GET DAILY SIGNALSOndas Inc. (ONDS) Delivers Record Q3 Revenue With Raised Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Ondas Inc. reported record third-quarter 2026 revenue of $167.5 million, up roughly 100% sequentially and more than 16 times the prior-year period.
- The company posted a GAAP net loss of $64.7 million, or $0.10 per share, narrower than the prior quarter's $89.7 million loss.
- Gross margin fell to 21.8% from 43.1% in the second quarter, reflecting production and delivery inefficiencies in the precision strike segment.
- Ondas raised its full-year 2026 revenue target to at least $550 million and guided fourth-quarter revenue above $250 million.
- Backlog climbed 36% sequentially to approximately $835 million, while the company ended the quarter with about $820 million in cash and short-term investments.
Why This Quarter Matters
Ondas Inc. has grown quickly through acquisitions, moving from a niche player in drones and networking to a broader defense technology company with autonomous systems and mission software. This report offers a test of whether that expansion can turn strong revenue growth into lasting profits. In my view, investors are focusing on gross margin trends, adjusted EBITDA, and the quality of the backlog to gauge durability. With short interest still high and ongoing losses, the results will influence how the market views the company's path into 2027. I also checked this using Tickeron's AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
The Reported Figures
Ondas reported record revenue of $167.5 million for the third quarter of 2026, up approximately 100% sequentially from $83.8 million and up 1,558% from $10.1 million a year earlier. On a pro forma organic basis, management indicated revenue grew 64% year over year. The figure exceeded the roughly $147 million consensus estimate.
GAAP net loss came in at $64.7 million, or $0.10 per basic and diluted share, narrower than the $89.7 million loss in the second quarter. The loss included $125.1 million in warrant-remasurement gains and $57.8 million in stock-based compensation. GAAP operating loss widened to $189.5 million, while adjusted EBITDA loss was $59.7 million.
Gross margin declined to 21.8% from 43.1% in the prior quarter, which management linked to production and delivery issues in the precision strike segment along with purchase-accounting effects. Guidance was updated with a full-year 2026 revenue target of at least $550 million, fourth-quarter revenue above $250 million, and a 2027 target of at least $1.1 billion.
Market Reaction
The stock moved lower after the release despite the revenue beat, showing a split between top-line strength and pressure on margins and cash losses. Sentiment before the report had been cautious, with shares down from August highs and below key moving averages. Short interest stood at roughly 40% of the float. The revenue surge and raised guidance provided bulls with a growth story, yet the margin drop, wider adjusted EBITDA loss, and non-cash items tempered the response. From what I see, the market is now more focused on the timeline for profitability than on growth speed alone.
Forward Outlook
The key question ahead is whether the third-quarter margin weakness reflects a temporary ramp-up or a longer-term cost of scaling. Management expects similar gross-margin levels in the fourth quarter before a recovery, and it has reiterated a target of adjusted EBITDA profitability at the operating-platform level in the fourth quarter of 2026. Investors should monitor execution against the $550 million full-year target and the new 2027 goal of at least $1.1 billion, along with backlog conversion and integration of acquisitions such as DZYNE and the pending Stemme and ARAN deals. On the risk side, acquisition expenses, warrant liabilities, inventory levels, and potential financing needs remain worth watching. The company has advanced its company-wide adjusted EBITDA breakeven target to the third quarter of 2027.
Using Tickeron Tools in Research
I often rely on Tickeron's AI Screener when analyzing names in the defense space. The tool helps filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals, making it easier to compare opportunities and spot candidates that align with specific criteria. It has become a regular part of my process for efficient market scanning.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ONDS in -9.95% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on November 13, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ONDS declined for three days, in 325 of 361 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONDS as a result. In 61 of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ONDS turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONDS entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ONDS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 30 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 50 of 63 cases where ONDS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +32.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONDS advanced for three days, in 230 of 263 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
ONDS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ONDS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.979) is normal, around the industry mean (5.210). ONDS has a moderately high P/E Ratio (98.556) as compared to the industry average of (3.688). ONDS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.778). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.694) is also within normal values, averaging (11.937).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ONDS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
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