GET DAILY SIGNALSFirst Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Q3 2026 Earnings: +17.5% Growth Expected
Key Takeaways
- First Mid Bancshares (NASDAQ: FMBH) is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results around October 29, 2026, before the market opens.
- Consensus estimates call for earnings of approximately $1.14 per share on revenue near $108.5 million, reflecting roughly 17.5% year-over-year earnings growth.
- The bank has built a track record of outperformance, most recently beating second-quarter 2026 estimates with adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share.
- Investors will focus on net interest margin, integration costs from the Two Rivers Bank acquisition, and momentum in fee-based income.
- Seven analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy, with a consensus price target of about $56.36.
Why the Upcoming Report Matters
First Mid Bancshares is a Mattoon, Illinois-based regional bank that has been expanding its Midwest footprint through acquisitions, including its February 2026 purchase of Two Rivers Bank. That deal meaningfully grew the company's loan portfolio and deposits, but it also introduced one-time merger costs that are still working through the income statement. For investors, the third-quarter report serves as a check on whether the bank can sustain its recent momentum while absorbing those integration expenses. The results will also offer a read on regional-bank profitability, where disciplined net interest margins and diversified fee income have become key differentiators across the sector.
What the Street Is Expecting
Wall Street expects First Mid Bancshares to report earnings of about $1.14 per share for the third quarter of 2026, with revenue projected near $108.5 million. That earnings figure would represent a healthy year-over-year increase but a sequential step down from the second quarter, when the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share and revenue of roughly $108.5 million.
The expected quarter-over-quarter decline in earnings is largely tied to the Two Rivers integration, which added merger-related expenses to the expense base. Analysts have modestly raised earnings-per-share estimates over the past 60 days, though the revisions stalled in the most recent week, suggesting expectations have stabilized heading into the release. On the revenue side, forecasts have edged slightly lower over the last two months.
Key metrics to watch include the tax-equivalent net interest margin (NIM), which measures the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. First Mid's NIM reached 3.79% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.66% in 2025. Investors will also track non-interest income, which rose 14.1% year over year to $55.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, helped by the wealth management and insurance businesses. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the report remains broadly constructive. Shares traded near $49.88 in mid-October, and analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $56.36, implying roughly 13% upside. The stock carries a forward price-to-earnings multiple of about 10.68, below its trailing multiple of 13.24, reflecting some discount for near-term integration uncertainty.
The primary risks heading into earnings are tied to the Two Rivers acquisition. If merger-related expenses prove larger or more persistent than expected, they could pressure the bottom line and dampen the enthusiasm built during the second quarter, when the company comfortably exceeded estimates. Any sign that the net interest margin is softening, or that agricultural credit downgrades are worsening, could also weigh on sentiment.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Beyond the headline figures, investors should focus on a handful of forward-looking signals that management will address on the earnings call.
First, the sustainability of the net interest margin is the central question. First Mid expanded its margin through the first half of 2026, but sustaining that trajectory while integrating the Two Rivers balance sheet will depend on deposit pricing discipline and loan yield trends. Regional competitors have reported solid margin gains in recent quarters, setting a benchmark for First Mid to match.
Second, integration costs from the Two Rivers acquisition are expected to drive the anticipated sequential earnings dip. The key distinction for investors is whether these expenses are genuinely one-time in nature or signal broader operating pressure.
Third, fee income is emerging as an important offset. Non-interest income grew double digits in the first half of 2026, supported by the December 2025 integration of RFMS and strength in wealth management and insurance commissions. Whether that momentum continues could determine whether the bank beats, meets, or misses expectations.
Finally, credit quality bears watching. The company has noted credit risk rating normalization in its agricultural portfolio, and while management has said it does not anticipate significant losses, any deterioration in non-performing loans would draw investor attention.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools in My Research
When preparing for earnings like this one, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter comparable regional banks and spot sector patterns. The platform lets me apply technical and fundamental criteria in one place, which helps me form a clearer view of where FMBH stands relative to peers before the numbers drop. It has become a regular part of my workflow for staying organized ahead of releases.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FMBH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FMBH turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FMBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FMBH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FMBH as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
FMBH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FMBH advanced for three days, in 161 of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for FMBH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FMBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
FMBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FMBH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FMBH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.222) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (12.530) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). FMBH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (43.000) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.330) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
HELOC vs. Home Equity Loan: Which Option Suits You Better?
Search Optimization Top 10 Day Trading and Swing Trading Bots
S&P 500, Meet Your Match: Tickeron's Robot Leads the Way to Market Success!
Principal Financial Group (PFG) Stock Surges 5.18% in July 2025: What Drove the Rally and What’s Next?
Active Trading in a Roth IRA: Any Gains Are Tax-Free, But You Can’t Use Margin
General Information
a regional bank
Industry RegionalBanks
Advertisement