GET DAILY SIGNALSFarmer Mac (AGM) Posts Record $38.5 Billion Business Volume in Q3 2026
Key Takeaways
- Farmer Mac reported record outstanding business volume of $38.5 billion, up 24% from the prior-year period.
- Total revenue reached $122.7 million, up 29.2% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate of $121.3 million.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $5.03, while core EPS came in at $4.82, below consensus expectations of about $5.20.
- Net effective spread rose 16% year over year to $113.9 million, though the spread margin narrowed to 116 basis points from 120 a year ago.
- The provision for credit losses increased to $11.1 million, up from $7.4 million in the same quarter last year, partly tied to a single telecommunications credit.
- Capital remained strong, with a Tier 1 capital ratio of 12.9% and a core return on equity (ROE) of 16%.
- For more information on the company's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore the dedicated pages.
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Why This Quarter Matters
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, better known as Farmer Mac (AGM), functions as a government-sponsored enterprise that provides secondary-market liquidity to agricultural and rural infrastructure lenders. Its results offer a timely gauge of credit demand in areas such as farm lending, renewable energy, broadband, and utilities. The third quarter of 2026 unfolded against elevated interest-rate and policy uncertainty, underscoring the importance of the company’s funding access and spread management. With outstanding business volume rising 24% year over year and notable gains in renewable energy and broadband, the report helps assess whether strong loan demand can translate into sustainable earnings while containing credit costs.
Quarterly Results in Detail
For the period ended September 30, 2026, Farmer Mac (AGM) posted total revenue of $122.7 million, a 29.2% increase from the year-ago quarter and modestly ahead of the $121.3 million consensus estimate. Net interest income climbed 18% to $116 million, and net effective spread, a non-GAAP metric, advanced 16% to $113.9 million. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
GAAP diluted EPS reached $5.03, up 13% from $4.44 a year earlier. Core EPS, which strips out certain items, landed at $4.82, below the roughly $5.20 analysts anticipated. The gap stemmed mainly from a sequential narrowing of the net effective spread from an adjusted 118 basis points to 116 basis points, plus seasonally higher non-accruing loans in the Farm & Ranch segment and a shift toward higher AgVantage balances.
Credit provisions rose to $11.1 million from $7.4 million, reflecting new volume growth, updated loss estimates on a single telecommunications credit in the Broadband Infrastructure segment, and broader portfolio migration trends. Operating expenses fell 4.2% sequentially, supporting an efficiency ratio of 27.5%.
Market Reaction
Shares of Farmer Mac (AGM) stayed essentially flat right after the release, hovering near $197.82 in after-hours trading. The restrained response aligns with a mixed print: revenue edged past expectations and volume hit a record, yet core EPS missed as the spread margin tightened. Investors balanced the robust top-line and volume growth against higher credit provisions and a thinner net effective spread. The stock has still gained more than 20% over the past twelve months, indicating that longer-term views on rural infrastructure lending remain positive even as near-term spread trends invite closer examination.
Looking Ahead
Future performance will hinge on whether strong loan demand supports stable spreads. Management highlighted a renewable energy pipeline nearing $1 billion and increased Corporate AgFinance activity into the fourth quarter, pointing to ongoing volume momentum across segments. From what I see, monitoring the net effective spread remains essential, as further compression could weigh on earnings even with volume growth. Credit quality also deserves attention given the higher provision and the specific telecommunications exposure noted. Regulatory shifts, including the phaseout of renewable energy tax credits after 2027, interest-rate volatility, and policy changes, could affect both demand and funding conditions. Management reaffirmed expectations for a full-year efficiency ratio between 27% and 29% and compensation expense at the low end of its range.
AI Tools in My Research Process
When analyzing names like Farmer Mac (AGM), I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly surface comparable ideas across sectors using technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. This helps me cross-check volume trends and peer performance without manual effort. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AGM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGM moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 56 cases where AGM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AGM as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AGM just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where AGM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGM advanced for three days, in 209 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGM entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AGM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.785) is normal, around the industry mean (3.804). P/E Ratio (11.167) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.716) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.420) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
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General Information
a provider of a secondary market for agricultural real estate and rural housing mortgage loans
Industry SavingsBanks
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