GET DAILY SIGNALSFox Factory Holding (FOXF) Delivers Mixed Q3 Results With -10.1% Sales Decline
Key Takeaways
- Fox Factory Holding reported third quarter fiscal 2026 net sales of $338.4 million, down 10.1% from the prior-year period.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.54, well above the prior-year quarter's $0.23 and ahead of the roughly $0.32 consensus estimate.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was $50.4 million, including about $12 million of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariff refunds; excluding those refunds, the figure was roughly $38 million.
- The company's Marucci Sports divestiture closed on September 25, 2026, contributing about $33 million to quarterly sales and funding a significant debt reduction.
- Full-year fiscal 2026 net sales guidance was lowered to a range of $1.35 billion to $1.38 billion, reflecting persistent cost and demand pressures.
- Chief Executive Officer Michael Dennison stepped down in October, with Douglas Grimm named interim CEO.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Fox Factory Holding Corp. (FOXF) designs and manufactures premium performance-defining products across powered vehicles, aftermarket applications, and specialty sports. This third quarter fiscal 2026 report, for the period ended October 2, 2026, arrived during a difficult stretch for the company. Management had already pre-announced disappointing preliminary results on October 16, cutting guidance and disclosing the CEO transition. I’m watching this closely to see whether profit-optimization efforts, the Marucci divestiture, and an improving powersports demand backdrop can offset elevated input costs and macroeconomic pressure on dealers and consumers. The report serves as a key checkpoint on the company's deleveraging progress and margin-recovery strategy. From what I see, a quick scan with Tickeron’s AI Screener helped put these results in broader industry context.
Reported Results
Total consolidated net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 were $338.4 million, a decrease of 10.1% year over year. The figure landed near the top of the company's October 16 preliminary range of $336 million to $340 million and modestly above the consensus estimate of roughly $337 million. Gross margin improved to 31.5% from 30.4% a year earlier, helped by IEEPA tariff refunds but partially offset by unfavorable mix and higher input costs.
Adjusted net income was $22.7 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, compared with $9.9 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $50.4 million, including about $12 million of IEEPA tariff refunds. Excluding those refunds, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $38 million, near the low end of the preliminary range and reflecting later-than-expected timing of cost savings.
By segment, Powered Vehicles Group net sales rose 4.1% to $131 million, supported by a 28.8% increase in powersports, while Aftermarket Applications Group net sales fell 20.4% to $93.8 million amid limited chassis availability and softer dealer demand. On the balance sheet, total debt fell to $397.4 million from $673.5 million at the start of the year, driven by roughly $200 million in Marucci divestiture proceeds, reducing net leverage to approximately 2.4x.
For the fourth quarter, management guided net sales of $287 million to $313 million and adjusted EBITDA of $25 million to $30 million. Full-year guidance was narrowed to net sales of $1.35 billion to $1.38 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $143 million to $148 million, excluding about $14 million of IEEPA tariff refunds.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment around FOXF has been decidedly cautious. Shares fell sharply on October 16, 2026, after the company pre-announced preliminary results that missed guidance, cut its full-year outlook, and disclosed the departure of CEO Michael Dennison. The preliminary sales range of $336 million to $340 million fell well short of the prior $355 million to $380 million guidance, and adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced by roughly $41 million at the midpoint. The November 5 earnings call confirmed these pressures, with management citing a supplier disruption in Powered Vehicles, upfit business challenges, and softer bike sales, even as powersports demand improved. Investors remain focused on whether margin recovery and deleveraging can offset ongoing cost inflation.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
FOXF enters its fourth quarter with a tempered outlook. Management guided fourth-quarter net sales of $287 million to $313 million, reflecting the absence of Marucci, constrained chassis availability, and elevated input costs including aluminum, steel, and freight. The company expects the supplier disruption in its Powered Vehicles Group to continue through the fourth quarter, though it views the associated higher costs as temporary.
Investors should monitor several signals in the quarters ahead. First, the pace of the profit-optimization program matters: the company captured about $41 million of gross savings against its $50 million fiscal 2026 target, but those savings were largely offset by external cost increases. Second, the search for a permanent CEO, led by Heidrick & Struggles, could shape the 2027 strategic plan, with more detail expected on the fourth-quarter call in February. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine to gauge longer-term momentum.
Finally, watch the demand trajectory in powersports, which has now grown for three consecutive quarters as original equipment manufacturers work through channel inventory. Continued improvement there, combined with disciplined cost management and the benefits of reduced leverage, will be central to whether the company can stabilize margins into fiscal 2027.
Using AI Tools for Deeper Analysis
In my view, tools like Tickeron’s AI-powered platforms add real value when reviewing earnings like these. I often turn to the AI Screener to quickly compare FOXF against peers on fundamentals and technical signals, helping surface setups that might otherwise take hours to identify manually. It’s become a regular part of how I cross-check momentum and valuation context after reports like this one.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
FOXF's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for FOXF moved out of oversold territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 31 of the 41 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FOXF as a result. In 58 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FOXF just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where FOXF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +5.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FOXF advanced for three days, in 202 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FOXF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
FOXF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FOXF entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.066) is normal, around the industry mean (0.768). P/E Ratio (-2.370) is within average values for comparable stocks, (40.498). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.470) is also within normal values, averaging (1.494). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.553) is also within normal values, averaging (49.456).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. FOXF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FOXF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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a manufacturer of high-performance suspension products
Industry AutoPartsOEM
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