NVD ETF Rises +79% Over 30 Days as NVDA Encounters Headwinds

Key Takeaways

• NVD, the GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF, climbed roughly 79% over the last 30 days, rising from about $3.61 to $6.48.
• The fund seeks to deliver twice the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of NVIDIA (NVDA), so it rallies when NVDA shares decline.
• The advance was driven by a sharp sell-off in NVDA tied to a board investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang and reports linking him to an executive accused of working for Chinese intelligence.
• Several analysts downgraded NVDA or trimmed price targets in mid-November, adding pressure that lifted this inverse product.
• Over the last quarter, NVD gained about 64%, reflecting a broader stretch of pressure on NVDA and AI-sector sentiment.
• As a daily-reset leveraged inverse fund, NVD is designed for short-term trading and can diverge sharply from -2x NVDA returns over longer periods.

Fund Overview and Positioning

NVD is an exchange-traded fund from GraniteShares that targets daily results equal to two times the inverse of NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) performance. Traders and institutions often turn to it for short-term bearish exposure or to hedge long positions in the chipmaker. Because the fund resets leverage daily, longer-term results can vary meaningfully from a simple -2x multiple of NVDA’s move, which is why I monitor it mainly during periods of elevated volatility in the underlying stock.

Price Performance Over the Past Month and Quarter

From a close near $3.61 on October 13, NVD advanced to roughly $6.48 in mid-November, for a gain of about 79%. The pace picked up in early November amid several double-digit daily moves as NVDA shares came under pressure. Over the full quarter, the fund rose around 64% from levels near $3.96 three months earlier, though the path included a dip toward the low $3.00s in late September before the stronger rebound set in.

Drivers of the Recent Advance

The main catalyst was the decline in NVDA shares following reports that NVIDIA’s board had opened an independent investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang. The probe stemmed from accounts of a relationship with an executive accused of ties to Chinese intelligence. NVIDIA stated on November 8 that an independent committee would oversee the review and that it saw no indication of compromised national security or proprietary data. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. The uncertainty led to sharp selling, with NVDA dropping about 4.3% on November 9 and 5.5% on November 10. As the inverse product, NVD gained more than 10% on November 10 alone. Several firms, including Evercore ISI, RBC Capital, Stifel, William Blair, and Oppenheimer, responded with downgrades or reduced price targets, further supporting the move in NVD.

Quarterly Context and Broader Pressures

Over the three-month period, NVD’s performance mirrored a stretch of mixed sentiment toward NVIDIA and the wider AI-infrastructure theme. Concerns around data-center financing, the durability of AI spending, higher rate expectations, and potential regulatory tightening after the midterms weighed on the sector at times. The late-quarter investigation then intensified the downside in NVDA, turning a choppy environment into a clearer rally for the inverse ETF. The 64% quarterly gain illustrates how quickly these leveraged products can move when the underlying stock faces sustained or headline-driven weakness.

Factors to Monitor Going Forward

Future direction for NVD will largely track the opposite of NVDA price action. Key items to watch include the length and findings of the board investigation, any changes in NVIDIA leadership, upcoming earnings and guidance, plus macro indicators such as inflation readings, Federal Reserve policy, and trends in AI infrastructure spending. It is worth remembering that daily-reset leveraged inverse ETFs can experience return erosion in sideways markets, even if the longer-term view on the underlying proves accurate. NVD works best as a short-term trading or hedging tool, and its results should be viewed through that lens.

Integrating AI Tools Into My Workflow

In my regular research process, I frequently review Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to evaluate automated strategies that align with current market conditions. The platform offers a practical way to compare performance across hundreds of approaches, which helps me cross-check ideas on names like NVD without replacing my own analysis.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

Industry description