GET DAILY SIGNALSKaspi.kz (KSPI) Delivers +18% Revenue Growth in Q3 Despite Currency Pressures
Key Takeaways
- Kaspi.kz reported consolidated 3Q 2026 revenue up 18% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis to KZT1.1 trillion (about $2.5 billion), with adjusted EBITDA up 1% to KZT408 billion.
- Net income reached KZT281 billion ($637 million), while the board proposed a higher quarterly dividend of KZT1,000 per ADS, up from KZT850 previously.
- e-Commerce engagement strengthened, with annualized purchases per consumer rising 27% and the take rate expanding 210 basis points to 16.3%.
- Core engines held firm: Payments TPV grew 14% and Fintech revenue rose 19%, though sharp appreciation of the Kazakh tenge weighed on reported GMV.
- Management reiterated guidance for around 5% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026 but trimmed its Marketplace GMV outlook to roughly 12% amid currency effects.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
KSPI, the Kazakhstan-based fintech and e-commerce “Super App” operator, reported third-quarter and nine-month results on November 9, 2026, covering the period ending September 30, 2026. This update is particularly relevant as it shows whether the company can maintain double-digit top-line growth amid a strong tenge and elevated interest rates. Investors are also monitoring how KSPI balances shareholder returns with its ongoing investment in Türkiye via the Hepsiburada platform. The board’s decision to raise the proposed dividend provides a clear signal of confidence in cash generation and longer-term expansion plans.
Reported Results
KSPI delivered consolidated constant-currency revenue growth of 18% year-over-year to KZT1.1 trillion ($2.5 billion). Adjusted EBITDA increased 1% to KZT408 billion ($925 million), and net income came in at KZT281 billion ($637 million). The divergence between revenue and profit growth stems from currency translation effects and continued spending on newer initiatives.
Marketplace revenue rose 20% on a constant-currency basis to KZT466 billion ($1.1 billion), exceeding GMV growth of 8% as monetization improved. e-Commerce revenue advanced 23% to KZT343 billion ($779 million), with the take rate widening 210 basis points to 16.3%. Payments TPV climbed 14% to KZT13.6 trillion ($30.8 billion), and Fintech revenue grew 19% to KZT489 billion ($1.1 billion), aided by 14% expansion in the average net loan portfolio.
A notable development was the proposed quarterly dividend of KZT1,000 per ADS, up from KZT850, pending shareholder approval. Management kept its 2026 guidance for roughly 5% year-over-year consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth but lowered constant-currency Marketplace GMV growth expectations to approximately 12%.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into the report, sentiment around KSPI remained constructive yet measured, reflecting a solid underlying business alongside currency and regulatory considerations. Analysts have generally held a favorable stance, with a recent Buy rating and a $135 price target noted by third-party services. The dividend increase and steady payments and fintech performance bolster the investment thesis, while the trimmed GMV guidance and modest EBITDA rise underscore near-term pressure from tenge appreciation. Post-earnings, investors appear focused on the sustainability of engagement gains versus the slower profit path implied by 2026 guidance.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Management highlighted stronger earnings growth potential in 2027, pointing to two 100-basis-point interest-rate cuts in August and October that should ease funding costs. Those benefits are expected to become more apparent next year, with investments in Türkiye projected to moderate significantly.
Key areas to watch include whether e-Commerce engagement keeps rising and whether the higher take rate persists. The company’s expansion into neighborhood grocery via Magnum Daily represents another potential catalyst, following a 42-store pilot that delivered roughly 15% EBITDA margin, with plans to reach about 300 stores by the end of 2027.
Currency movements remain a critical variable. The tenge strengthened about 20% against the U.S. dollar and 32% against the Turkish lira year-over-year, compressing reported GMV even as item volumes increased. Any reversal in that trend, combined with the path of interest rates in Kazakhstan, could meaningfully affect the pace of profit recovery. For now, the combination of engagement growth, higher-margin monetization, and disciplined capital returns keeps the outlook balanced.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When evaluating results like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare KSPI against peers on metrics such as growth rates, margins, and technical signals. It helps surface relevant context without spending hours on manual screens. In my view, tools like this add efficiency when earnings season brings a flood of new data.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
KSPI in +4.26% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 29, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where KSPI advanced for three days, in 109 of 158 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KSPI as a result. In 47 of 66 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KSPI turned negative on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 37 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KSPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
KSPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KSPI entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.007) is normal, around the industry mean (16.360). P/E Ratio (0.016) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.696). Dividend Yield (0.094) settles around the average of (0.434) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.967) is also within normal values, averaging (104.492).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KSPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KSPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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