GET DAILY SIGNALSNational CineMedia (NCMI) Q3 2026 Earnings: What Investors Should Focus On
Key Takeaways
- National CineMedia is scheduled to report its fiscal third quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, followed by a conference call.
- Wall Street consensus points to revenue of roughly $72.2 million, up from $63.4 million in the year-ago quarter, with EPS estimates clustering near $0.03 per share.
- Investors will focus on total attendance, advertising revenue per attendee, national advertising revenue, and Adjusted OIBDA, a key profitability gauge the company highlights.
- Management has previously pointed to a strong 2026 film slate and year-over-year growth in upfront advertising bookings as a source of demand tailwinds.
- The company missed revenue expectations in the second quarter of 2026, making this report an important test of whether advertiser demand is re-accelerating.
- For more detail, explore National CineMedia's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on additional Tickeron pages.
- Discover curated, data-driven trade ideas by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
National CineMedia (NASDAQ: NCMI) operates the largest cinema advertising platform in the United States, reaching more than 18,500 screens across over 1,650 theaters, including major circuits like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal. Its performance directly tracks movie attendance and advertiser spending on in-theater video. Following a first half that included seasonal softness, competition from the Winter Olympics for ad dollars, and a revenue miss in the second quarter of 2026, this report provides a clearer signal on demand trends. A robust film lineup and positive management commentary on upfront bookings have increased the importance of this quarter as a checkpoint in the company's recovery story.
Consensus Estimates and Key Metrics
For the fiscal third quarter of 2026, consensus estimates call for revenue of approximately $72.2 million, which would mark a roughly 14% increase from the $63.4 million reported in the third quarter of 2025. Consensus EPS expectations sit near $0.03 per share, with individual estimates ranging from about $0.01 to $0.03 given the limited analyst coverage. In the year-ago quarter, the company reported $0.02 per share.
Investors will also track total attendance, which stood at 137.6 million in the second quarter, along with advertising revenue per attendee as a gauge of pricing strength. National advertising revenue, the largest segment at $44.9 million in the prior quarter, will draw attention, as will local and regional revenue. Adjusted OIBDA remains a focal point, since management uses it to exclude non-cash and one-time items for a clearer view of operations ahead of the stronger fourth quarter.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Investor Sentiment Heading Into the Report
Sentiment appears measured at this stage. Shares of National CineMedia have moved lower over the past year amid a mixed advertising backdrop and several quarters where revenue fell short of expectations, including the second-quarter 2026 miss. The stock’s modest market capitalization and thinner analyst coverage can lead to sharper moves after results. Key risks include the timing and strength of the fall film slate, competition for ad budgets from streaming and major events, and higher exhibitor fees. A beat on revenue and attendance would likely support the shares, while shortfalls in national advertising or revenue per attendee could add pressure.
Looking Forward: Areas to Watch
Management’s commentary on fourth-quarter demand will be important, given the typical boost from holiday moviegoing. Updates on national advertising bookings, programmatic growth, and revenue per attendee will help assess whether pricing trends are holding.
Cost management is another consideration. The company continues to work through a transformation effort and a shift from satellite to broadband delivery, so any details on savings or margin progress could clarify the path toward improved profitability.
Finally, signals on the 2027 film calendar and upfront discussions will offer longer-term insight. Because revenue ties closely to attendance and advertiser confidence, sustained box-office strength and stable or better ad pricing would be positive, whereas weaker attendance or pullbacks could create near-term challenges.
Exploring AI Tools for Stock Analysis
In my own review of names like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter opportunities based on patterns, fundamentals, and signals. It helps surface ideas across sectors without manual effort and has become a regular part of how I cross-check market context before earnings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NCMI's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for NCMI moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 38 of the 47 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 52 of 66 cases where NCMI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +7.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NCMI advanced for three days, in 181 of 246 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
NCMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NCMI as a result. In 75 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NCMI turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NCMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for NCMI entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.445) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.802). P/E Ratio (-19.750) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.593). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.850) is also within normal values, averaging (1.501). Dividend Yield (0.076) settles around the average of (0.084) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.879) is also within normal values, averaging (1.860).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NCMI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NCMI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of advertising, business meetings, event services and third-party theatre circuits
Industry AdvertisingMarketingServices
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