GET DAILY SIGNALSExagen Inc. (XGN) Q3 Earnings Show Revenue Growth Amid Decelerating Test Volumes
Key Takeaways
- Exagen reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $18.4 million, up 7% year over year and slightly ahead of analyst consensus estimates.
- GAAP net loss per share was $0.25, a wider loss than the roughly $0.19 analysts had expected.
- AVISE® CTD test volume rose only 2% year over year, a sharp deceleration from double-digit growth earlier in 2026, while pricing continued to climb.
- Management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $72 million to $75 million, implying 8% to 13% annual growth.
- For more detail, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast.
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Why This Quarter Matters for Exagen
Exagen Inc. (XGN) is a precision medicine and diagnostics company whose flagship AVISE® CTD test helps physicians diagnose complex autoimmune conditions such as lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, and Sjögren's disease. This quarter matters because investors have been watching whether the company can sustain momentum after several years of double-digit revenue growth. Heading into the report, the focus was on test volume trends, average selling price (ASP) improvements, and progress toward the anticipated early-2027 launch of a new myositis test. With growth increasingly driven by pricing rather than volume, the results offered a critical read on the durability of Exagen's commercial strategy. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Exagen reported revenue of $18.4 million, a 7% increase from $17.2 million in the prior-year period and slightly above consensus estimates of roughly $18.3 million. GAAP net loss narrowed to $6.3 million, or $0.25 per share, compared with a loss of $7.1 million, or $0.31 per share, a year earlier. However, the per-share loss was wider than the approximately $0.19 consensus estimate.
Volume and pricing diverged notably. AVISE® CTD test volume grew just 2% year over year, down from roughly 10% in the first quarter of 2026, while trailing twelve-month ASP reached $451 per test, marking a 14th consecutive quarterly increase. Gross margin improved modestly to about 59%. Adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $1.9 million, roughly flat versus the prior year. The company ended the quarter with cash and equivalents of just over $28 million.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Exagen shares fell sharply following the report, as investors weighed the top-line beat against a wider-than-expected loss and, more importantly, the slowdown in test volume growth. The single-digit volume increase, coupled with slowing growth in ordering physicians, raised questions about whether the company's commercial expansion can return to double-digit rates. Sentiment was further tempered by the reliance on pricing and older-claim collections to drive ASP gains, alongside a modest gross margin improvement that delivered limited operating leverage for the quarter. The reiterated full-year revenue guidance provided some reassurance, but the decelerating volume trend dominated the immediate market interpretation.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will be watching several catalysts tied to Exagen's transition from a single-product focus toward a broader autoimmune testing platform. The most closely followed item is the myositis test, which completed analytical and clinical validation during the quarter, with a regulatory submission to the New York State Department of Health expected by the end of January 2027 and a launch targeted for early 2027.
Beyond myositis, the company's pipeline includes work on rheumatoid arthritis disease activity monitoring, lupus nephritis testing, and systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity assessment. Management has signaled a strategy of pairing these internal projects with an expanding Pharma Services business, whose year-to-date revenue grew roughly 85% to $2.2 million on a contract backlog of about $5.5 million.
Key factors to monitor include whether AVISE® CTD volume growth reaccelerates, whether ASP gains remain sustainable given potential regulatory changes to reimbursement, and how operating expenses trend as the company invests ahead of the myositis launch. Progress on gross margin toward management's mid-60% target and the company's ability to preserve its cash position will also be important signals for the quarters ahead. From what I see, the myositis launch could be an important catalyst if execution stays on track.
AI Tools in My Research Workflow
When analyzing earnings like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly scan for comparable names in the diagnostics space and spot any emerging technical or fundamental patterns. It helps me cross-check volume trends and peer performance without spending hours on manual filters, giving a clearer view of where XGN stands relative to the broader group.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
XGN sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
XGN saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 06, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 37 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XGN as a result. In 78 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
XGN moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XGN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XGN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XGN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 33 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +11.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XGN advanced for three days, in 190 of 230 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
XGN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 160 of 185 cases where XGN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 86%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 40 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.522) is normal, around the industry mean (67.298). P/E Ratio (-7.085) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.239). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.473). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.592) is also within normal values, averaging (9.775).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XGN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. XGN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a commercial-stage diagnostics company, which engages in transforming the care continuum for patients suffering from debilitating and chronic autoimmune diseases
Industry MedicalSpecialties
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