GET DAILY SIGNALSEcopetrol (EC) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Refining Gains Face Currency and Gas Pressures
Key Takeaways
- Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC), Colombia's state-controlled energy company, will report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 12, 2026, after market close, with a management call on November 13.
- Full-year 2026 production guidance remains at 730,000–740,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), even as gas output continues to decline.
- Refining has been a standout performer, with record throughput and sharply higher margins in recent quarters helping offset weaker crude-linked revenue.
- Currency headwinds — namely appreciation of the Colombian peso — and rising logistics costs are key risks to the bottom line this quarter.
- Investors are watching the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC, Colombia's fuel-subsidy mechanism) receivable balance and progress on the planned Brava Energia acquisition in Brazil.
- For more on this ticker, explore its Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast pages.
- Discover automated trading ideas with Trending AI Robots.
Why These Earnings Matter
Ecopetrol's quarterly report carries weight beyond the company itself, given its central role in Colombia's economy and fiscal budget through taxes, royalties, and dividends. Results also provide a useful read on Latin American integrated oil producers exposed to Brent crude prices and peso volatility. In recent quarters, EC has leaned on a resilient refining segment to counter softer crude-linked revenue and a structural decline in natural gas output. With third-quarter results arriving amid shifting oil prices and a strengthening currency, the update will clarify whether cost discipline and downstream strength can sustain margins and support shareholder returns heading into year-end. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What to Expect from the Numbers
Ecopetrol has not yet published official third-quarter 2026 figures, so investors are working from guidance and prior trends. Management has reiterated a full-year production target of 730,000–740,000 boe/d, implying a recovery from first-half output of roughly 715,000 boe/d that was dented by gas declines and temporary operational disruptions.
Colombian financial media have cited company projections for the third quarter pointing to revenue in a range of about COP 33 trillion to COP 36 trillion, net income between COP 4 trillion and COP 5 trillion, and EBITDA of COP 14 trillion to COP 16.5 trillion. These figures represent expectations, not reported results, and should be read as directional rather than precise consensus. For context, Ecopetrol reported first-quarter revenue of COP 28.6 trillion with a 47% EBITDA margin, driven largely by refining strength. Watch whether refining margins — which reached roughly $29.8 per barrel in the second quarter — hold up as the key swing factor this quarter.
Investor Sentiment Heading In
Sentiment heading into the report is mixed. Ecopetrol's American Depositary Receipts have been influenced more by commodity prices and Colombian macro factors than by any single quarter. Investors enter this print balancing several positives — a robust refining business, disciplined costs, and a sizable cash position — against concerns over peso appreciation, higher freight expenses, and the persistent gas-production decline. The company's growing FEPC receivable, which reflects fuel-subsidy amounts owed to it by the government, remains a watch item because it affects cash conversion and perceived risk. Any surprise on production recovery, refining margins, or the Brava Energia deal timeline could drive outsized moves in the ADR.
What I'll Be Watching Next
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will focus on several forward-looking signals. Production trajectory is central: management's ability to reach the upper end of its full-year range will depend on offsetting natural gas declines with crude gains, including contributions from Permian Basin drilling and partner-funded projects in Colombia's Magdalena Medio region.
Refining is the other lever. Sustained throughput and margins at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries have been the main profit engine lately, so any softening in global fuel spreads could pressure results even if crude prices stay firm.
The planned acquisition of a controlling stake in Brazil's Brava Energia is another catalyst to track, as it could add reserves and roughly 42,000 barrels per day of production once completed, subject to a tender offer and regulatory approvals. Finally, the FEPC receivable and government discussions on fuel subsidies will shape both cash flow visibility and investor confidence in coming quarters.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools in My Research
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings like these. It helps me quickly filter energy names by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals, giving a clearer view of how EC stacks up against peers without spending hours on manual analysis. The tool has become a regular part of my workflow for spotting context around refining margins and production trends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
EC's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for EC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 145 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 120 of the 145 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EC as a result. In 47 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EC turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 48%.
EC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for EC's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EC advanced for three days, in 239 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
EC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EC's P/B Ratio (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.508). EC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.002) as compared to the industry average of (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.670) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). EC's Dividend Yield (0.169) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.053). P/S Ratio (0.986) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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Engages in the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas
Industry IntegratedOil
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