GET DAILY SIGNALSDaVita (DVA) Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Rises 4.6% but Cash Flow Draws Attention
Key Takeaways
- DaVita reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $3.58 billion, up about 4.6% year over year and slightly ahead of consensus estimates.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.82, beating analyst expectations, while GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) EPS of $3.40 reflected one-time charges.
- The company kept its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance at $14.30 to $15.20, a midpoint below some consensus views.
- Operating cash flow and free cash flow both declined sharply year over year, drawing investor attention.
- U.S. dialysis treatment volumes grew modestly, with normalized non-acquired treatment growth of 0.4%.
Why These Results Matter for Investors
DaVita stands as one of the largest providers of kidney care and dialysis services in the United States. Its quarterly updates give a clear window into treatment volumes, reimbursement trends, and cost pressures affecting the outpatient healthcare space. Most revenue comes from per-treatment payments under Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance. That makes it important to track how payor mix, volume growth, and patient care costs affect overall profitability. Heading into this report, DVA had topped consensus EPS estimates in each of the prior four quarters, so the bar was set high and guidance along with cash flow trends carried extra weight.
The Quarter in Detail
For the period ended September 30, 2026, consolidated revenue reached roughly $3.58 billion, up 4.6% from the year-ago quarter and above the consensus mark near $3.52 billion. Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.82 cleared analyst forecasts that ranged from about $3.55 to $3.78. GAAP diluted EPS landed at $3.40 after a $62 million non-cash goodwill and other asset impairment charge tied to the China operations.
Operating metrics showed modest progress. U.S. dialysis treatments totaled about 7.33 million, with normalized non-acquired treatment growth of 0.4% year over year. Revenue per treatment climbed to $415.25 from $405.15, while patient care costs per treatment rose to $280.22 from $271.23, reflecting higher compensation and supply expenses. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Cash flow came under pressure, with operating cash flow falling to $519 million from $842 million and free cash flow dropping to $276 million from $604 million. Management held full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance steady at $14.30 to $15.20, a midpoint of $14.75 that sat a bit below some consensus estimates. The company repurchased 0.6 million shares for roughly $111 million in the quarter.
How the Market Responded
Even with the revenue and adjusted EPS beats, shares of DVA moved lower in after-hours trading. Attention shifted to the unchanged guidance range and the weaker cash flow numbers. The midpoint of the EPS outlook disappointed some investors who had expected a more noticeable increase. The impairment charge and cash flow decline added to the cautious tone. This reaction highlights that earnings quality and forward visibility often outweigh a single quarter’s headline surprise. Sentiment before the report had been positive given the stock’s year-to-date gains, which may have lifted expectations and contributed to the post-release move.
What Comes Next
Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether modest treatment volume growth can translate into stronger free cash flow. Rising patient care costs per treatment could pressure margins if wages, supplies, or insurance expenses continue to climb, even as revenue per treatment improves. Reimbursement trends remain central, given the heavy reliance on Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial rates. Keeping guidance unchanged signals a measured outlook where cost control and volume trends balance reimbursement uncertainty. The China business and its impairment charge deserve ongoing monitoring because international operations can add volatility. Share repurchases will also stay in view as buybacks have supported EPS growth historically. The main questions now center on cash flow recovery, sustainable treatment growth, and whether management can raise the outlook in coming quarters.
AI Tools in My Research Process
When analyzing results like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine to gauge how broader market signals align with company-specific data. It provides an additional layer of perspective on potential price movement without replacing traditional fundamental review.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
DVA saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for DVA moved out of overbought territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 66 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 44 of the 66 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
DVA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DVA entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DVA as a result. In 61 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DVA just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where DVA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
DVA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DVA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +6.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DVA advanced for three days, in 242 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-15.338) is normal, around the industry mean (204.282). P/E Ratio (14.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.375). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.436) is also within normal values, averaging (2.498). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.096) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (2.688).
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General Information
a provider of integrated dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure
Industry HospitalNursingManagement
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