GET DAILY SIGNALSDorman Products (DORM) Readies Q3 2026 Earnings Amid Expected EPS Pressure
Key Takeaways
- Dorman Products is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Monday, October 26, 2026, with a conference call the following morning.
- Wall Street consensus calls for earnings of roughly $2.00 per share on revenue of about $565 million, compared with $2.62 per share and $543.7 million in the year-ago quarter.
- Analysts project a year-over-year decline in EPS even as revenue is expected to rise about 4%, highlighting the impact of tariff costs and pricing actions on profitability.
- Dorman has topped consensus EPS estimates in each of its last eight quarters, but revenue has fallen short of expectations in two of the past four reports.
- Full-year 2026 guidance calls for adjusted diluted EPS of $8.50 to $8.80 and net sales growth of 3% to 5%, providing a clear benchmark for the update.
- For more on Dorman's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore these dedicated pages for additional context and data.
- Discover Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading strategies are approaching stocks like DORM in real time.
Earnings Context and Its Significance
Dorman Products serves as a key supplier in the motor vehicle aftermarket, covering replacement parts for Light Duty, Heavy Duty, and Specialty Vehicle segments. Its third-quarter 2026 report comes at a time when investors are assessing the ongoing effects of tariffs, shifts in vehicle repair demand, and the company's pricing moves. The previous quarter highlighted a notable contrast, with record adjusted EPS of $3.08 partly tied to recovery of IEEPA tariff costs, though revenue of $544.6 million missed expectations. With margins showing recovery through 2026 and full-year guidance updated, this report will test whether Dorman's cost and pricing approach can maintain progress in the latter half of the year.
What Analysts Expect for the Quarter
Consensus estimates from eight analysts point to third-quarter 2026 earnings of approximately $2.00 per share on revenue of roughly $565 million. That would represent a decline of about 24% in EPS from the $2.62 reported a year earlier, while revenue would grow around 4% from $543.7 million. The projected profit decline stems from unusually strong prior-year results and the normalization of one-time tariff recoveries, rather than any broad weakening in demand. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Investors will compare results against management's full-year 2026 outlook, which calls for net sales growth of 3% to 5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $8.50 to $8.80. Key areas to monitor include gross margin, performance in the Light Duty and Heavy Duty segments, and any updates on tariff exposure, supplier diversification, and share repurchases. Dorman has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its last eight quarters, so the quality of any beat will matter as much as the headline number itself.
Market Sentiment Heading Into the Report
Sentiment ahead of the release appears cautiously constructive. Analyst coverage holds a "Moderate Buy" rating, with five Buy ratings and three Holds, alongside an average price target near $150 compared to a recent share price around $124. Even so, the stock has experienced negative post-earnings drift since its August 2026 release, reflecting concerns over tariff costs and revenue shortfalls despite the EPS beats.
Potential risks include softer demand signals in the aftermarket, possible tariff adjustments, and margin pressure from pricing decisions. Given that recent quarters have featured strong EPS alongside occasional revenue misses, traders will focus on both the top and bottom lines for evidence of balanced growth.
Forward Themes and Areas to Watch
Looking past the headline figures, several forward-looking elements deserve attention. Tariff policy stands out first, as Dorman's guidance already factors in tariffs enacted as of early August 2026, yet any new shifts could alter cost assumptions and pricing plans. Management's comments on supplier diversification, productivity efforts, and automation will clarify how quickly margins might recover.
Segment momentum comes next. Light Duty remains the largest business and a gauge for broader consumer demand in vehicle repairs, while Heavy Duty continues to navigate an extended freight downturn. Changes in freight tonnage or dealer-channel demand could influence the outlook for that segment.
Capital allocation also merits tracking. Dorman repurchased shares aggressively in early 2026, citing a valuation dislocation at the time, and it maintains meaningful buyback authorization. Updates on continued repurchases, acquisition interest, and balance-sheet flexibility will help assess how the company intends to deploy cash as tariff-related working capital pressures ease. The October 27 conference call should offer the clearest insights on these points.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
In preparing for reports like this one, I often turn to Tickeron's AI Screener to quickly filter through industry peers and spot patterns in fundamentals or technicals that might otherwise take hours to identify manually. It helps me cross-check how DORM stacks up against similar names in the aftermarket space and refine my focus on the metrics that matter most for the quarter ahead.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
DORM's Stochastic Oscillator stays in overbought zone for 1 day
Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
DORM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DORM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
DORM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DORM entered a downward trend on September 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DORM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DORM as a result. In 61 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DORM just turned positive on September 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where DORM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +1.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DORM advanced for three days, in 206 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 20 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.453) is normal, around the industry mean (0.851). P/E Ratio (17.251) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.413). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.300) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.048) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.768) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DORM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DORM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of automotive parts
Industry AutoPartsOEM
Advertisement