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published in Blogs
Nov 03, 2020

Honda and Toyota Heading in Different Directions Ahead of Earnings

Honda Motor Company (HMC) and Toyota Motor Company (TM) are both scheduled to report earnings on November 6. The two automotive giants have seen their stocks move in opposite directions over the last three months. Toyota has rallied and gained just over 9% in the last three months while Honda has fallen 4% over that same time period.

Toyota has moved back above its 52-week moving average and its 13-week moving average just crossed bullishly back above the 52-week. Honda is trading below its 13-week and 52-week moving averages.

I was a little surprised when I looked at the fundamental analysis screener for the two stocks. Honda gets positive readings in four different categories and only one negative reading. The positive readings were in the Outlook Rating, the Valuation Rating, the P/E Growth Rating, and the Seasonality Score. The negative reading was in the Profit vs. Risk rating.

While Toyota has outperformed on a price basis, it scores considerably worse in the fundamental ratings. The only positive for the stock is in the Valuation Rating. It gets two negative readings from the Profit vs. Risk Rating and the SMR rating.

The technical screener doesn’t look as good for Honda. It gets three bearish signals and only one bullish signal. Toyota shows one bullish signal and the rest are neutral.

The sentiment toward Honda is considerably more bullish than it is toward Toyota. There are 16 analysts covering Honda with 15 “buy” ratings and one “hold” rating. The overall buy percentage is much higher than the average stock. The short interest ratio for Honda is average at 2.8. Overall the sentiment toward Honda is skewed to the bullish side and that could be a problem if earnings disappoint.

For Toyota there are 18 analysts covering the stock with 11 “buy” ratings, five “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. This gives us a buy percentage of 61.1% and that is below average. The short interest ratio is 5.0 and that is above average. The sentiment is skewed to the bearish side for Toyota and from a contrarian viewpoint, that’s a good thing.

Analysts expect Honda to report earnings of $0.60 for the quarter and that’s a drop of 41.2% compared the Q2 2019. Toyota is expected to report earnings of $2.13 and that’s down 44.5% from the $3.84 the company reported last year.

If we look at the two companies side by side, we see where each company scores well and where they score poorly.

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