GET DAILY SIGNALSEmbraer (EMBJ) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Deliveries and Backlog in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on November 10, 2026, before the market opens.
- Wall Street consensus points to adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of roughly $0.87 on revenue near $2.3 billion.
- Investors will focus on aircraft deliveries, order backlog, and executive aviation demand as the quarter's key operating signals.
- Embraer has beaten EPS estimates in eight of its last twelve quarters, including a standout second-quarter 2026 report.
- The prior-year third quarter set a modest comparison base, with revenue of $2.00 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.30.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As Brazil's flagship aircraft manufacturer, Embraer operates across commercial aviation, executive jets, and defense and security. Its quarterly report offers a real-time read on global demand for regional aircraft and business jets, making it a closely watched barometer for the broader aerospace cycle. Embraer enters this release with strong recent momentum: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose about 23% year over year, and full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed in August. Because the company's results hinge heavily on delivery volumes and order flow, investors will scrutinize whether production and supply-chain execution can sustain the recovery and support a multi-year backlog build. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Earnings Expectations
For the third quarter of 2026, analysts expect Embraer to post adjusted EPS near $0.87, with individual estimates clustering in the $0.80 to $0.87 range. Consensus revenue sits at approximately $2.3 billion, though some forecasts run closer to $2.21 billion. That compares with $2.00 billion in revenue and $0.30 in adjusted EPS in the year-ago quarter, implying meaningful growth off a relatively soft base.
Beyond the headline figures, the market will watch aircraft deliveries across commercial and executive segments, ending order backlog, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins. Free cash flow generation is another key metric, given Embraer's heavy working-capital swings between quarters. The company's recent pattern has been uneven—a strong Q2 2026 beat followed a first-quarter EPS miss—so consistency in execution will matter as much as the raw numbers. From what I see, Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine offers useful context on how these metrics have trended historically.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the print is constructive but cautious. Embraer's American depositary shares (ADSs) have climbed roughly 17% over the past year and recently traded near $75, within reach of the 52-week high around $80.75. Analysts' average price target sits near $94.80, reflecting a broadly positive longer-term view.
Still, the stock has historically been volatile around earnings. Options-implied moves have averaged about 5.8%, and recent reactions have swung sharply—from a 1.1% gain after the August report to an 11.3% decline following the May release. Key risk factors include any delivery shortfalls, margin compression from supply-chain costs, or softer executive aviation orders, all of which could trigger outsized post-earnings moves in either direction.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking beyond the third-quarter report, investors should monitor several forward-looking signals. The first is guidance: Embraer issued fiscal-year 2026 targets in August, and any revision to revenue, margin, or free cash flow expectations will shape near-term sentiment. Analysts currently model full-year 2026 EPS near $3.06 and revenue around $8.6 billion.
Delivery execution is the second area to watch. Sustained increases in commercial jet deliveries and stable executive aviation volumes are essential to converting backlog into revenue and cash. Supply-chain bottlenecks and component availability remain potential headwinds across the aerospace sector.
Finally, watch the order pipeline. New commercial aircraft orders, defense and security contract wins, and services growth all influence the durability of the backlog. A planned forward split of the company's New York-listed ADSs, effective mid-November 2026, is also on the horizon and may affect trading dynamics. As always, these factors should be considered alongside broader aerospace demand trends rather than treated as standalone signals. I'm watching this closely as the split approaches.
Integrating Tickeron’s AI Screener Into My Workflow
In preparing for earnings like Embraer’s, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter aerospace names by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals. It helps surface comparable setups across the sector without manual effort, giving me a clearer view of relative strength and potential catalysts as results season unfolds. This approach keeps my research focused and efficient.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
EMBJ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
EMBJ moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 38 of 43 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EMBJ as a result. In 62 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EMBJ just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where EMBJ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +2.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EMBJ advanced for three days, in 237 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EMBJ moved out of overbought territory on September 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 29 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for EMBJ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EMBJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
EMBJ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EMBJ entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EMBJ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.875) is normal, around the industry mean (5.059). P/E Ratio (30.538) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.937). EMBJ's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (10.740) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.605) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of passenger aircrafts
Industry AerospaceDefense
Advertisement