GET DAILY SIGNALSLiberty Media (FWONA) Q3 Results Show Revenue Growth Amid Calendar Shifts and EPS Miss
Key Takeaways
- Liberty Media reported total revenue of $1.226 billion for the third quarter of 2026, up from $1.085 billion a year earlier, but slightly below the consensus estimate of roughly $1.27 billion.
- Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.43, missing the $0.55 analyst estimate by $0.12.
- Formula 1 held seven races in Q3 2026 versus six a year earlier, but calendar shifts — including moving the Bahrain Grand Prix to Malaysia — reshaped how season-based revenue was recognized.
- Operating income climbed to $237 million from $158 million, and net earnings attributable to Liberty stockholders reached $163 million versus $13 million in the prior-year quarter.
- Liberty completed a capital-structure transaction with Chairman Emeritus John Malone, reducing his aggregate voting power to roughly 3%.
- MotoGP results were pressured by fewer races held (five versus seven) and foreign-exchange and seasonal factors.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Liberty Media's Formula One Group holds the commercial rights to two major motorsport championships — Formula 1 and, since July 2025, MotoGP. Race schedules shift from quarter to quarter, so revenue and profit comparisons often reflect timing rather than pure demand trends. This report helps separate those effects to show the underlying strength in sponsorship, media rights, and hospitality. In my view, the Q3 2026 numbers also coincide with a simpler capital structure and lower voting stake for John Malone, which keeps the focus on the long-term growth of the racing businesses.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Liberty Media posted total revenue of $1.226 billion, compared with $1.085 billion in the prior-year period. All of that came from motorsport operations after the December 2025 split-off of the Liberty Live and Quint hospitality units. Diluted EPS of $0.43 fell short of the $0.55 consensus, and revenue landed a bit below the roughly $1.27 billion analysts expected.
Operating income rose to $237 million from $158 million. Net earnings from continuing operations reached $162 million, while net earnings attributable to Liberty stockholders totaled $163 million, up from $13 million a year earlier. Formula 1 ran seven races versus six last year, though year-to-date revenue stayed relatively flat due to two fewer events overall, with Adjusted OIBDA down about 5% year to date. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how FWONA stacks up against peers in the sector.
MotoGP held five races versus seven a year earlier, which contributed to a year-to-date revenue decline linked to fewer events, lower media-rights revenue, and a new hospitality deal now booked on a net basis. At quarter end, Liberty held roughly $2.3 billion in cash and liquid investments against about $5.5 billion in total principal debt, for consolidated net leverage of 3.0 times.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The report came in modestly below consensus on both revenue and EPS, yet the initial market response focused on the calendar-driven nature of the shortfall rather than any weakening in core demand. Management highlighted ongoing sponsorship growth, contractual fee increases, and record fan engagement, attributing the misses to timing and scheduling. The Malone transaction and forward plans such as an expanded 2027 sprint format and a return to Africa also shaped sentiment. Net leverage at 3.0 times and available revolving facilities offered some reassurance on the balance sheet.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, the 2026 calendar is now expected to total 23 races after the Bahrain Grand Prix moved to Malaysia and the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was cancelled, with a return to 24 races planned for 2027. These changes will continue to affect the timing of revenue and team payments, so quarterly comparisons should stay noisy.
Team payments stood at 58.7% of pre-team-share Adjusted OIBDA year to date, and management expects roughly 200 basis points of improvement in leverage on that metric after 2026, with the payout ratio likely to remain stable through the Concorde Agreement into 2030. For MotoGP, a new teams and manufacturers agreement running through 2031 and a refreshed management team position the business for faster growth, though currency moves and race mix remain variables.
Additional catalysts include expanding the sprint format to 10 races in 2027, adding Portugal and Turkey to next year’s calendar, and the new African Grand Prix slated for the early 2030s. These steps expand the revenue base, but results will depend on execution and sustained fan interest.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener for Deeper Analysis
One tool I’ve found helpful when reviewing earnings like these is Tickeron’s AI Screener. It lets me apply technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, and volatility filters to quickly compare FWONA with similar names and spot momentum shifts without manual effort. The customizable scans surface relevant ideas efficiently and have become a regular part of my workflow for tracking motorsport-related holdings.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for FWONA turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FWONA saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 59 of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FWONA just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where FWONA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
FWONA moved above its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FWONA advanced for three days, in 212 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FWONA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
FWONA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FWONA entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FWONA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.995) is normal, around the industry mean (13.089). P/E Ratio (107.094) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.466). FWONA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.506) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.376). Dividend Yield (0.054) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.195) is also within normal values, averaging (2.932).
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General Information
a company which engages in the business of media, communications and entertainment
Industry MoviesEntertainment
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