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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 04, 2020

Dollar Tree (DLTR, $80.08) beats Q4 earnings estimate; but misses same-store sales expectation

Dollar Tree Inc. reported fourth quarter earnings that came in higher than expected. However, it missed same-store sales growth estimates.

The discount retailer’s adjusted earnings for the three months ending on February 1 came in at $1.79 per share, 4 cents ahead of the Street expectations. The figure, however, is -7.25% lower than the year-ago quarter.

Group net sales increased +1.8% year-over-year to $6.32 billion in the quarter, but fell short of analysts' estimates of a $6.385 billion.

Same store sales rose +0.4% , falling behind analysts’ estimate of +1.7% (Refinitiv survey).

For the full-year, Dollar Tree projects sales in the range of $24.2 billion to $24.66 billion, and earnings of between $4.80 to $5.15 per share

Related Ticker: DLTR

DLTR sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for DLTR moved below the 200-day moving average on May 17, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 05, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DLTR as a result. In of 70 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DLTR turned negative on June 10, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 36 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DLTR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for DLTR entered a downward trend on June 21, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DLTR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DLTR advanced for three days, in of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

DLTR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 76%.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DLTR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.142) is normal, around the industry mean (10.438). DLTR's P/E Ratio (0.000) is considerably lower than the industry average of (23.893). DLTR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.130) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.813). DLTR has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.024). P/S Ratio (0.756) is also within normal values, averaging (1.244).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DLTR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 53, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG).

Industry description

Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry is 73.52B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.78K to 546.24B. WMT holds the highest valuation in this group at 546.24B. The lowest valued company is TUEMQ at 1.78K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 1%. OLLI experienced the highest price growth at 14%, while BIG experienced the biggest fall at -18%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was 31%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -10% and the average quarterly volume growth was -5%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 57
P/E Growth Rating: 57
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 49
Profit Risk Rating: 53
Seasonality Score: 42 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

an operator of discount variety stores

Industry DiscountStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Discount Stores
Address
500 Volvo Parkway
Phone
+1 757 321-5000
Employees
211826
Web
https://www.dollartree.com
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