GET DAILY SIGNALSOld National Bancorp (ONB) Delivers Record Q3 Earnings With Strong Efficiency
Key Takeaways
- Old National Bancorp reported record net income applicable to common shareholders of $250.0 million for the third quarter of 2026.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.66, matching Wall Street's consensus estimate of $0.66.
- Total revenue of $720.4 million rose about 1% year over year but fell short of the roughly $732 million analysts had expected.
- Net interest income (NII) increased to $584.3 million, supported by strong deposit growth.
- The bank posted a record adjusted efficiency ratio of 44.9%, reflecting tight expense control.
- Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance calling for EPS growth above 15% and record annual earnings.
Why This Report Matters for Regional Banks
Old National Bancorp, the Evansville, Indiana-based parent of Old National Bank, has built a streak of record results on disciplined lending, a low-cost core deposit franchise, and steady cost management. This report matters because regional banks are closely watched as a gauge of credit health, deposit competition, and net interest margin trends in a shifting rate environment. After three consecutive quarters of volatility, investors were looking for evidence that Old National's profitability could hold up. The results delivered record earnings and efficiency, though a modest top-line shortfall against consensus raised questions about the pace of revenue growth heading into 2026's final stretch. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Old National Bancorp reported diluted EPS of $0.66, with adjusted EPS also at $0.66 after merger-related expenses were offset by a small valuation gain on a legacy pension settlement. This matched the consensus estimate of $0.66 and marked a notable improvement from the $0.46 reported in the same quarter a year earlier.
Total revenue was $720.4 million, up roughly 1% year over year but below the consensus of about $732 million. Net interest income rose to $584.3 million, up from $574.6 million a year ago, while noninterest income of $128.4 million declined sequentially from an elevated $153.6 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to the normalization of one-time items. Net interest margin was approximately 3.5%.
Profitability remained a highlight. Return on average assets was 1.37%, and return on tangible common equity reached 19.6%. The company achieved a record adjusted efficiency ratio of 44.9%, meaning it spent less than 45 cents of every revenue dollar on operating costs. Credit quality stayed stable, with total net charge-offs at 27 basis points and nonaccrual loans at 92 basis points of total loans, down from 123 basis points a year earlier.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Old National shares moved modestly higher in the session following the October 21, 2026 release, with early trading reflecting an increase of roughly 2%, according to market data. Investors appeared to weigh the record bottom-line results and disciplined expense management against a revenue figure that came in below consensus, driven in part by softer mortgage fees and a sequential decline in noninterest income. The reaffirmed full-year outlook provided a supportive signal. Sentiment remained constructive but measured, with attention shifting toward whether net interest income can keep growing and whether the revenue shortfall was a one-quarter normalization rather than a broader trend.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
Management left its full-year 2026 guidance intact, continuing to expect positive operating leverage, growth in tangible book value, and EPS growth exceeding 15%. The company now expects mid-single-digit loan growth in the fourth quarter, which would place full-year loan growth near the lower end of its 6%–8% range.
Investors should watch the path of net interest income and net interest margin, which management believes is modestly supported by the current rate environment, with spot margin trending slightly higher than third-quarter levels. The company also noted that full-year NII is likely to land near the lower end of its stated range even as fourth-quarter NII is expected to grow from the third quarter.
Other factors worth monitoring include the sustainability of fee income, where core banking and wealth fees remain resilient but mortgage activity is soft; the impact of late-quarter hiring on expenses; and credit trends, which continue to improve with criticized and classified loans down 16% year over year. Capital remains a positive, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio above 11% and $177 million remaining under the buyback authorization.
My Take on Using AI Tools for Earnings Analysis
When reviewing bank earnings like these, I often rely on Tickeron's AI tools to quickly cross-check patterns across the sector and confirm how ONB stacks up on efficiency and margin metrics. The AI Screener helps surface comparable names efficiently, which adds context without replacing my own fundamental review. It is a useful step in my process for staying objective during earnings season.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ONB's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ONB moved out of oversold territory on September 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 57 cases where ONB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ONB as a result. In 55 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONB just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +2.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONB advanced for three days, in 170 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
ONB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ONB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.126) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (10.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.482) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a regional bank
Industry RegionalBanks
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