GET DAILY SIGNALSMarqeta (MQ) Delivers Record TPV and Margin Expansion in Q3
Key Takeaways
- Total processing volume (TPV, the dollar amount of payments processed) reached a record $126 billion, up 29% year over year.
- Net revenue rose 8% to $176 million, while gross profit grew 7% to $122 million, landing at the high end of management's expectations.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusted for one-time items) climbed 28% to $39 million, a record 22% margin on net revenue.
- Net income of $115 million was lifted by a $107 million non-cash tax benefit tied to the release of valuation allowances on deferred tax assets.
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA growth guidance was raised to the low-to-mid 30% range, while gross profit growth guidance was maintained.
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Why Marqeta’s Results Matter
Marqeta’s third-quarter report offers a useful test of whether a modern card-issuing platform can sustain growth at scale while turning that volume into wider profit margins. The company has now posted several consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and rising adjusted EBITDA, so this update serves as a meaningful check on operating leverage. I was also watching for evidence that growth outside its largest customer relationships is helping offset the slowdown management had flagged earlier. With TPV now above a $500 billion annualized run rate for the first time, the quarter provides a clearer picture of Marqeta’s ability to expand its customer base while keeping expenses in check in a competitive fintech environment. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Marqeta reported net revenue of $176 million, up 8% year over year and slightly ahead of the consensus estimate of roughly $176 million. Gross profit increased 7% to $122 million, matching the top end of the company’s guidance range of 5% to 7% growth. Total processing volume rose 29% to a record $126 billion, marking the first quarter with TPV above $500 billion on an annualized basis.
Adjusted EBITDA grew 28% to $39 million, beating expectations, while the adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 22% of net revenue, up three percentage points from a year earlier. On a GAAP basis, net income came in at $115 million, or $1.09 per diluted share, compared with a loss a year ago. That figure included a $107 million discrete, non-cash tax benefit from the release of valuation allowances on certain deferred tax assets, which management linked to sustained profitability. Per-share results reflect the company’s one-for-four reverse stock split completed in June 2026.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into the report, sentiment was measured because management had guided for a meaningful deceleration in gross profit growth due to the lapping of the TransactPay acquisition, a large customer renewal, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) comparisons. Marqeta delivered gross profit at the high end of that range while posting record margins, yet the stock’s fuller post-earnings response was still developing, with shares closing near $17.80 on the day of the announcement. Investors appear to be weighing the strong profitability against the expected step-down in growth, as full-year net revenue growth guidance was trimmed to 11% to 12% from a prior 12% to 13%.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
For the fourth quarter, Marqeta guided to net revenue growth of 3% to 5%, gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid-20% range. For the full year, the company maintained gross profit growth guidance of 11% to 12% while raising adjusted EBITDA growth guidance to the low-to-mid 30% range.
Investors should monitor how quickly non-Block volume scales, since management noted that TPV outside its largest customer is growing at more than twice the rate of Block-related volume. Expense management and growth in high-margin verticals such as expense management and lending will also be important indicators of whether Marqeta can keep expanding margins while growth moderates.
Additional catalysts include the expansion of commercial payment capabilities, the partnership with Coinbase to broaden stablecoin infrastructure, and continued international momentum. Any change in the trajectory of customer renewals, BNPL volume, or take rate trends could influence the pace of revenue and gross profit growth in the quarters ahead.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When analyzing earnings like these, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics. It helps surface comparable names and emerging opportunities more efficiently than manual screening, which is especially useful after a quarter that shows both strong margins and moderating growth. The tool has become a practical part of how I cross-check ideas before digging deeper into the numbers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MQ in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 55 of 66 cases where MQ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The 50-day moving average for MQ moved above the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MQ advanced for three days, in 198 of 261 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 113 of 145 cases where MQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MQ moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 13 of the 18 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MQ as a result. In 73 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MQ turned negative on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
MQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.709) is normal, around the industry mean (16.593). P/E Ratio (206.889) is within average values for comparable stocks, (57.337). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.149) is also within normal values, averaging (3.648). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.283) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.561) is also within normal values, averaging (103.889).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MQ’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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