GET DAILY SIGNALSAutoZone (AZO): Evaluating the Path to the $3,670 Analyst Target
Key Takeaways
- The central $3,670 analyst price target is the arithmetic mean of roughly two dozen current sell-side price targets reviewed for AutoZone, rounded to a clean level.
- At a recent price near $3,260, reaching $3,670 implies about 12.6% upside — a modest but not trivial move.
- Individual targets span a wide range, roughly $3,000 to $4,450, reflecting genuine disagreement about DIY demand and valuation.
- The strongest supports are resilient commercial (do-it-for-me) share gains, a fiscal fourth-quarter EPS beat, and aggressive share repurchases.
- The biggest risks are soft do-it-yourself (DIY) traffic, cooling same-SKU inflation, and revenue shortfalls.
- For more context, explore AutoZone's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings pages.
Analyst Consensus and Recent Adjustments
Wall Street remains broadly constructive on AZO. Independent aggregators report roughly 27 analysts covering the stock with a "Strong Buy" consensus, and average price targets cluster near $3,666 to $3,688, which supports the rounded $3,670 central target used here. The individual targets reviewed span a wide range, from about $3,000 (Mizuho, Neutral) to roughly $4,450, underscoring how divided analysts are despite the overall Buy tilt. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Recent activity shows a downward reset in targets after AutoZone's fiscal fourth-quarter report. JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers trimmed his target to $3,700 from $3,850 (Overweight), Raymond James lowered to $3,700 (Strong Buy), and Barclays cut to $3,400 (Overweight). More constructively, Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy and a $3,800 target, and Bernstein initiated with an Outperform rating and a $3,698 target. The dispersion between cautious targets near $3,000 and bullish targets above $4,000 reflects uncertainty about consumer demand, not simply disagreement over valuation.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
AZO recently traded near $3,259.70. Reaching $3,670 would require a gain of about $410, or roughly 12.6%, a modest move by equity-market standards. The stock has already rebounded sharply from its 52-week low near $2,800 set in late September and October 2026, yet it remains about 30% below its levels of a year earlier.
The path toward the target hinges on a recovery in comparable-store sales. In the fiscal fourth quarter ended August 29, 2026, AutoZone posted EPS of about $56.05, beating expectations of roughly $54.30, but revenue of about $6.6 billion came in just shy of the roughly $6.71 billion analysts had modeled, with total company same-store sales up about 1.5%. Management has signaled expectations for a return to growth in the commercial business and less-severe DIY traffic declines in fiscal 2027.
Factors That Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Commercial share gains: AutoZone has been taking share in the do-it-for-me (commercial) channel, which analysts view as the key long-term growth driver.
- Margin execution: The Q4 EPS beat reflected stronger margins, and management expects a modest gross-margin expansion in fiscal 2027.
- Share repurchases: AutoZone's aggressive buyback program has historically supported EPS growth and reduced share count.
- Resilient end-market: An aging U.S. vehicle fleet supports steady replacement-part demand, and analysts see same-SKU inflation, while cooling, remaining a modest tailwind.
Risks That Could Prevent Reaching the Target
- DIY demand softness: Declining DIY traffic has been the central headwind, and TD Cowen called AutoZone a "battleground stock" until domestic comps improve.
- Cooling inflation: Same-SKU inflation is expected to ease to about 4% in fiscal 2027 from roughly 7%, removing a pricing tailwind.
- Revenue misses: The Q4 top-line shortfall shows that margin beats alone may not sustain re-rating.
- Valuation and leverage: At roughly 20x trailing earnings and with negative book equity from buybacks, a P/E de-rating is possible if growth disappoints.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
Technically, AZO has carved out a durable bottom near the $2,800 area, its 52-week low and a major support zone. The $3,000 round number serves as psychological support, with secondary support near $3,200. On the upside, the $3,500–$3,600 zone marks a key resistance area where several analyst targets cluster, and a decisive break above it would bring the $3,670 target and then the 52-week high near $3,996 into view.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a 12-month research horizon, though individual firms apply different methodologies and multiples. Upcoming catalysts include AutoZone's next quarterly report (scheduled for early December 2026), management commentary on comparable sales and commercial momentum, and any further analyst target revisions. Investors should also watch same-SKU inflation trends, DIY traffic data, and consumer spending indicators.
Using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to monitor stocks like AZO. The tool uses artificial intelligence to generate Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on shifting market conditions and technical behavior, which can help surface opportunities and track positions more efficiently alongside traditional analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AZO in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
AZO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 38 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AZO as a result. In 48 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The 10-day moving average for AZO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +0.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AZO advanced for three days, in 185 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 105 of 240 cases where AZO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AZO moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 38 of 66 cases where AZO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AZO turned negative on November 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AZO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
AZO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AZO's P/B Ratio (-17.883) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.781). P/E Ratio (21.575) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.318) is also within normal values, averaging (1.494). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.426) is also within normal values, averaging (49.456).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AZO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories
Industry AutoPartsOEM
Advertisement