GET DAILY SIGNALSHubSpot (HUBS) Delivers Q3 Beat with +17% Revenue Growth but Q4 Guidance Disappoints
Key Takeaways
- HubSpot reported third quarter 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $3.81, beating the consensus estimate of $3.27.
- Revenue rose 17% year over year to $947.6 million, topping the $925.31 million analysts expected.
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance disappointed, with revenue of $945 million to $947 million and EPS of $3.85 to $3.87 both landing below Street estimates.
- Full-year 2026 EPS guidance was raised to $13.59–$13.61, above the $13.30 consensus, even as revenue growth shows signs of decelerating.
- Total customers reached 311,704, up 12% year over year, while non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 22.6% from 19.9% a year ago.
- HubSpot disclosed a restructuring plan with expected charges of $65 million to $75 million, mostly in the fourth quarter.
Putting the Quarter in Perspective
HubSpot, the agentic customer platform for scaling businesses, is navigating a pivotal transition as artificial intelligence reshapes how software is bought and used. The company is repositioning around its Breeze AI agents, a simplified seat-and-credit pricing model, and headless CRM connectors, all while managing softer demand and longer sales cycles. After second-quarter results triggered a sharp post-earnings selloff, investors entered this report focused on whether revenue growth and customer momentum could stabilize. From what I see, the results matter because they test whether HubSpot's deliberate strategic trade-offs—accepting lower near-term pricing and growth to capture the AI opportunity—are beginning to translate into durable customer engagement and profitability.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
HubSpot delivered third quarter 2026 revenue of $947.6 million, a 17% year-over-year increase that exceeded the consensus estimate of $925.31 million. Subscription revenue climbed 18% to $930.2 million, while services and other revenue declined 3%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $3.81, comfortably above the $3.27 analysts expected, and non-GAAP operating income reached $214.2 million, up 33% from the prior year. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 22.6% from 19.9%, and GAAP operating margin improved to 7.6% from 1.4%.
Customer growth remained steady but measured. Total customers reached 311,704, up 12% year over year, with 5,258 net new additions during the quarter. Average subscription revenue per customer rose 4% to $12,038, while calculated billings grew 15% to $924.9 million. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Guidance proved the focal point of the report. For the fourth quarter, HubSpot guided revenue of $945 million to $947 million—below the $964.9 million consensus—and adjusted EPS of $3.85 to $3.87, under the $4.09 estimate. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.685 billion to $3.687 billion was roughly in line with expectations, while the raised full-year EPS range of $13.59 to $13.61 surpassed the $13.30 consensus.
Market Reaction and What It Signals
Despite beating on both revenue and EPS, HubSpot shares fell in after-hours trading following the report, as investors focused on the weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter outlook. The guided revenue midpoint of $946 million implies roughly 12% year-over-year growth, a notable deceleration from the 17% posted in the third quarter, and the EPS guide also trailed consensus. The company's newly disclosed restructuring plan, carrying expected charges of $65 million to $75 million, added a layer of near-term execution uncertainty. The reaction underscores how heavily the market continues to weight HubSpot's growth trajectory—and how margin gains and earnings beats were not enough to offset concerns about slowing top-line momentum and a transition to a new pricing model.
Forward Outlook and Factors Worth Watching
Looking ahead, investors will be watching whether HubSpot's product and pricing transformation can reaccelerate growth without sacrificing the profitability gains achieved in recent quarters. The expansion of its simplified pricing pilot across the EMEA region for new customers is a key experiment, with management signaling early evidence of stronger credit usage and customer volume.
AI adoption metrics will remain central. Rapid growth in Breeze Assistant usage and a 157% quarter-over-quarter increase in CRM objects created through connectors suggest deeper engagement, but the company must demonstrate these signals convert into sustained seat expansion and revenue. One thing that stands out is the need for clearer proof that these metrics drive lasting results.
Finally, monitor the restructuring plan's execution, its impact on operating expenses, and whether it delivers the intended efficiency benefits. Demand conditions, customer buying behavior around AI solutions, and billings growth relative to revenue will offer the clearest read on the durability of HubSpot's transition.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in Practice
In my own analysis, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by fundamentals, technical patterns, and AI signals. It helps surface relevant ideas without hours of manual work and supports a more disciplined approach to comparing names like HubSpot (HUBS) against peers. The tool has become a regular part of how I review quarterly results and spot potential opportunities.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
HUBS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
HUBS moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HUBS moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HUBS as a result. In 68 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HUBS turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUBS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
HUBS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for HUBS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The 50-day moving average for HUBS moved above the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +8.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HUBS advanced for three days, in 230 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 153 of 218 cases where HUBS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HUBS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.808) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.902). P/E Ratio (79.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.583). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.247) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.618) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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a developer of Internet marketing software solutions
Industry PackagedSoftware
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