GET DAILY SIGNALSFirefly Aerospace (FLY) Q3 Earnings Preview: Revenue Growth in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is set to release its third quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
- Analysts project revenue of about $103 million for the quarter, up sharply from $30.78 million in the year-ago period.
- The company is expected to report a net loss of roughly $0.49 per share, as it continues heavy spending on launch and spacecraft development.
- Investors will pay close attention to gross margin trends following the drop to 20.3% in the second quarter, driven by higher hardware costs on a U.S. government program.
- The earnings come shortly after a new rocket-engine agreement with AST SpaceMobile valued at more than $1.3 billion, announced on November 6, 2026.
- For more background, check the latest Major News and Today's Price Move, along with Price Targets and Forecast pages.
- Actionable trade ideas can also be found by reviewing Trending AI Robots.
Why This Report Matters
Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense technology firm offering launch services, spacecraft platforms, and mission solutions to government and commercial clients. Its quarterly update carries extra weight right now because the company is scaling rapidly, with second-quarter revenue hitting a record $117.7 million, up 659% year over year. The third-quarter numbers will help show whether that pace can be sustained and whether margins are starting to stabilize after the recent cost pressures. With a backlog near $1.5 billion and growing demand from national-security and commercial sources, this report serves as a useful checkpoint on execution ahead of the Alpha Block II rocket debut and the eventual Eclipse medium-lift vehicle.
Earnings Estimates and Margin Watch
Consensus estimates point to revenue of approximately $103 million for the third quarter of 2026, according to data from Benzinga Pro. That would mark growth of roughly 235% from the $30.78 million posted in the same quarter last year. On the bottom line, analysts look for a net loss of about $0.49 per share, an improvement from the $0.55 per share loss a year earlier, even as research, development, and production spending remain elevated. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Beyond the headline numbers, gross margin will be a key focus after it fell to 20.3% in the second quarter from 21.6% in the first, mainly due to urgent third-party hardware costs on a U.S. government program. Management has suggested margins should improve going forward, so the upcoming print will offer an early read on that view. The company has kept its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million, and the third-quarter results will help test that range.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Investor sentiment ahead of the report has been constructive. Shares of FLY jumped 36.8% in one session and rose another 17.1% on November 9, closing at $24.31, fueled by the more than $1.3 billion engine-supply deal with AST SpaceMobile. That agreement covers 36 rocket engines across the Miranda and Vira lines and brings a meaningful new revenue stream with better long-term visibility. Even so, the stock trades well below its 52-week high of $62.17, and some price targets have been adjusted lower in recent weeks even as Buy or Overweight ratings remain in place. The average analyst price target is near $35.73, suggesting room for upside, though short-term volatility around the release is expected given the company’s early-stage, capital-intensive profile.
Forward Outlook and Milestones Ahead
After the third-quarter results, several execution points will shape the narrative into 2027. The timing and outcome of the Alpha Block II Flight 8 launch rank high on the list, with analysts anticipating a debut window in the fourth quarter of 2026. That mission is viewed as an important check on production capacity and launch cadence, which matter more than demand at this stage since much of the 2027 manifest is already booked.
Another near-term catalyst is the NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) 2.0 award process, where Firefly appears well positioned thanks to its lunar delivery and in-space transport capabilities. The company has already secured six lunar missions worth more than $200 million.
Finally, the route to profitability stays central. Firefly finished the second quarter with a solid cash position, and the AST SpaceMobile agreement should add meaningful funding. As the planned 2027 debut of the Eclipse medium-lift rocket approaches, the focus will be on whether higher launch cadence, engine production, and license-based revenue drive margin expansion instead of additional cost growth.
AI-Powered Research Tools
I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings season. It lets me quickly filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals, helping surface relevant ideas in sectors like aerospace and defense without spending hours on manual work. The customizable filters make it straightforward to narrow watchlists around events like this one and compare opportunities across the broader market.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FLY sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On November 06, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for FLY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 15 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 14 of the 15 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FLY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 6 of 8 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FLY as a result. In 15 of 17 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FLY just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 6 of 8 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
FLY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +60.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FLY advanced for three days, in 53 of 58 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for FLY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 4 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
FLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FLY entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.842) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-4.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.070) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.751) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FLY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a holding company, which through its subsidiaries engages in the business of aircraft leasing
Industry AerospaceDefense
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