GET DAILY SIGNALSHillman Solutions (HLMN) Shares Rise +19.6% in 30 Days Following Q3 Beat
Key Takeaways
- HLMN shares rebounded roughly 19.6% over the trailing 30 days, climbing from about $7.04 to near $8.42.
- The recovery followed a third-quarter 2026 report in which adjusted EPS of $0.22 beat consensus estimates by 6.1% and adjusted EBITDA of $90.2 million exceeded expectations.
- Net sales reached a record $457.5 million, up 7.7% year over year, led by 19.2% growth in the high-margin Robotics and Digital Solutions segment.
- The completed Kanebridge acquisition expanded Hillman's presence in industrial fastener master distribution and the Pro channel.
- Management narrowed full-year net sales guidance to $1.66–$1.68 billion while reaffirming adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow targets.
- Despite the recent bounce, the stock remains below its early-August level near $9.20, reflecting a volatile quarter-over-quarter trend.
- For additional detail on valuation, upcoming results, and analyst expectations, explore Hillman's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading strategies are approaching the market.
A Closer Look at Hillman Solutions
HLMN is a leading North American provider of hardware and related products, founded in 1964 and headquartered in Cincinnati. The company serves retail, professional distribution, and industrial MRO customers with a portfolio of more than 150,000 SKUs across fasteners, builder's hardware, project gear and supplies, and key and engraving services. Its segments include Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The direct-to-store distribution model, supported by a field sales team of more than 1,200 associates, and long-standing retailer relationships set HLMN apart. Investors track the name for its ties to resilient repair, maintenance, and remodeling demand, plus growth in the Pro channel and the high-margin robotic key-duplication business.
Recent Stock Price Moves: 30 Days and the Broader Quarter
Over the past 30 days, HLMN advanced about 19.6%, rising from a close near $7.04 to roughly $8.42. That rebound came after the shares approached the $6.94 area in early October, close to the 52-week low. From what I see, the move reversed a short-term downtrend but has not yet returned the stock to earlier highs.
Looking back three months, the picture is more mixed. From an early-August level near $9.22, HLMN is still down roughly 9% even after the recent gain. The path included a steady decline through September and early October before the recovery took hold.
Factors Behind the 30-Day Advance
The recent lift was driven by third-quarter 2026 results. Record net sales of $457.5 million rose 7.7% year over year, adjusted EPS of $0.22 beat estimates by about 6%, and adjusted EBITDA of $90.2 million topped expectations at a 19.7% margin. The Robotics and Digital Solutions segment grew 19.2% and stood out. I’m watching this closely because the segment’s momentum supports the higher-margin profile.
The $315 million Kanebridge acquisition added scale in industrial fasteners and the Pro channel. Share repurchases of roughly 0.6 million at an average price near $7.75 also helped. These positives were tempered by a modest revenue miss versus consensus and a narrowed full-year net sales range of $1.66–$1.68 billion.
Drivers of Performance Over the Past Quarter
The three-month trend shows a company operating in a soft housing and remodeling environment while shifting its portfolio mix. Earlier softness in the first quarter and weather-related issues weighed on sentiment, along with broader macro concerns. This is important because those headwinds set a challenging backdrop.
The second half of the period brought a more constructive tone after a stronger second-quarter report, raised guidance, credit refinancing, and acquisitions including Campbell Chain and Fittings and Delaney Hardware. The March 2026 Investor Day outlined a path to $2.5 billion in net sales by 2030, which has helped anchor longer-term interest in the name.
What to Watch Going Forward
Investors will likely focus on fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results plus any 2027 updates. Integration of Kanebridge and prior deals, along with the MinuteKey 3.5 rollout, will test execution. Macro items such as housing turnover, existing-home sales, interest rates, and potential tariff or steel-cost pressures remain relevant. Net leverage at 3.4x after the Kanebridge deal makes deleveraging a point to monitor.
Using AI Tools to Track Market Positioning
In my research process I regularly review Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page. It surfaces a selection of top-performing automated strategies across various timeframes and approaches, giving a data-driven view of how systematic models are positioned in names like this one. The page offers a practical way to complement fundamental analysis with signals from hundreds of bots trading thousands of tickers.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HLMN's RSI Indicator is staying in overbought zone for 1 day
Watch for a price pull-back in the near future.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HLMN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
HLMN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HLMN as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
HLMN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HLMN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HLMN advanced for three days, in 187 of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 114 of 175 cases where HLMN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HLMN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 51 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.239) is normal, around the industry mean (3.189). HLMN has a moderately high P/E Ratio (39.000) as compared to the industry average of (22.389). HLMN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). HLMN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.017). P/S Ratio (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HLMN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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