analysts Are Expecting
Heading into the release, Wall Street's consensus is relatively modest. Analysts polled by EarningsWhispers expect a loss of about $0.04 per share on revenue of roughly $2.15 billion. That would mark a narrower loss than the $0.12 reported in Q2 2026 but fall short of the $0.01 profit recorded a year earlier, with revenue essentially flat year over year. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The headline numbers, however, may matter less than the composition of results. Management lifted its steel EBITDA margin guidance to 15% to 17% for the second half of 2026, up from 10.5% in Q2, betting on Brazil's anti-dumping regime to curb imports. Investors will also scrutinize mining performance, where lower iron ore prices and elevated freight costs weighed on realized revenue per ton last quarter. Cement pricing and progress on the cement divestiture are additional metrics to watch.
Market Sentiment Ahead of the Release
Sentiment heading into this report is cautious. Since (SID)'s prior quarterly release, the shares have pulled back meaningfully and are trading near recent lows and well below their 200-day moving average. That divergence suggests the market remains skeptical about execution rather than about the recovery plan itself. Key risk factors include the possibility that steel margins stall near 10% instead of advancing toward the mid-teens, that iron ore price weakness and higher freight costs continue to pressure mining cash flow, or that the cement sale and infrastructure divestiture take longer than expected to close. A clear miss on steel margins would likely reinforce doubts about the pace of the turnaround, while evidence of continued margin expansion could prompt a reassessment.
What I’ll Be Watching After the Report
The most important factor to monitor after this report is the trajectory of (SID)'s steel EBITDA margin. Management's guidance of 15% to 17% for the second half depends heavily on Brazil's anti-dumping measures holding back import competition. Any sign that import penetration is creeping back up through alternative routes would challenge that outlook.
Mining will be another area to watch closely. Iron ore prices have remained below the $100 mark, and freight costs tied to broader logistics disruptions have stayed elevated. Even if shipment volumes recover, higher costs could limit the cash-flow benefit, so investors should track realized revenue per ton and cost per ton of production.
On the balance sheet, progress toward signed deals on the cement divestiture and a minority stake sale in infrastructure will be central. Net leverage edged higher last quarter, and evidence that free cash flow stayed positive and that inventory reduction continued would support the deleveraging story. Finally, currency movements remain a persistent wildcard, given that foreign-exchange effects have repeatedly amplified quarterly losses.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When preparing for earnings reports like this one from (SID), I often rely on Tickeron's AI Screener to quickly filter peers in the steel and mining sectors by fundamentals, technical patterns, and AI-driven signals. It helps me spot comparisons and emerging trends more efficiently than manual checks alone, giving a clearer picture of where the company stands relative to the broader group.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SID in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SID crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 19 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
SID moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SID declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for SID entered a downward trend on November 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SID's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 62 cases where SID's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SID as a result. In 68 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SID just turned positive on November 11, 2026. Looking at past instances where SID's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +9.59% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SID advanced for three days, in 177 of 240 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
SID may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.093) is normal, around the industry mean (2.084). P/E Ratio (-0.430) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.382). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). SID's Dividend Yield (0.879) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.073). P/S Ratio (0.183) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SID’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SID’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which interests in the steel, mining, cement, logistics and energy sectors
Industry Steel
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