GET DAILY SIGNALSMarriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Q3 2026 Earnings: Tracking VPG and Guidance Updates
Key Takeaways
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, before the market opens, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Wall Street consensus calls for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $2.57 on revenue of roughly $1.42 billion, up from $1.69 and $1.26 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
- The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in seven of its last eight quarters, including a strong second quarter in which adjusted EPS of $2.31 topped the $1.97 consensus.
- Investors will focus on volume per guest (VPG)—a key timeshare metric measuring sales generated per prospective customer—after it surged 23% year over year last quarter.
- Management raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) outlook by $50 million to roughly $818 million last quarter, making further guidance updates a key watch item.
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Why This Earnings Report Matters
Marriott Vacations Worldwide's third-quarter report serves as an important checkpoint for a company navigating a management-led turnaround. With a newly reshaped executive team in place, the timeshare operator has rolled out a five-pillar strategy centered on owner engagement and tour operations. That approach contributed to last quarter's notable improvement in VPG. The broader leisure and timeshare sector continues to show resilient occupancy and steady sales, while Gen Z travelers now make up the majority of new timeshare buyers. Investors are watching to see whether the company can turn this demand into sustained, profitable growth. The results will also help shape expectations ahead of a planned Investor Day on December 9, 2026, where multi-year targets are expected to be unveiled.
What the Street Expects
Analysts expect Marriott Vacations Worldwide to report adjusted EPS of approximately $2.57 on revenue of about $1.42 billion for the third quarter of 2026. That would mark a roughly 52% increase in earnings per share and a 12% rise in revenue compared with the prior-year period. The market's optimism shows up in analyst ratings, where eight of twelve covering analysts rate the stock a "buy," with an average price target near $123. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. The primary metric to watch remains VPG, which rose 23% year over year in the second quarter. Investors will also listen for any update to full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, which management lifted last quarter to approximately $818 million.
Investor Sentiment Heading Into the Report
Sentiment ahead of the report appears broadly constructive. Shares have recovered toward the middle of their 52-week range, and recent analyst activity has turned more positive, including a "buy" initiation from JPMorgan in October with a $145 price target. The stock's rally after last quarter's beat reflects confidence that the new leadership's strategy is taking hold. At the same time, elevated expectations set a higher bar. With consensus looking for strong double-digit growth in both earnings and revenue, any sign that VPG growth is slowing or that guidance is not raised further could prompt a pullback. Balance-sheet improvements, including a recent $460 million securitization of vacation ownership loans, have helped ease concerns about liquidity and leverage.
What to Watch Going Forward
Beyond the headline numbers, several factors deserve attention in the quarters ahead. The sustainability of VPG growth stands out as the central question, given that the second quarter's 23% gain was unusually strong. Management has highlighted cost and overhead actions expected to benefit the second half of the year, so margin progression and the pace of expense savings will be important signals. Guidance will remain a focal point. Having already raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to roughly $818 million, the company's commentary on the fourth quarter and into 2027 will influence expectations. The December 9, 2026 Investor Day represents a notable catalyst, as management is expected to lay out multi-year financial targets. Industry dynamics also warrant monitoring. Strong resort occupancy and a shift toward younger Gen Z buyers have supported demand, yet the timeshare sector stays sensitive to consumer confidence and financing costs.
My Experience with Tickeron Tools
I've found Tickeron's AI Screener particularly useful when preparing for earnings like these. It lets me quickly filter stocks by industry, technical patterns, and performance metrics to spot comparable names and monitor how conditions are shifting across the sector. The tool has helped me surface ideas and track opportunities more efficiently during research sessions.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for VAC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
VAC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 65 of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
VAC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VAC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +4.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VAC advanced for three days, in 174 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 199 cases where VAC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VAC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
VAC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 27 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.965) is normal, around the industry mean (13.489). P/E Ratio (-12.278) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.082). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.170) is also within normal values, averaging (0.784). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.022) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.683) is also within normal values, averaging (1.049).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VAC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VAC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of real estate and resort management services
Industry HotelsResortsCruiselines
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