GET DAILY SIGNALSMosaic (MOS) Reports Third-Quarter Loss as Phosphate Operations Face Cost Pressure
Key Takeaways
- Mosaic swung to a net loss of $72.1 million, or $0.23 per share, in the third quarter of 2026, compared with net income of $411.4 million, or $1.29 per share, a year earlier.
- Adjusted (non-GAAP) loss was $0.19 per share, missing the roughly $0.02 consensus by $0.17, while net sales of $3.10 billion topped estimates by about $50 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 million from $806 million, pressured by higher raw material costs and lower volumes across all three segments.
- Phosphate was the weak spot, posting a $194 million operating loss versus a $102 million profit last year amid production curtailments tied to scarce, expensive sulfur.
- Potash remained profitable with $189 million in operating earnings, but the company lowered its 2026 potash production forecast to 8.6 million tonnes on softer ore grades at the Esterhazy mine.
- Operating cash flow improved to $284 million, and Mosaic locked in fourth-quarter sulfur supply at $615 per long ton, below the third-quarter average of $715.
Why the Quarter Matters
Mosaic’s third-quarter results offer a clear window into the current fertilizer cycle. Sharply higher raw material costs and planned production cuts are flowing straight through to earnings. A sulfur supply shock tied to Middle East shipping issues led the company to idle and curtail phosphate operations. At the same time, firmer agricultural commodity prices and better grower demand have tightened fertilizer markets overall. From what I see, the key question is whether pricing power can offset the input-cost inflation and whether the curtailments prove temporary or point to more sustained margin pressure in phosphates.
The Numbers in Detail
The Mosaic Company posted third-quarter 2026 net sales of $3.10 billion, down 10.1% from $3.45 billion a year earlier yet roughly $50 million ahead of consensus. The company recorded a net loss attributable to Mosaic of $72.1 million, or $0.23 per share, reversing a profit of $411.4 million, or $1.29 per share, in the prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, the loss came in at $0.19 per share, missing analyst expectations by $0.17. Results included $53 million in pre-tax notable items that reduced earnings per share by $0.04.
Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $324 million from $806 million, and the company booked an operating loss of $97 million. The Phosphates segment drove most of the weakness, moving to a $194 million operating loss from a $102 million profit. Sales volumes fell to 1.4 million tonnes from 1.6 million tonnes even as average DAP selling prices rose to $838 per tonne from $714. Potash stayed in the black with $189 million in operating earnings, down from $229 million, on 2.1 million tonnes sold. Mosaic Fertilizantes reported net sales of $1.3 billion and a $21 million operating loss, compared with $1.6 billion and $96 million of operating earnings a year earlier. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction
Shares of MOS edged down about 0.6% in after-hours trading after the release. The move felt relatively muted given the wider-than-expected adjusted loss. The revenue beat and signs of improving cash flow appeared to ease some concern, even as the swing to a net loss and heavy phosphate losses highlighted ongoing margin vulnerability to raw material costs. Sentiment ahead of the report had already been cautious, with the stock under pressure since the prior quarter. Investors now weigh whether stronger agricultural prices and lower fourth-quarter sulfur costs can begin to repair profitability against the backdrop of continued production cuts and reduced volumes.
Forward Outlook
Management’s fourth-quarter guidance points to continued but gradually improving conditions. Mosaic expects phosphate sales volumes of 1.3 million to 1.6 million tonnes and potash sales volumes of 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes, with average DAP plant prices projected at $820 to $840 per tonne. The company settled its fourth-quarter sulfur contract at $615 per long ton, well below the third-quarter average of $715, which should ease input-cost pressure as higher-cost inventory works through.
Mosaic now forecasts full-year 2026 potash production of 8.6 million tonnes, down from prior expectations, reflecting unfavorable geological conditions and lower ore grades at the Esterhazy mine. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $1.2 billion, with the company targeting below $1 billion in 2027 as part of its cost-discipline efforts.
Several factors stand out for the quarters ahead: whether sulfur supply normalizes and prices stay lower, how quickly curtailed phosphate capacity can resume, the path of agricultural commodity prices and global fertilizer demand, and the pace of working capital release expected in the fourth quarter. The company’s refinancing of long-term maturities out to 2028 has also strengthened balance-sheet flexibility.
Using AI Tools in My Research
I find Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful when I want to quickly compare MOS against peers on technical patterns, fundamentals, and volatility metrics. The platform lets me scan thousands of stocks with customizable filters, surfacing ideas that might otherwise take longer to identify manually. It supports a more systematic approach without replacing the deeper fundamental work.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
MOS's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for MOS moved out of oversold territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 30 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MOS as a result. In 61 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MOS just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where MOS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +4.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MOS advanced for three days, in 218 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for MOS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MOS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator for MOS entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.528) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.403). MOS has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-9.421) as compared to the industry average of (8.767). MOS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.020) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.867). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.126) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.645) is also within normal values, averaging (1.476).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MOS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MOS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of phosphate and potash
Industry ChemicalsAgricultural
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