GET DAILY SIGNALSKeel Infrastructure (KEEL) Q3 Earnings: Revenue Decline and the AI Data Center Transition
Key Takeaways
- Third-quarter revenue fell 59% year over year to $27.6 million, driven by the deliberate shutdown of U.S. Bitcoin mining and lower average Bitcoin prices.
- The company posted a loss of $0.10 per share from continuing operations, wider than the roughly $0.07-per-share loss analysts had expected.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) swung to a loss of about $27 million from a profit of $19 million a year earlier.
- Management withdrew its target of signing three data-center leases in 2026, citing Pennsylvania's new regulatory framework as the main delay.
- Keel sold its entire Bitcoin treasury of 2,520 coins for $192 million and ended the quarter with roughly $780 million in unrestricted cash.
Earnings Context and the Pivot to HPC
Keel Infrastructure (formerly Bitfarms), now KEEL, is navigating a significant shift from Bitcoin mining toward high-performance computing and AI data centers. With most mining revenue wound down ahead of its first data-center leases, these quarterly results matter less than progress on permitting, construction, and actual lease signings. I have been watching whether the company can turn its roughly 2.2-gigawatt pipeline into steady HPC revenue. The absence of any signed lease so far, combined with the retracted 2026 target, puts the market's patience to the test.
Third-Quarter Results in Detail
Revenue came in at $27.6 million, down 59% from $68 million a year earlier, reflecting the U.S. mining shutdown and softer Bitcoin prices. That figure still topped the consensus estimate of about $21.4 million. The loss from continuing operations widened to $62 million, or $0.10 per share, versus $11 million or $0.02 per share last year, missing the expected $0.07-per-share loss. A large part of the gap was a $55 million non-cash unrealized loss on capped calls linked to the convertible notes.
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations flipped to a $27 million loss from a $19 million profit. G&A expenses rose to about $34 million, driven by new hires, professional fees, and stock-based compensation. Keel sold its full 2,520 Bitcoin holdings for $192 million, removing treasury exposure to crypto volatility, and closed the quarter with approximately $780 million in unrestricted cash. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare the stock’s metrics against other infrastructure names in the sector.
Market Reaction and Analyst Views
Shares of KEEL dropped about 11% in early trading after the report, with the withdrawn lease target drawing the most attention. The revenue beat and cash balance offered some cushion, yet investors focused on the timing of commercial execution. Analysts trimmed price targets while keeping an overall positive rating. From what I see, the reaction underscores that the investment story now hinges on converting powered sites into contracted HPC revenue rather than near-term mining numbers.
Looking Ahead: Leases, Permits, and Financing
The next key milestone remains a signed data-center lease. Management offered no updated timeline but noted advanced talks on three sites: Moses Lake in Washington, plus Sharon and Panther Creek in Pennsylvania. Construction at Moses Lake started in September, with first HPC revenue still targeted for 2027. Four environmental permits remain outstanding for the Pennsylvania sites, two at the draft stage, after an executive order removed data centers from fast-track review. Load studies at Panther Creek and Scrubgrass are now slated for the first quarter of 2027 and could expand secured capacity from 478 MW to as much as 1,928 MW if approved. With roughly $780 million in cash, near-term funding pressure looks manageable, though lease economics will ultimately shape returns.
Tracking the Sector with AI Tools
One thing that stands out when following names like KEEL is how quickly the competitive landscape changes. I occasionally turn to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to get a quick read on momentum across the broader data-center and infrastructure group alongside my own fundamental work.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
KEEL in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026
KEEL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KEEL as a result. In 80 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The 10-day moving average for KEEL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for KEEL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEEL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for KEEL entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KEEL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 38 of 40 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 46 of 63 cases where KEEL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEEL just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEEL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +11.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEEL advanced for three days, in 216 of 253 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
KEEL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.100) is normal, around the industry mean (2.990). P/E Ratio (-2.200) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.323). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.205) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.684) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KEEL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEEL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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