GET DAILY SIGNALSMatch Group (MTCH) Delivers Q3 Results: Revenue Dips Slightly as Tinder DAU Growth Returns
Key Takeaways
- Match Group reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $891 million, down 3% year over year (2% on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis), roughly in line with analyst consensus.
- GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.73, slightly above the $0.71 consensus estimate.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $344 million, with a 39% margin, exceeding expectations.
- Tinder's daily active users returned to year-over-year growth in September for the first time in more than three years, a key milestone in the company's turnaround.
- Hinge delivered strong results, with direct revenue up 19% and payers up 23% year over year.
Why These Results Matter
Match Group, the parent of Tinder, Hinge, and other dating platforms, has been working through a multi-year effort to restore user and payer growth following the post-pandemic slowdown. The third quarter serves as an important checkpoint for the turnaround, with investors focused on whether product updates at Tinder can stabilize the core brand while Hinge scales toward its $1 billion annual revenue target. With payer counts still declining across the portfolio and platform fees set to rise, this report provides a useful update on whether operational discipline and product investments are producing lasting progress.
The Quarter in Detail
Match Group released its third-quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2026, on November 2, 2026. Total revenue reached $891 million, a 3% decline year over year, or 2% on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis, coming in slightly below the roughly $893 million consensus estimate. Net income was $174 million, up 8% from the prior-year quarter, for a 20% net income margin.
GAAP earnings per share of $0.73 beat the $0.71 analyst consensus by a small margin. Adjusted EBITDA was $344 million, up 14% year over year, with a 39% margin that exceeded expectations of about $332 million. The prior-year quarter included a $61 million legal settlement charge; without that item, adjusted EBITDA fell 5% year over year, mainly due to higher marketing spend at Tinder and Hinge. Total payers declined 5% to 13.8 million, while revenue per payer rose 3% to $21.19. By segment, Tinder direct revenue slipped 2% to $480 million, Hinge direct revenue increased 19% to $221 million, and Evergreen & Emerging direct revenue dropped 20% to $176 million. Management guided to roughly $870 million in revenue and $327.5 million to $332.5 million in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter.
Market Reaction
Shares of MTCH moved lower right after the release, falling about 1.6% to near $41.41 in early trading. Investors appeared to focus on the modest revenue miss and softer fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance, even as the return of Tinder daily active user growth was seen as a positive development. The measured response suggests some caution about how quickly the turnaround can gain speed while maintaining profitability.
What to Watch Going Forward
Several factors will shape Match Group's path ahead. Investors will track whether Tinder's daily active user growth, which turned positive in September, continues through the fourth quarter and beyond. Management has expressed confidence in achieving full-year 2027 Tinder direct revenue growth, year-over-year payer growth by the fourth quarter of 2026, and flat monthly active users by the end of 2027. Hinge continues to perform well, and the company reaffirmed its goal of reaching $1 billion in full-year revenue in 2027.
Platform fees represent another area of focus. Match Group has noted that intellectual property fees could create a one-percentage-point headwind to adjusted EBITDA margin in 2027, stemming from Apple's EU changes and the end of a Google partnership agreement early in the year. The company is exploring ways to offset this impact. The Evergreen & Emerging segment remains under pressure from Azar's redesign and other challenges, and while management expects the pace of declines to slow, a return to growth will likely take more time. Disciplined cost management and ongoing share repurchases and dividends will also influence the balance between investment and returns to shareholders.
Refining My Research Process
In my analysis, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare MTCH against peers in the consumer internet space. It helped highlight how the company's margins and user metrics stack up on a relative basis.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MTCH's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 2 days
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for MTCH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +8.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTCH advanced for three days, in 180 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 123 of 185 cases where MTCH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTCH moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTCH as a result. In 64 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTCH turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 58 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
MTCH moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTCH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
MTCH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 7 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MTCH's P/B Ratio (-40.738) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.997). P/E Ratio (14.023) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-43.056). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.329) is also within normal values, averaging (17.274). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.994) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.148) is also within normal values, averaging (71.888).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTCH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTCH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of dating products
Industry InternetSoftwareServices
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