GET DAILY SIGNALSNasdaq (NDAQ) Q3 2026 Earnings Reflect Steady Progress in Subscription Revenue
Key Takeaways
- Net revenue rose 13% year over year to $1.48 billion, or 14% on an organic basis, exceeding analyst expectations.
- Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 18% to $1.04, topping the consensus estimate of $1.02.
- Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR), a measure of predictable subscription income, reached a record $3.4 billion, up 12%.
- Index ETP (Exchange-Traded Product) assets under management hit a record $1.16 trillion, with $49 billion in quarterly net inflows.
- Nasdaq raised its full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance to $2.550 billion to $2.580 billion.
- GAAP diluted EPS increased 31% to $0.96, reflecting strong operating leverage across the business.
Why These Results Matter
NDAQ reported its third quarter 2026 results on October 22, 2026, continuing a stretch of double-digit growth that has shifted the company's makeup. What once centered on exchange trading now sees the bulk of revenue coming from recurring, subscription-style Solutions businesses in Financial Technology, indexes, and data. This evolution is important because it lowers dependence on trading volumes and reduces earnings swings. The quarter also featured record Index inflows and further steps toward "Always-On" 23/5 equities trading, set to begin December 6, 2026, placing the company at the heart of ongoing changes in global markets. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
Third quarter 2026 net revenue came in at $1.48 billion, up 13% reported and 14% organically, ahead of the roughly $1.46 billion consensus. Non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $1.04, an 18% increase from a year ago and above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.02. GAAP diluted EPS rose 31% to $0.96.
Solutions revenue grew 17% to $1.17 billion, or 79% of net revenue, with 18% organic growth. ARR advanced 12% to $3.4 billion. In Capital Access Platforms, revenue increased 20% to $641 million, driven by a 39% jump in Index revenue to $286 million. Financial Technology revenue rose 16% to $529 million, with segment ARR up 18% to $1.95 billion. Market Services net revenue edged 2% higher to a third-quarter record of $309 million, helped by stronger U.S. options and European equities volumes.
Non-GAAP operating income increased 15% to $843 million, expanding the operating margin by 100 basis points to 57%. The company lifted its 2026 expense outlook to a range of $2.550 billion to $2.580 billion due to compensation, severance, and marketing costs, while keeping tax rate guidance at 22.5% to 24.5%.
Market Reaction and Investor Views
Before the release, sentiment was positive, with models pointing to an earnings beat. The actual results supported that view: the revenue and earnings beats, record Index inflows, and broad Financial Technology growth all reinforced the recurring-revenue approach. These positives were balanced against slower 2% growth in Market Services, a 12% drop in U.S. equity derivatives revenue from lower capture rates, and the higher expense guidance that slightly tempers near-term margin expectations. The quarter also included $323 million in share repurchases and a $0.31 per share dividend, which added support for shareholders.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
After these results, attention will likely turn to a few key areas. One is the December 6, 2026 launch of 23/5 trading on The Nasdaq Stock Market, which could affect Market Services revenue and positioning as U.S. equities move closer to near-continuous trading.
Another is whether Index momentum holds. The company recorded a record $141 billion in trailing twelve-month net inflows, and keeping that pace will hinge on product innovation, international growth, and institutional use of Nasdaq-linked ETPs.
Expense management will also matter. With the raised 2026 guidance and a challenging fourth-quarter comparison in Capital Markets Technology from prior-year Calypso revenue, how growth spending is balanced against operating leverage will influence margins.
Finally, integration of recent moves such as Digital Liquidity Networks and the completed acquisition of LeveL Markets, an Alternative Trading System, will be worth monitoring. These steps expand involvement in digital assets and market modernization, offering longer-term potential alongside regulatory considerations.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
In my own work, I occasionally turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing earnings seasons. The tool helps scan for comparable companies using performance metrics, technical indicators, and AI-driven signals, which adds useful context without replacing fundamental analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NDAQ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 32 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NDAQ's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 46 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +3.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NDAQ entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.482) is normal, around the industry mean (3.954). P/E Ratio (27.780) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.124). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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