GET DAILY SIGNALSDutch Bros (BROS) Q3 Earnings: Revenue and EPS Beat but Guidance Trim Sends Shares -18% Lower
Key Takeaways
- Total revenue grew 29.8% year over year to $549.8 million, slightly above the consensus estimate of roughly $548 million.
- GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $0.20, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.25 edged past the $0.24 analyst consensus.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 29.6% to $101.1 million, beating the consensus of about $97.5 million.
- Company-operated same-shop sales rose 5.4% and systemwide same-shop sales rose 4.4%, a deceleration from prior quarters.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to approximately $380 million, below consensus, pressuring the stock.
- Shares fell roughly 18–19% in after-hours trading following the report.
Why This Quarter Matters
Dutch Bros remains one of the faster-growing names in the U.S. quick-service beverage space, and its third-quarter results offer a useful window into both unit expansion and underlying demand trends. Investors tend to focus on same-shop sales and visit patterns as indicators of brand strength, particularly as the company scales its store-opening plans. The update also matters because management’s revised full-year guidance gives the clearest signal yet on how margins and costs are developing. With the stock trading at a premium valuation relative to many peers, the market reaction highlights how much growth is already priced in ahead of each report. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The Reported Numbers
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Dutch Bros reported total revenue of $549.8 million, up 29.8% from $423.6 million a year earlier and modestly above the consensus estimate near $548 million. Net income climbed to $37.2 million from $27.3 million in the prior-year period. On a GAAP basis, diluted earnings per share were $0.20, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.25 topped the $0.24 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA increased 29.6% to $101.1 million, exceeding the roughly $97.5 million consensus. From what I see, the top-line beat was solid, but attention quickly shifted to other metrics.
Same-shop sales showed some softening compared with recent quarters. Company-operated same-shop sales rose 5.4%, with ticket up 4.4% and customer visits up 1.0%, while systemwide same-shop sales rose 4.4%. The company opened 48 new shops, 42 of them company-operated, bringing the total to 1,273 locations. Management lowered full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $380 million, below the prior range and consensus, while guiding to at least $2.1 billion in full-year revenue.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
The market’s response was sharply negative despite the headline beat. Shares fell roughly 18–19% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor disappointment with the softer full-year outlook rather than the quarter itself. Revenue and adjusted earnings beat expectations, but the lowered adjusted EBITDA guidance and a full-year revenue target that came in below consensus shifted the focus to decelerating same-shop sales momentum. The pullback suggests the market had priced in continued strong growth, leaving little room for a more cautious near-term trajectory.
Forward Outlook and What to Watch
Looking ahead, investors will watch whether same-shop sales stabilize after the third-quarter deceleration. Management reiterated 2026 guidance for at least 5% same-shop sales growth and at least 185 total system shop openings, while introducing an accelerated 2027 target of approximately 250 new shops.
Margin and cost trends remain central. The company raised its full-year capital expenditures outlook to between $370 million and $390 million, and the trimmed adjusted EBITDA guidance signals some pressure as it invests in growth initiatives. Management highlighted several catalysts in development, including a faster pace of beverage innovation, testing of new hot food platforms, enhanced digital capabilities, and a pilot delivery program.
The Phoenix East Valley franchise reacquisition, completed in July 2026, adds 32 locations and could influence company-operated sales trends in future quarters. As Dutch Bros pushes further beyond its core Western footprint, investors will be monitoring unit economics, new-market performance, and whether customer visit growth can re-accelerate without sacrificing profitability.
Using Tickeron for Deeper Analysis
I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing names like BROS. The tool lets me apply filters for technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry trends to quickly surface comparable ideas across the beverage and restaurant sectors. It has become a regular part of my research workflow for spotting relative strength or weakness without spending hours on manual screens.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BROS in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BROS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 18 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BROS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 27 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BROS just turned positive on September 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where BROS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
BROS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BROS advanced for three days, in 224 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 47 of 63 cases where BROS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BROS as a result. In 59 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BROS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
BROS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BROS entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BROS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.536) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.563). P/E Ratio (60.528) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.719). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.278) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.842) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BROS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
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