GET DAILY SIGNALSFirst Busey (BUSE) Q3 2026 Earnings: Deposit Strength Amid Credit Headwinds
Key Takeaways
- First Busey reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $55.8 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, down from $63.2 million, or $0.69 per share, in the prior quarter.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.63, below the consensus estimate of $0.67.
- Revenue of roughly $193.5 million also trailed the consensus forecast of about $195.8 million.
- A single commercial credit relationship in the Central region drove the provision for credit losses up to $9.6 million, compared with $2.2 million in the second quarter.
- Deposits climbed to $15.54 billion, growing at an 11% annualized rate for the second consecutive quarter, while net interest margin eased to 3.58% from 3.72%.
- The company repurchased 1.97 million shares for $59.6 million during the quarter, and its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio rose to 12.5%.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
First Busey Corporation (BUSE) is a regional bank holding company serving customers across multiple Midwestern markets. Its quarterly results offer investors a read on regional-bank fundamentals such as deposit flows, loan demand, net interest margin, and credit quality. Heading into this report, analysts had expected earnings of $0.67 per share on revenue of about $195.8 million, and the stock had gained roughly 24% year-to-date while trading near its 52-week high. With loan growth and the integration of the CrossFirst Bankshares combination under scrutiny, this report mattered because it tested whether the bank's profitability momentum and strong deposit franchise could offset softer loan balances and a renewed credit provision. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, First Busey posted net income of $55.8 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, down from $63.2 million, or $0.69 per share, in the second quarter of 2026. On an adjusted basis, net income was $57.2 million, or $0.63 per diluted share, missing the $0.67 consensus estimate. Revenue of approximately $193.5 million came in below the $195.8 million consensus.
Net interest income (NII) rose modestly to $153.1 million from $152.4 million in the prior quarter, while total noninterest income declined 8.8% to $40.4 million. The provision for credit losses increased to $9.6 million, primarily reflecting a single commercial relationship in the Central region that incurred a partial charge-off and moved to non-accrual status. Net interest margin (NIM) compressed to 3.58% from 3.72% sequentially.
On the balance sheet, total deposits grew to $15.54 billion from $15.13 billion, while the loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 82.5% from 87.2%. Wealth management revenue rose 15.5% year over year, and the company maintained an efficiency ratio of 54.4%.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
First Busey's results landed below consensus on both the top and bottom lines, largely because of the elevated credit provision tied to a single commercial relationship. Management emphasized that, excluding that credit, underlying trends for the quarter remained solid, with stable operating revenue, strong expense discipline, and continued deposit growth. The headline miss may weigh on near-term sentiment, but investors are likely to focus on whether the credit event is isolated or signals broader credit deterioration. The bank's decision to reposition roughly $65 million of lender finance loans to held for sale also reflected ongoing portfolio management rather than a fundamental shift in strategy. From what I see, the share repurchase activity and rising CET1 ratio underscore a commitment to capital returns even in a softer quarter.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the key question is whether First Busey can translate its strong deposit franchise into consistent loan growth. Deposits grew at an 11% annualized rate for the second straight quarter, but loan balances declined during the period, and management has acknowledged that organic loan production remains a work in progress following the CrossFirst combination. Investors will watch whether newly added commercial talent begins to drive loan expansion in coming quarters.
Credit quality will also remain in focus. The single relationship that triggered the larger provision moved to non-accrual, and non-performing assets stood at $83.6 million, or 0.45% of total assets, at quarter-end. If charge-offs remain contained, the elevated provision may prove to be a one-time event rather than a trend.
Finally, net interest margin pressure deserves continued attention. With NIM easing to 3.58%, the bank's asset-sensitive balance sheet and its ability to deploy excess liquidity into higher-yielding loans will influence future revenue. Capital remains a bright spot, with the CET1 ratio rising to 12.5% even after meaningful share repurchases, giving management flexibility to support growth or return capital to shareholders. I’m watching this closely for signs of stabilization in the coming quarters.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
In my view, tools like Tickeron’s AI Screener help streamline the process of comparing regional banks on metrics such as deposit trends and credit metrics. I find it useful for quickly filtering peers and spotting patterns that might otherwise require hours of manual work, which keeps my analysis focused on the numbers that matter most for names like First Busey.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BUSE's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for BUSE moved out of oversold territory on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BUSE as a result. In 47 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BUSE just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BUSE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
BUSE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BUSE advanced for three days, in 158 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BUSE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
BUSE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BUSE entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.053) is normal, around the industry mean (1.269). P/E Ratio (12.250) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.240). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.310) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.382) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BUSE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a regional bank
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