GET DAILY SIGNALSCummins (CMI) Analyst Targets Suggest +50% Upside Potential
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $675 is the arithmetic mean of roughly 15 verified, current analyst price targets on Cummins Inc. (CMI), rounded to a clean level from a calculated mean of about $673.
- With the stock near $450, reaching $675 implies roughly 50% upside, a very large move relative to the latest verified price.
- Individual targets are unusually spread out, ranging from about $465 to $845, reflecting sharp disagreement over the pace of a truck-cycle recovery and the size of the data-center power opportunity.
- The strongest supports are power-systems demand from data centers, expanding margins, and a diversified industrial portfolio.
- The biggest risks are back-to-back quarterly revenue misses, tightened guidance, and a still-soft North America heavy-duty truck market.
- For more detail, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, the Forecast, and Earnings pages for Cummins.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see AI-driven trading strategies monitoring stocks like CMI.
Where Analysts Stand on Cummins
Cummins Inc., the Columbus, Indiana-based maker of diesel and natural-gas engines, power systems, and components, is a widely covered industrial stock. This analysis reviewed roughly 15 current, individually attributed analyst targets. The calculated arithmetic mean is approximately $673, which rounds to the $675 central target used here. Individual targets range from a cautious $465 at J.P. Morgan (analyst Tami Zakaria, November 6) to a bullish $845 at Evercore ISI, with broad aggregators showing a slightly wider $462 to $880 band.
Most revisions following the November 5 third-quarter report moved lower: Truist cut its target to $637 from $779 (maintaining Buy), Wells Fargo to $520 from $608 (Overweight), Citi to $525 from $630 (Buy), Baird to $535 from $700 (Neutral), and J.P. Morgan to $465 from $600 (Neutral). Barclays reiterated an Overweight rating with a $675 target. For context, S&P Global's consensus average sits near $662 across 22 analysts, and FactSet's median target is near $708. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The wide dispersion tells its own story. Cautious analysts emphasize slowing truck demand and a declining valuation multiple, while bullish analysts point to data-center backup-power demand and structural margin gains. No single target should be treated as more probable than another.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
Cummins shares closed near $450 in early November, roughly 39% below their 52-week high of $737.76 and only modestly above a 52-week low of $443.62. Reaching $675 would require a gain of about 50% from current levels, which must be classified as a very large move. The stock trades at a trailing P/E near 19 and a forward P/E near 13, with a dividend yield of roughly 2%.
A move toward $675 would likely require not just multiple expansion but a visible inflection in North America commercial-vehicle demand combined with sustained double-digit growth in power systems tied to data-center and electricity infrastructure spending. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $9.44 billion and net income of $1.14 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.9%, up 170 basis points year over year.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
The strongest tailwinds are secular rather than cyclical. Data-center construction and grid-reliability spending are boosting demand for Cummins' standby and prime-power generator sets, an area analysts repeatedly cite as the core upside driver. Margin expansion, even amid softer revenue, demonstrates pricing and cost discipline. The company's diversified mix—Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and the Accelera electrification segment—spreads risk, while a ~2% dividend yield and strong free cash flow offer downside support. A recovery in the heavy-duty truck cycle, even a shallow one, would remove the primary overhang. From what I see, this data-center angle stands out as particularly durable.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
The obstacles are equally clear. Cummins missed revenue consensus for a second consecutive quarter and tightened full-year guidance toward the lower end of its range. North America heavy-duty truck production remains soft, and the company competes with some of its own truck-maker customers. A sharper macroeconomic slowdown, higher interest rates, or weakness in key international joint ventures in China and India could further compress demand and multiples. Insider selling activity has also leaned negative in recent quarters, adding a cautionary signal.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
Technically, CMI sits near the bottom of its range. The 52-week low of $443.62 is the key support level to hold, with the current $450-to-$460 zone acting as near-term resistance on any rebound. Above that, the round-number $500 level and the $520-to-$535 cluster—where several post-earnings analyst targets sit—represent the next resistance zones. The prior high of $737.76 remains a distant ceiling, underscoring how far the stock has retrenched from its peak.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms vary and do not always state a horizon explicitly. Investors should watch the next earnings release (estimated around early February 2027), any updates to full-year guidance, North America Class 8 truck order data, and announcements tied to data-center power contracts. Further analyst revisions following the latest quarter will also shape whether the average target drifts higher or lower. I’m watching this closely as order trends unfold.
Using Tickeron AI Tools for Ongoing Monitoring
In my own research process, Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals provide a practical way to track stocks like CMI amid shifting analyst views and technical setups. The tool applies artificial intelligence to monitor market conditions and technical behavior, helping identify potential turning points without the need to review every chart manually. It serves as a useful complement when evaluating names with wide target ranges and recent earnings pressure.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CMI's RSI Indicator is sitting in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMI advanced for three days, in 218 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
CMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 175 of 309 cases where CMI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMI as a result. In 53 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMI turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.823) is normal, around the industry mean (3.805). P/E Ratio (22.904) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.482). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.044) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.110) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
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General Information
a maker of diesel and natural gas engines
Industry IndustrialMachinery
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