MSTP: Examining the -35% Monthly Decline and +40% Quarterly Gain in This 2x MSTR ETF

Key Takeaways

• MSTP is a leveraged single-stock ETF that seeks 2x (200%) of the daily return of MicroStrategy (MSTR) common stock.
• Over the last 30 days, MSTP has declined roughly 35%, mirroring a sharp drawdown in the underlying MSTR share price.
• Despite the recent slide, the fund remains higher by about 40% over the trailing quarter after rallying from near $13 in early August to a peak near $34 in late September.
• As a 2x daily-reset product, MSTP amplifies both gains and losses in MSTR and is exposed to compounding and volatility effects over holding periods longer than one day.
• MicroStrategy's equity is widely viewed as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, making MSTP highly sensitive to crypto-market sentiment and broader risk appetite.
• For additional detail, explore MSTP Price Targets and Forecast pages.

MSTP Overview and Portfolio Exposure

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF (MSTP) is an actively managed, leveraged single-stock ETF that seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, corresponding to 2x (200%) of the daily percentage change of MicroStrategy common stock. The fund was launched in June 2025 and carries a net expense ratio of 1.50%.

Rather than holding MicroStrategy shares directly, MSTP obtains exposure through total-return swaps referencing MSTR, with a target notional of roughly 200% of net assets, collateralized by cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities. Assets under management (AUM) are modest, in the low tens of millions of dollars, and the fund reports only a handful of positions, dominated by the swap exposure. This concentrated, single-underlying structure means MSTP's performance is driven almost entirely by one company, with leverage roughly doubling the daily magnitude of that company's moves.

Because MicroStrategy has adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset while continuing to operate a business-intelligence software segment, its share price is closely linked to cryptocurrency markets. That linkage is the central theme behind MSTP's recent behavior. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to other leveraged products in the space.

MSTP Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter

Over the last 30 days, MSTP fell approximately 35%, declining from a close near $28 in early October to about $18.40 at the most recent close. The move was not a straight line: the fund experienced repeated intraday swings of several percentage points, consistent with a leveraged instrument tracking a high-volatility underlying.

The trailing three-month picture looks different. MSTP rallied from near $13 in early August to an intra-quarter peak near $34 in late September, a gain of more than 100% at the top, before retracing sharply. Measured from early August to the most recent close, the fund is still up roughly 40%, but it has surrendered most of its late-September gains. This pattern reflects a volatile, trend-reversal environment rather than a steady advance or decline.

What Drove MSTP Price in the Last 30 Days

Because MSTP targets 2x the daily move of MicroStrategy, the dominant driver of the recent decline was a pullback in the MSTR share price, amplified by the fund's leverage. MicroStrategy's equity has traded as a high-beta expression of Bitcoin, so weakness in cryptocurrency markets and a cooling of risk appetite among crypto-linked equities translated directly into downward pressure on MSTP.

Leveraged single-stock ETFs also face structural headwinds during choppy, two-way markets. Daily reset mechanics mean that a leveraged fund can underperform two times the underlying's cumulative return when prices are volatile, a concept often described as volatility decay. Repeated large daily moves in MSTR therefore compounded losses for MSTP over the period, even beyond the simple 2x relationship.

Sentiment around Bitcoin, funding and capital-markets activity tied to MicroStrategy's treasury strategy, and broader equity-market risk tolerance all contributed to the environment. When the underlying asset retraced, the 2x structure converted that retracement into a roughly double-sized drawdown for the fund.

What Drove MSTP Performance Over the Last Quarter

The quarter was defined by a powerful rally followed by a sharp reversal. From early August into late September, MSTP more than doubled as MicroStrategy shares surged alongside strength in Bitcoin and renewed investor enthusiasm for crypto-linked equities. The fund's leverage magnified that advance, lifting MSTP from roughly $13 to a peak near $34.

The subsequent unwind reflected the same dynamics in reverse. As Bitcoin and MSTR cooled, profit-taking, elevated volatility, and the compounding drag of a daily-reset structure accelerated the decline. The result is a quarter that remains positive on a net basis but carries a substantial drawdown from its highs, underscoring the two-sided risk embedded in a 2x single-stock product.

MSTP ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next

The most important factor for MSTP going forward is the direction and volatility of MicroStrategy shares, which in turn depend heavily on Bitcoin price trends, sentiment toward crypto-linked equities, and the company's ongoing treasury and capital-markets activity. Sustained Bitcoin strength or weakness is likely to flow through to MSTR and, with roughly double the magnitude, to MSTP.

Investors should also monitor volatility itself. Because of daily reset mechanics, prolonged two-way trading can erode a leveraged fund's value relative to the underlying, independent of the overall direction. Macroeconomic conditions, interest rate expectations, and liquidity trends that influence risk assets and speculative corners of the market are also relevant, as they shape the appetite for high-beta crypto proxies. Finally, fund-specific factors such as AUM, trading spreads, and the cost of maintaining swap exposure remain worth watching for a smaller leveraged product. No forward-looking statements here should be read as price predictions or investment recommendations. From what I see, this is important because volatility decay can quietly erode returns even in sideways markets.

Using Tickeron’s AI Screener for Leveraged ETF Research

I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener to be a practical addition to my workflow when reviewing products like MSTP. It lets me quickly filter leveraged ETFs by volatility metrics, performance patterns, and industry exposure, helping surface comparable ideas without sifting through raw data manually. The platform organizes technical signals and fundamentals into clear views that complement my own analysis of single-stock vehicles.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

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Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

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