GET DAILY SIGNALSO'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Could See +22% Gain If It Hits $110 Analyst Target
Key Takeaways
- The central target of $110 is the arithmetic mean of 16 current analyst price targets reviewed, rounded from a calculated average of roughly $108.
- That target sits about 22% above the latest verified close of $89.89, a substantial move relative to recent trading.
- Individual analyst targets range from roughly $96 to $122, reflecting a wide but generally bullish-to-neutral spread of views.
- Strongest supports include resilient comparable sales growth, steady market-share gains, and a defensive aftermarket business model.
- Biggest risks center on a premium valuation, competitive and consumer-spending pressures, and potential multiple compression.
- Readers can track the company's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings on additional pages for deeper, up-to-date context.
Analyst Price Targets and Consensus View
ORLY is the ticker for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., the Springfield, Missouri-based specialty retailer and one of the largest sellers of aftermarket auto parts in the United States. This is a stock, not an exchange-traded fund, so its price targets come from sell-side equity research. A review of 16 recent, individually identifiable analyst price targets produces a low-to-high range of roughly $96 to $122. The arithmetic mean of those targets is approximately $108, which rounds to a central target of $110. This is a calculated figure, not an officially published consensus, though it is consistent with independent aggregator estimates that cluster in the mid-to-high $100s.
Views are predominantly constructive but not uniform. On the bullish end, UBS carries a $122 target, Jefferies $115, and Goldman Sachs $113, the latter after adding the shares to its US Conviction List. RBC Capital and Roth MKM sit at $111, while Evercore ISI, TD Cowen, and Raymond James cluster near $110. More cautious firms include Morgan Stanley at $108, Truist at $108, Barclays at $98, and Bernstein at $96 with a Market Perform rating. Baird's Neutral stance at $100 reflects a more measured view of the risk-reward. The dispersion between the low $90s and low $120s highlights genuine disagreement about how much valuation the market will award the company's steady growth. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Market Position and Path Toward the Target
The shares closed at $89.89 on November 6, 2026, near the lower half of their 52-week range of roughly $80.64 to $108.55. Reaching $110 would require a gain of about 22%, which qualifies as a substantial move rather than a marginal one. The path is underpinned by real operating momentum. In third-quarter 2026 results reported October 28, the company posted comparable store sales growth of 7.2%, GAAP EPS of $0.97 that beat estimates, and revenue of $5.12 billion that also came in ahead of expectations. Management raised full-year comparable store sales guidance to a range of 5.5% to 6.5%. A move toward $110 would require the market to price continued growth at a stable or modestly higher multiple, or for earnings to compound enough to justify a higher share price even without multiple expansion.
What Could Support a Move Toward the Target
- Resilient demand: An aging U.S. vehicle fleet supports both professional (do-it-for-me) and do-it-yourself repair demand, a structural tailwind for aftermarket parts.
- Market-share gains: O'Reilly has consistently outperformed peers on comparable sales, reflecting execution and distribution strength.
- Pricing and margins: Low-to-mid single-digit inflation and effective cost pass-throughs support revenue and margin durability.
- Capital returns: Ongoing share repurchases reduce the share count and can support EPS growth independent of operating leverage.
- Analyst sentiment: A preponderance of Buy and Outperform ratings, with several recent target increases, signals broad institutional confidence.
What Could Prevent the Target From Being Reached
- Valuation: The stock trades at a premium multiple, leaving limited room for disappointment if growth decelerates.
- Consumer pressure: Discretionary spending softness or weather-related demand swings could slow comparable sales.
- Competition: Aggressive pricing or investment by rivals could pressure share or margins.
- Structural uncertainty: The long-term EV transition and evolving vehicle technology could reshape repair demand over time.
- Multiple compression: Even with steady earnings, a lower market multiple could offset profit growth and keep the stock below the target.
Technical Levels and Market Structure
The shares have pulled back from a 52-week high near $108.55 and now trade near the upper $80s to low $90s. The $88–$90 zone has acted as recent support, while the prior peak around $108–$110 forms a meaningful resistance area that aligns closely with the central target. A sustained move to $110 would require clearing that prior high, making it both a price objective and a technical hurdle. The psychological $100 level also sits midway and may influence short-term sentiment.
Time Horizon and What Investors Should Monitor
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though individual firms differ in their modeling periods. Investors should watch quarterly comparable sales and EPS trends, full-year guidance updates, analyst rating and target revisions, and macro signals on consumer spending and interest rates. The next earnings report and management commentary will be pivotal in confirming whether the recent comparable sales acceleration is durable enough to support further upside.
Exploring AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
For traders seeking a more dynamic view, I rely on Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to complement fundamental work. The tool uses artificial intelligence to monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on shifting market conditions and technical behavior. It helps me spot changing trends efficiently without replacing core research.
Final Assessment
The question of whether O'Reilly Automotive can reach $110 hinges on a roughly 22% advance from its current level. The central target is the mean of 16 analyst targets, rounded from about $108, with a wide range from roughly $96 to $122. Supportive factors include strong comparable sales growth, raised guidance, share gains, and a defensive aftermarket model, while a premium valuation, competitive pressure, and potential multiple compression present the principal obstacles. Analyst disagreement is meaningful, and the prior 52-week high near $108.55 makes the target a technical resistance zone as much as a valuation milestone. Whether the stock approaches $110 will ultimately depend on sustained comparable sales momentum, disciplined margin execution, and the market's willingness to keep awarding a premium multiple.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
ORLY's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ORLY turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where ORLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
ORLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ORLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORLY advanced for three days, in 208 of 383 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 129 of 260 cases where ORLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ORLY moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 48%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 60 cases where ORLY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ORLY as a result. In 40 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
ORLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ORLY's P/B Ratio (-39.612) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.781). P/E Ratio (28.446) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.620) is also within normal values, averaging (1.494). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.798) is also within normal values, averaging (49.456).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ORLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a retailer of auto parts, tools, supplies, and accessories
Industry AutoPartsOEM
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