GET DAILY SIGNALSGroupon (GRPN) Q3 2026 Earnings: Watching for Local Billings Stabilization
Key Takeaways
- Groupon is scheduled to report its third quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Monday, November 9, 2026, with a conference call on November 10.
- Analysts expect roughly break-even earnings per share (EPS), near $0.00, compared with a loss of $2.92 per share in the year-ago quarter.
- Consensus revenue stands at about $129.39 million, implying year-over-year growth of roughly 5.3% from $122.83 million.
- Management guided third quarter revenue to a range of $128 million to $130 million, with consensus sitting near the bottom of that band.
- Investors will focus on whether North America local billings stabilize and whether second-half revenue reacceleration remains on track.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed last quarter: revenue of $513 million to $523 million and adjusted EBITDA of $70 million to $75 million.
- For more context on the ticker, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast pages.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Groupon's third quarter 2026 report arrives at a pivotal moment for the company's multi-year turnaround. After years of revenue declines, the marketplace for local experiences, goods, and travel has shifted toward stabilizing its top line while pursuing an "AI-native" operating model through its Project Foundry initiative. The company's second quarter disappointed, with revenue slipping slightly year over year and North America local billings decelerating. Management asked investors to look past that softness, arguing that July had already reaccelerated and that the second half would deliver improvement. This report will test whether that rebound is real and whether the company's full-year targets remain achievable. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's consensus for the third quarter of 2026 calls for essentially break-even EPS, near $0.00, a dramatic improvement from the $2.92 per share loss reported in the same period a year earlier. Revenue is expected to reach approximately $129.39 million, up about 5.3% from $122.83 million a year ago.
Management's own guidance for the quarter is a revenue range of $128 million to $130 million, meaning consensus sits just below the midpoint. For the second half of 2026, the company has pointed to revenue growth of roughly 6% to 10%. Full-year guidance, reaffirmed during the second quarter report, calls for billings growth of 3% to 5%, revenue of $513 million to $523 million, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $70 million to $75 million, and free cash flow of at least $60 million.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will scrutinize North America local billings, the merchant-supply engine that drove the second quarter shortfall, as well as any evidence that the MobileNext platform migration and the Project Foundry AI efforts are translating into durable demand.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into this report is cautious. GRPN shares have fallen sharply since the company's August report, with the stock trading well below its 200-day moving average and near its post-earnings lows. The market's skepticism stems from a credibility challenge: management asked investors to trust that July's reacceleration would carry through the rest of the quarter, but the prior quarter's miss left little room for error.
Analysts appear to be leaving margin for disappointment, with consensus revenue sitting just under the bottom of management's second-half growth band. The key risk is that revenue growth lands below expectations, that North America local remains soft, or that the full-year outlook is trimmed. Conversely, a revenue beat combined with signs of local stabilization and reaffirmed guidance could cast the recent selloff as overdone.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following the release, investors should track several signals that will shape the stock's path beyond a single quarter. The most important is North America local billings. Management has cited new leadership and a sharper focus on local supply, but one quarter is unlikely to deliver a full fix. Evidence that billings have stabilized, rather than simply decelerating more slowly, will matter most.
The completion of the MobileNext platform migration is another catalyst to watch. Management indicated the rollout was slated to finish by the end of this quarter. Confirmation that it is done would remove a multi-year distraction and support claims that the Project Foundry AI initiative is boosting engineering output.
Finally, keep an eye on cash flow and cost discipline. Adjusted EBITDA finished at the high end of guidance last quarter, and free cash flow was positive. Management's own outlook implied negative free cash flow for this quarter, so modest cash burn would not itself be a surprise, but a larger-than-expected drawdown could renew concerns about liquidity and the company's path to sustained profitability. All of these factors, taken together, will determine whether the second-half acceleration remains credible. From what I see, this is important because it ties directly into longer-term credibility on the turnaround.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings like this one. It lets me quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry trends, helping me compare GRPN against peers without spending hours on manual work. This kind of tool has become a regular part of how I build context around upcoming reports and identify where the real risks or opportunities might lie.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
GRPN's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for GRPN entered a downward trend on November 05, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 218 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 194 of the 218 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GRPN as a result. In 73 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRPN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRPN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 32 of 37 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 63 cases where GRPN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRPN just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRPN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
GRPN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GRPN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GRPN's P/B Ratio (-8.777) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.054). P/E Ratio (-4.962) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-35.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (14.657) is also within normal values, averaging (17.274). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (1.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.563) is also within normal values, averaging (71.888).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GRPN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of a shopping website that offers a daily deal on local goods, services and cultural events
Industry InternetSoftwareServices
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