GET DAILY SIGNALSLoma Negra (LOMA): Key Focus Areas Ahead of 3Q26 Results
Key Takeaways
- Loma Negra is expected to report third-quarter 2026 (3Q26) results in early November, covering the three months ended September 30, 2026.
- Cement volumes are a central focus after second-quarter shipments slipped 1.4% year over year — still stronger than the industry's roughly 5% decline.
- Management has pointed to projects under Argentina's RIGI regime and newly granted road concessions as potential demand drivers for the back half of the year.
- Margins will be closely watched after second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA margin eased to 20.2%.
- The balance sheet remains a relative strength, with net debt to last-twelve-months Adjusted EBITDA improving to 1.30x as of June 30, 2026.
- Get more detail on LOMA's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts on Tickeron's dedicated pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to discover AI-driven trading strategies and automated market signals.
Why These Earnings Matter
LOMA, Argentina's leading cement producer, sits at the intersection of a fragile macroeconomic recovery and a construction sector still rebuilding from the sharp 2024 downturn. Its quarterly results are widely read as a real-time gauge of private and public construction activity across the country. The upcoming 3Q26 report arrives after a second quarter in which revenue rose 2.1% year over year to Ps. 238,053 million, but volumes remained soft amid heavy April rains and cautious retail demand. With September historically the strongest dispatch month and kilns restarting under improved energy contracts, investors will look for evidence that pricing power and a seasonal pickup can stabilize margins and reaccelerate earnings.
What the Numbers Could Show
Because Loma Negra reports in Argentine pesos under IAS 29, headline figures are best evaluated alongside volume and margin trends rather than isolated peso amounts. In the most recent quarter, 2Q26, net revenue reached Ps. 238,053 million (US$166 million), up 2.1% year over year, while Adjusted EBITDA declined 2.5% to Ps. 48,175 million and the Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 97 basis points to 20.2%. In dollar terms, EBITDA per ton rose 14% to US$32.1. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Heading into 3Q26, investors are watching whether cement, masonry, and lime volumes — down 1.4% year over year in 2Q26 — turn positive on stronger September dispatches. Key swing factors include pricing momentum, the restart of kilns under lower-cost energy contracts signed for the new production cycle, and early contributions from projects approved under the RIGI regime and new road concessions. Balance-sheet metrics, particularly the net debt to last-twelve-months Adjusted EBITDA ratio, which improved to 1.30x from 1.47x at the end of 2025, will also be monitored.
Market Sentiment Going In
Sentiment heading into the 3Q26 report remains cautious but constructive. LOMA's shares have been supported by an improving balance sheet, resilient dollar-based EBITDA per ton, and management's expectation that the recovery — while gradual and potentially volatile — should firm in the second half. At the same time, soft bagged-cement demand tied to retail self-construction and a still-limited credit environment have kept a lid on enthusiasm. The stock has historically shown sensitivity to both quarterly volume prints and peso-dollar dynamics, given that the majority of its debt is dollar-denominated. As a result, investors will weigh top-line progress against any renewed pressure on margins or foreign-exchange-related financial costs.
Forward Outlook and What to Monitor
Management has signaled that the recovery path is unlikely to be a straight line, with possible short-term volatility even as the underlying second-half trend improves. Several catalysts could shape the coming quarters. Projects approved under the RIGI regime are beginning to advance, and government road concessions are expected to translate into volumes over time, though neither has yet fully materialized in dispatch figures.
On the cost side, the company restarts kilns in September under energy contracts it describes as more favorable than the prior production cycle, which could ease per-ton costs and support margin recovery if volumes cooperate. Higher volumes would also help dilute fixed costs after the completed 25-kilogram bagging project added depreciation and packaging expenses.
Investors should monitor monthly cement dispatch data, peso-dollar movements, and any easing of monetary conditions or improvement in real wages and credit availability, all of which management has cited as factors that could strengthen demand. Sustainability initiatives, including progress on emissions reduction and circular-economy programs, remain longer-term considerations but are unlikely to drive near-term trading.
Using AI Tools to Refine My Analysis
In my view, combining traditional fundamentals with AI-driven insights helps spot patterns that might otherwise be missed. I recently turned to Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter for similar cyclical names and test how volume trends and margin shifts line up across the sector. It provides a quick way to cross-check ideas without manually combing through dozens of screens, which has become a regular part of how I prepare for reports like this one.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
LOMA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
LOMA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 49 of 59 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LOMA as a result. In 69 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LOMA turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
The 10-day moving average for LOMA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 18 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LOMA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for LOMA entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LOMA advanced for three days, in 210 of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
LOMA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LOMA's P/B Ratio (0.001) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.594). P/E Ratio (0.023) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.516). LOMA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.040) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.876). LOMA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.209) as compared to the industry average of (0.048). P/S Ratio (1.974) is also within normal values, averaging (2.242).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. LOMA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of cement and building materials
Industry ConstructionMaterials
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