Go to the list of all blogs
Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 30, 2017

Major Banks Warn of Impending Recession

There was a widely circulated Bloomberg article a couple of weeks ago, in which several major banks warned of an impending U.S. recession. Here is a quick summary of their assertions:

  1. According to Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley, falling correlations are sending a warning sign. He sees falling correlations between stocks and currency, currency and rates, and commodities as troubling. Morgan Stanley sees correlations following to their lowest level in a decade. The problem with this, according to Sheets, is that investors are "pricing assets based on the risks specific to an individual security and industry," while ignoring macro drivers like falling manufacturing data. He thinks the breakdown within and between asset classes is a product of investors just "looking for excuses" to remain bullish.
  2. Bank of America analysts warned that investors are ignoring signals in the earnings space. According to Bank of America, for the first time since the mid-2000s, companies that outperformed analysts’ profit and sales estimates across 11 sectors saw no upside boost from investors. They think the under-reaction is a late-cycle indicator, signaling that investors have already priced-in the gains.
  3. Citigroup analysts see a potential bubble forming. They are concerned that spreads between risk-free Treasuries and other types of debt may widen in the coming months thanks to declining central-bank stimulus, and as investors fret over elevated corporate leverage (driving corporate yields higher). But, they also think stocks can rally further before reaching their late cycle peak that would push them into bear market. 

 

 

And these weren't the only bearish forecasts. Economists at Oxford Economics Ltd. and Societe Generale SA also issued warnings about corporate margins starting to weaken and they showed correlations to past business cycle troughs. All in all, the forecasts across these major players were gloomy, but not outright bearish.

I think there's still a bit more runway for this expansion yet. U.S. GDP was just reported at 3% for the second quarter, and corporate earnings rose nearly 10% in Q2 - a majority of which rose more than analysts expected. I also like to look at the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to see if there are any signs of weakening, and there haven't been - at least so far. There has not been a recession to date when the LEI was high and rising, and guess what - it's high and rising. 

I'm staying the course throughout the balance of 2017, and keeping a positive view.  

Interact to see
Advertisement
Paper wallets are extremely useful tools – beyond being one of the most popular and secure cold storage methods, they make it simple to transfer coins between owners.You can access the funds on your paper wallet by “sweeping” (or importing) them to either a live wallet (like Trezor or Exodus) or an exchange service (like Coinbase). Most services allow you to import them directly from your wallet’s private key, but there are two key exceptions.
Learn the 27 essential intraday trading rules that every manual trader should master—and discover how Tickeron’s AI platform applies them automatically for consistent, emotion-free execution and smarter, real-time decision-making.
#investment#trading
A $2 trillion sell-off has investors asking: is 2025 the next dot-com crash or a replay of the 2008 recession? This deep dive compares both scenarios, outlines warning signs, and reveals how AI-powered trading strategies can help navigate rising volatility.
#trading#investment
New to trading? Discover 21 powerful lessons every beginner must learn—and see how Tickeron’s AI Double Agent strategies apply them in real time. From mastering risk to managing emotions, this guide helps you trade smarter, safer, and more confidently.
#investment#trading
From the railroads of the 1920s to the AI giants of 2025, market history shows that extreme concentration often precedes massive bubbles and crashes. This article explores five key turning points and how Tickeron’s AI helps traders navigate today’s bubble-prone landscape.
#investment#trading
U.S. tariff tensions rocked markets this week, sending tech stocks into retreat and safe-haven assets like gold and the yen soaring. As investors brace for major earnings and global policy shifts, volatility remains high across equities, currencies, and commodities.
#investment#trading
Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings could surprise investors as the EV giant looks to rebound from last quarter’s miss. With lowered expectations and increased volatility, Tickeron’s AI-powered strategy helps traders navigate both upside potential and downside risk.
#investment#trading
Gold is on a historic run—up 29% YTD with record-breaking inflows and growing macro tailwinds. Discover why smart investors are eyeing gold, silver, and miners for opportunity, and how AI trading tools are unlocking new ways to profit from the 2025 gold rush.
#investment#trading
Tickeron launches its innovative Double Agent Trading Bot, combining long NVDA trades with hedged NVDS positions. Using AI-driven pattern trading and real-time risk management, the bot achieves a 75% success rate, revolutionizing automated trading strategies.
#trading#investment
Tickeron’s AI trading bots are setting new standards in finance, achieving up to 86.6% win rates across leveraged and sector ETFs. Powered by advanced Financial Learning Models (FLMs), Tickeron’s AI delivers precision, adaptability, and real-time trading success.
#trading
Wall Street expects strong profit growth from the Magnificent Seven tech giants in 2025. Discover how to trade Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet using AI-powered Double Agent strategies and smart hedging with inverse ETFs like QID.
On May 2, 2025, a diverse group of companies across energy, financial services, basic materials, consumer discretionary, and healthcare will release their Q1 2025 earnings.
In April 2025, five tech giants—NVIDIA, Tesla, Meta, Palantir, and Amazon—each surged over 40%, driven by AI breakthroughs, strong earnings, and market momentum. Discover what fueled the rally and how Tickeron’s AI trading bots helped investors outperform even these star stocks.
#investment
Markets ended April with mixed signals—gold slid on trade optimism, Big Tech lifted the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin steadied near $94K. With U.S. GDP contracting and job growth beating forecasts, investors brace for more volatility amid tariffs and central bank moves.
In a turbulent market, Tickeron's AI-powered Double Agent Bot is outperforming traditional strategies. Leveraging real-time intraday signals and inverse ETFs, the bot posted a +9.77% quarterly gain while the S&P 500 dropped 9.28%. Here's how AI is reshaping trading.
#trading
As Warren Buffett announces his retirement, investors turn to his trusted Buffett Indicator—a ratio of market cap to GDP—as a key gauge of market valuation.
#investment
Markets move in repeating cycles—Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution, and Downtrend. Learn how to recognize each phase and deploy Tickeron’s AI-powered Double Agent strategy to adapt, protect capital, and profit in any market condition.
#trading
Discover how confirmation trading techniques—like moving average crossovers and volume-backed breakouts—can improve accuracy and reduce false signals. Learn how Tickeron’s AI automates these strategies for smarter, faster, and more disciplined trading.
#trading
Hedge funds are ramping up bearish bets on small-cap stocks, with Russell 2000 short interest hitting new highs. As macro headwinds mount and technical support teeters, Tickeron’s AI Double Agents step in to navigate the looming sell-off with precision.
#investment#trading#artificial_intelligence
SPY’s Momentum Indicator turned bullish on April 25, 2025, signaling a potential trend shift with a 90% historical success rate. This article explores how economic scarcity, technical signals, and AI-driven tools like Tickeron’s A.I.dvisor shape investor decisions in volatile markets.
#trading