GET DAILY SIGNALSDutch Bros (BROS) Q3 Earnings: Revenue Climbs 29.8% but Guidance Cuts Trigger Sharp Selloff
Key Takeaways
- Dutch Bros reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $549.8 million, up 29.8% year over year and roughly in line with Wall Street's consensus estimate.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit per share) came in at $0.25, edging past the consensus estimate of $0.24.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached $101.1 million, an 18.4% margin that beat the roughly $97.5 million consensus.
- Company-operated same-shop sales grew 5.4%, while systemwide same-shop sales rose 4.4%, a deceleration from recent quarters.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was trimmed to at least $2.1 billion, below the consensus of roughly $2.13 billion.
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to approximately $380 million, down from a prior range of $385 million to $390 million.
- For more on BROS, including its Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore the dedicated pages linked here.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Dutch Bros has been one of the fastest-growing names in the U.S. beverage space, expanding rapidly from a drive-thru coffee concept into a broader customized-beverage platform. Its third-quarter 2026 report, released on November 4, 2026, offered investors a fresh read on whether that momentum is sustainable. Heading into the print, the stock had already slipped roughly 17% over the prior three months, reflecting rising sensitivity to any sign of slowing demand. With coffee costs pressuring margins and the company in the middle of a large food-program rollout, this quarter was closely watched as a test of both top-line durability and profitability across a larger, more expensive store base. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Dutch Bros reported total revenue of $549.8 million, a 29.8% increase from $423.6 million a year earlier and slightly above the consensus estimate of roughly $548.6 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.25, beating the $0.24 consensus, while GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) EPS was $0.20. Net income rose to $37.2 million from $27.3 million in the prior-year period.
Profitability held up better than expected, with adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million exceeding the roughly $97.5 million consensus. However, the growth engine showed signs of cooling: company-operated same-shop sales rose 5.4% and systemwide same-shop sales rose 4.4%, a deceleration from recent quarters. The company opened 48 new shops, bringing its total to 1,273 locations, and completed the reacquisition of 32 franchise locations in Phoenix's East Valley.
What disappointed investors was the forward view. Dutch Bros lowered its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to at least $2.1 billion, below the consensus near $2.13 billion, and cut adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $380 million from a prior range of $385 million to $390 million. Capital expenditure guidance was raised to between $370 million and $390 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Investors reacted negatively to the report. Dutch Bros shares fell roughly 19% in after-hours trading on November 4, 2026, dropping to around $35.35, as the market focused on the lowered guidance and decelerating same-shop sales rather than the modest earnings beat. The reaction underscores how much of the company's valuation is tied to continued high-growth execution. While management emphasized its fourteenth consecutive quarter of positive same-shop sales and ninth consecutive quarter of customer visit growth, the softer outlook and higher capital spending plan weighed on sentiment, prompting questions about near-term margin pressure and the pace of returns on accelerated expansion.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will be watching how Dutch Bros balances rapid unit growth with profitability. Management announced an accelerated target of approximately 250 new shop openings for 2027, up from its prior expansion pace, while maintaining 2026 guidance of at least 185 total system openings and same-shop sales growth of at least 5%.
Several factors will shape the next few quarters. The company's food-program rollout is expected to be largely complete across its company-operated fleet by the end of 2026, and its impact on attachment rates and margins will be closely tracked. Coffee costs remain a headwind, with management signaling roughly 60 basis points of cost pressure embedded in full-year guidance.
Investors should also monitor same-shop sales trends and customer visit growth for signs of stabilization or further deceleration, as well as how the reacquired Phoenix locations and newer markets perform. The company's path toward its long-term goal of roughly 2,029 shops by 2029 will depend on disciplined real estate execution and sustained demand in an increasingly competitive beverage category. From what I see, this is important because any sustained slowdown could affect valuation multiples going forward.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Tools for Analysis
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when evaluating names like BROS after earnings. It lets me quickly filter peers in the restaurant sector by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals, helping me spot how the recent guidance adjustments compare across the group. The tool has become a regular part of my workflow for identifying both risks and opportunities without spending hours on manual screens.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BROS in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BROS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 18 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BROS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 27 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BROS just turned positive on September 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where BROS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
BROS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BROS advanced for three days, in 224 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 47 of 63 cases where BROS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BROS as a result. In 59 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BROS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
BROS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BROS entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BROS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.536) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.563). P/E Ratio (60.528) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.719). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.278) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.842) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BROS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
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