GET DAILY SIGNALSNational Fuel Gas (NFG) Reports Q4 Adjusted EPS Beat as Restructuring Plans Take Shape
Key Takeaways
- National Fuel Gas (NFG) reported adjusted earnings of $1.22 per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, beating the consensus estimate of $1.04 by $0.18.
- Revenue of $467.85 million came in slightly below the consensus estimate of $472.6 million.
- GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings were $97.5 million, or $1.02 per share, compared with $107.3 million, or $1.18 per share, in the prior-year quarter.
- For the full fiscal year, adjusted EPS rose 9% to $7.55, and the company raised its dividend for a 56th consecutive year to an annual rate of $2.22 per share.
- The company closed its acquisition of CenterPoint Energy's Ohio natural gas utility on October 1, 2026, and announced plans to separate its Integrated Upstream and Gathering business into a standalone company named Seneca Resources.
- For more detail on this ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore the additional pages available for NFG.
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Why These Results Matter in Context
National Fuel Gas Company operates as an integrated energy firm with segments in Integrated Upstream and Gathering, Pipeline and Storage, and Utility. Its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results, released on November 4, 2026, mark the end of a year defined by a sizable utility acquisition and the announcement of a plan to divide the company into two separate entities. In my view, the numbers themselves are less central than how they frame expectations for the upcoming separation and the integration of the new Ohio operations.
The Quarter and Full-Year Figures
For the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2026, National Fuel Gas posted GAAP earnings of $97.5 million, or $1.02 per share, compared with $107.3 million, or $1.18 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted EPS reached $1.22 after removing acquisition and spin-off costs, matching the prior-year quarter while exceeding the $1.04 consensus. Revenue totaled $467.85 million, just under the $472.6 million estimate. Over the full fiscal year, GAAP EPS climbed to $7.02 from $5.68, and adjusted EPS advanced 9% to $7.55 from $6.91. Operating cash flow came in at $1,272 million, with free cash flow at $199 million. The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment saw realized natural gas prices rise 7% to $2.80 per Mcf even as production fell 7% to 104 Bcf. The board also approved the 56th straight dividend increase, lifting the annual rate to $2.22 per share. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Shifting Focus
Shares showed a muted initial response. The adjusted EPS beat was offset by the modest revenue shortfall and the year-over-year decline in GAAP EPS. Attention quickly moved to the structural announcements, particularly the completed Ohio utility acquisition and the planned separation of the upstream business. From what I see, investor sentiment will hinge on how the market values a pure-play regulated utility versus the standalone natural gas upstream entity, along with the addition of roughly 335,000 new customers in Ohio.
Key Items to Watch Going Forward
The separation of the Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment into a new publicly traded company, expected to be called Seneca Resources, stands out as the most important development. The transaction is slated for the second half of calendar 2027, with National Fuel Gas planning to retain up to a 19.9% stake initially before divesting in a tax-efficient way. Integration of the CenterPoint Ohio utility, which doubled the Utility rate base, will also require close monitoring. Once the separation is complete, the remaining business is projected to be a fully rate-regulated natural gas company with about $5 billion in rate base. Progress on rate cases in New York and Pennsylvania will influence that growth trajectory. On the operational front, the Tioga Pathway and Shippingport Lateral projects entered service on November 1, 2026, supporting near-term revenue in the Pipeline and Storage segment. Natural gas price movements and upstream cost trends, including per-unit operating expenses and DD&A, remain relevant variables for earnings and cash flow.
Exploring AI Tools for Portfolio Insights
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful when comparing names like NFG against peers on technical patterns, fundamentals, and volatility metrics. The tool lets users apply customizable filters across thousands of stocks and ETFs to surface comparable ideas or track shifting conditions in the energy sector without manual effort. It’s become a regular part of my research workflow for staying on top of sector developments.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NFG in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
NFG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 24 of 51 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NFG as a result. In 42 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NFG turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NFG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NFG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 9 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for NFG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +0.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NFG advanced for three days, in 182 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
NFG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 300 cases where NFG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 29, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NFG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.905) is normal, around the industry mean (1.615). P/E Ratio (10.846) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.939). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.049) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.993) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a developer of oil and gas properties
Industry IntegratedOil
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